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SpaceX Starship holds up under pressure, lines up Raptor engine test fire

Starship SN11 has (mostly) soared through the first two of three major tests standing between the rocket and a launch attempt. (NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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After a few false starts and some minor delays, SpaceX’s 11th Starship prototype (SN11) has made it through two of the three major tests standing between it and liftoff.

SpaceX rolled Starship SN11 from the factory to the launch pad on March 8th, just five days after Starship SN10 briefly became the first prototype of its kind to land in one piece. One or two issues with Raptor’s final landing burn caused SN10 to touch down faster than expected and eventually led to the rocket’s explosive demise around 15 minutes later. Still, the test flight was an almost unequivocal success and seemingly left SpaceX with more than enough confidence to speed through preparations for the next flight test.

Heading into the next day, SpaceX had hoped to kick off cryogenic proof testing but Starship SN11 required a bit more attention than expected and unknown bugs ultimately meant that only an ambient-temperature pressure test could be completed by the end of the test window. Those issues appeared to persist through the end of March 10th, preventing any kind of proof test attempt.

On March 11th, Starship SN11 was able to take its first real stab at a cryo proof and was loaded with liquid nitrogen (LN2), a cryogenic fluid with a density and temperature similar to Starship’s liquid oxygen and methane propellant but without the risk of a catastrophic fire or explosion. Over the course of three or so hours, SpaceX didn’t appear to fully load SN11 with LN2, a possible sign of a technical bug that could just as easily be an intentional part of the test design.

Oddly, parts of the evenings testing were unlike past cryo proofs and there’s a slight chance that the activity was actually a static fire attempt scrubbed well before ignition, though it’s impossible to say without official confirmation.

Otherwise, the most notable part of the cryo proof was a test of Starship SN11’s attitude control system (ACS) that involved firing each of the ship’s several cold-gas nitrogen thrusters at least 5-10 times for a total of several dozen bursts. The current generation of Starships mainly use those thrusters to augment their flaps and perform flip maneuvers during suborbital launch and landing attempts, while early orbital-class prototypes may use the same thruster system to control their attitude in the vacuum of space.

If last night’s cryo proof test was successful and gave SpaceX the data it needs to give SN11 a good bill of health, the Starship could potentially attempt its first Raptor engine static fire as early Friday, March 12th. Historically, SpaceX has never static fired a Starship prototype less than 12 days after its launch site arrival, meaning that a static fire tomorrow would smash the previous record by a factor of three. As such, it’s more likely that SN11 will need a day or two and be ready for a static fire attempt as early as Monday, March 15th.

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Either way, Starship SN11 is undeniably on a faster track than any of its three-engine predecessors and a clean static fire on Friday or Monday would leave a launch next week – SpaceX’s current target– well within reach.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk responds to Volvo’s latest LiDAR decision

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to reports that Volvo is officially discontinuing the LiDAR sensor on two of its cars.

Volvo announced that it would officially scrap LiDAR systems on its EX90 and ES90 vehicles in various markets. In Norway, owners will get a €1,800 compensation for features that will never arrive due to this decision. There will be no option to remove the unit from vehicles, either.

The issue stems from Volvo’s supplier, Luminar, and its bankruptcy filing. Luminar will no longer be able to supply LiDAR units to Volvo for the EX90 and ES90, effectively axing any use the unit has on vehicles. Volvo will phase out the data collection processes via the LiDAR system, and it will not be utilized whatsoever.

Musk saw the story on X and responded, stating:

“I did try to warn them. Humans drive using neural nets and optical sensors. Same is true for robot cars.”

Musk has been publicly vocal about his disdain for LiDAR systems, once calling them “a fool’s errand,” as he has consistently kept the outlook that they are not needed for effective self-driving.

The typical example used as evidence for this by Musk is humans themselves: made with only eyes and memories, humans are capable of navigating a car by using what they can see and what they’ve personally experienced on the road.

Elon Musk argues lidar and radar make self driving cars more dangerous

“Same is true for robot cars,” Musk says, as Teslas have eight exterior cameras that help see everything surrounding the vehicle, and a neural network that analyzes behavior and tendencies with every mile driven.

Tesla is a vision-only self-driving company that ditched sensors and radar several years ago in favor of cameras. Behind this effort, the company has established a reputation for having one of the most robust self-driving platforms in the world.

Musk’s big bet with Tesla on its self-driving program’s strategy has widely paid off. Other companies continue to utilize things like LiDAR, radar, and sensors for effective self-driving, but Tesla has shown that there is more than one way to give consumers a strong and accurate driver assistance suite.

The real question is: who will be the first company to take Musk’s advice and attempt a self-driving platform based on cameras only, or even license FSD for themselves?

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