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SpaceX Starship briefly becomes largest rocket in history – now what’s next?
On August 6th, after a great deal of anticipation, SpaceX stacked a Starship on top of a Super Heavy booster for the first time ever, very briefly assembling the largest rocket in history.
However, barely an hour after the two stages were integrated and (presumably) latched together, SpaceX lifted Starship (S20) off the booster, returned it to its transport stand, and rolled the ship back to the build site later that day. Though an extreme sensitivity to wind conditions has delayed the procedure, Super Heavy Booster 4 (B4) also appears to be on track to be removed from the orbital launch mount and sent either back to the factory or to a suborbital launch mount that’s been modified for booster testing.
For those that followed the process closely in the days and weeks prior, the fact that Starship’s first full assembly was just a fit check (and, really, more like 50:50 between fit check and photo op) came as no surprise. In the lead-up, it became clear through several reports that CEO Elon Musk had challenged SpaceX to stack Ship 20 and Booster 4 by August 5th and flown in several hundred employees normally stationed elsewhere to accomplish the feat.
Ignoring weather delays that prevented stacking on August 5th, SpaceX met Musk’s challenge in all but the literal sense, assembling the world’s largest rocket into one integrated stack for the first time ever. Even more significantly, despite the fact that SpaceX could have easily decided to stack two not-for-flight prototypes to sort of achieve the same feat, both stages – Ship 20 and Booster 4 – involved in the August 6th milestone are nominally destined for flight.
Barring surprises, the same exact pair is scheduled to support Starship’s first orbital test flight as early as this year. Before they can be cleared for flight, however, a great deal of work must still be completed – work that in some cases is unprecedented in the history of the Starship program.
Not long after the stacking milestone, Musk himself sketched out a few of the tasks still in front of the rocket. Namely, Musk says that SpaceX must still complete Starship S20’s partially-finished heat shield, install some form of heat shield(s) to protect Super Heavy Booster 4’s 29 naked Raptor engines; finish installing, plumbing, and activating 4-7 massive custom propellant storage tanks; and assemble, install, and activate a giant mechanical umbilical arm on the launch tower to fuel and power Starship.
All are undoubtedly crucial and Starship is unlikely to launch before any of them are more or less complete. However, the booster and ship themselves are arguably far more of a pressure point. Before they can be deemed ready for flight, both the ship and booster must complete unprecedented test campaigns on the ground.
Ship 20 will need to complete cryogenic proof testing to verify that the first Starship with six Raptor engine mounts is structurally sound. SpaceX has already modified one of its two suborbital Starship launch mounts for that purpose. Once cryo proof and hydraulic ram testing is complete, those six rams will likely be removed and six Raptor engines will be installed in their place, potentially setting up Ship 20 to become the first Starship prototype to static fire six engines – and any number of Raptor Vacuum engines.
Super Heavy Booster 4 will be faced with an even more ambitious static fire test campaign as SpaceX likely gradually installs more and more engines. Depending on how focused SpaceX is on speed over thoroughness, that process could involve gradually adding 2-5 engines after every static fire or could result in SpaceX starting with 4-9 engines and then immediately jumping from 9 to a full 29-Raptor static fire.
Only after completing those crucial qualification tests is SpaceX likely to stack Ship 20 and Booster 4 for a second time and enter the first true full-stack Starship launch flow – hopefully culminating in the first orbital launch attempt later this year, but only as soon as the FAA completes an environmental review and approves the rocket’s launch license. Technically, FAA approval could come next month or it could take the agency a year or more – it’s almost impossible to predict without official information. However, given SpaceX’s track record with Starship prototypes and Booster B3, it’s likely that a flightworthy Starship and Super Heavy will be stacked on the pad and ready to launch just a few months from now.
Stay tuned for updates on that potential standoff in the making and Starship’s progress towards its first orbital test flight.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
