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SpaceX customer reaffirms third Falcon Heavy mission’s Q2 2019 launch target

Falcon Heavy prepares for its inaugural February 2018 launch. (SpaceX)

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Taiwan’s National Space Organization (NSO) has reaffirmed a Q2 2019 launch target for SpaceX’s third-ever Falcon Heavy mission, a US Air Force-sponsored test launch opportunity known as Space Test Program 2 (STP-2).

Set to host approximately two dozen customer spacecraft, one of the largest and most monetarily significant copassengers riding on STP-2 is Formosat-7, a six-satellite Earth sensing constellation built with the cooperation of Taiwan’s NSO and the United States’ NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) for around $105M. If successfully launched, Formosat-7 will dramatically expand Taiwan’s domestic Earth observation and weather forecasting capabilities, important for a nation at high risk of typhoons and flooding rains.

Although Taiwan officials were unable to offer a target more specific than Q2 2019 (April to June), it’s understood by way of NASA comments and sources inside SpaceX that STP-2’s tentative launch target currently stands in April. For a number of reasons, chances are high that that ambitious launch target will slip into May or June. Notably, the simple fact that Falcon Heavy’s next two launches (Arabsat 6A and STP-2) are scheduled within just a few months of each other almost singlehandedly wipes out any possibility that both Heavy launches will feature all-new side and center boosters, strongly implying that whichever mission flies second will be launching on three flight-proven boosters.

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Falcon Heavy’s first static fire, Feb. 2018. (SpaceX)

To further ramp up the difficulty (and improbability), those three flight-proven Block 5 boosters would have to launch as an integrated Falcon Heavy, safely land (two by landing zone, one by drone ship), be transported to SpaceX facilities, and finally be refurbished and reintegrated for their second launch in no more than 30 to 120 days from start to finish. SpaceX’s record for Falcon 9 booster turnaround (the time between two launches) currently stands at 72 days for Block 4 hardware and 74 days for Block 5, meaning that the company could effectively need to simultaneously break its booster turnaround record three times  in order to preserve a number of possible launch dates for both missions.

If it turns out the USAF is actually unwilling to fly its first Falcon Heavy mission on all flight-proven boosters (a strong possibility) or that that has never been the plan, STP-2’s claimed Q2 2019 target would likely have to slip several months into 2019. This would afford SpaceX more time and resources to build an extra three new Falcon Heavy boosters (two sides, one center), each of which requires a bare minimum of several weeks of dedicated production time and months of lead time (at least for the center core), all while preventing or significantly slowing the completed production of other new Falcon boosters.

The exact state of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy production is currently unknown, with indications that the company might be building or have already finished core number B1055 or higher, but it’s safe to say that there is not exactly a lot of slack in the production lines in the first half of 2019. Most important, SpaceX likely needs to begin production of the human-rated Falcon 9 boosters that will ultimately launch the company’s first two crewed Crew Dragons as early as June and August, respectively.

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If the first Falcon 9 set to launch an uncrewed Crew Dragon (B1051) is anything to go off of, each human-rated Falcon 9 is put through an exceptionally time-consuming and strenuous range of tests to satisfy NASA’s requirements, requiring a considerable amount of extra resources (infrastructure, staff, time) to be produced and readied for launch. B1051 likely spent 3+ months in McGregor, Texas performing checks and one or several static fire tests, whereas a more normal Falcon booster typically spends no more than 3-6 weeks at SpaceX’s test facilities before shipping to its launch pad.

Ultimately, time will tell which hurdles the company’s executives (and hopefully engineers) have selected for its next two Falcon Heavy launches: an extraordinary feat of Falcon reusability or a Tesla-reminiscent period of Falcon production hell?


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla’s biggest rival in China reported a big profit decline once again

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(Credit: BYD)

Tesla’s biggest rival in China reported a big decline in its profitability for the second straight quarter, and a loss of one-third compared to the same quarter last year.

BYD overtook Tesla as the best-selling EV maker in China in the fourth quarter of 2023, finally surpassing the company in terms of sales in the region.

Is Tesla really losing to BYD, or just playing a different game?

The Chinese market is one of the most competitive in the world, especially for EVs, as the industry is healthy with young and scrappy companies looking to sell the best possible tech in their vehicles.

BYD reported its earnings on Thursday and said that its profit had slumped by 33 percent compared to the same quarter last year. For this year’s third quarter, BYD reported a net profit of 7.8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), a 32.6 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

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Its revenue was 195 billion yuan ($27.4 billion), which was only a 3 percent decrease compared to Q3 2024.

The drop in profits and revenue can mostly be attributed to the ongoing growth of competition in the Chinese market. The increased competition in China has pushed companies to turn to overseas markets in response, according to CnEVPost.

BYD is one of those companies, and it is attempting to push sales upward by entering new markets, especially in Europe, where the company sold more than 13,000 units in EU countries in September alone.

This was a 272 percent increase year over year, a major piece of evidence that it has a lot of potential in foreign markets.

The drop in financial figures is likely a short-term issue for BYD, as it has already established itself as a formidable competitor to many companies in many markets. In Q1, it reported an increase in profit by 100 percent compared to the same time span the year prior.

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As it works to expand to even more markets in the world, it will continue to build upon its already-solid reputation.

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GM takes latest step to avoid disaster as EV efforts get derailed

There was an even larger step taken this morning, as the Detroit Free Press reported that GM was idling its Factory Zero plant in Michigan until late November, placing about 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff status.

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Credit: GM

General Motors has taken its latest step to avoid financial disaster as its electric vehicle efforts have been widely derailed.

GM’s electric vehicle manufacturing efforts started off hot, and CEO Mary Barra seemed to have a real hold on how the industry and consumers were starting to evolve toward sustainable powertrains. Even former President Joe Biden commended her as being a major force in the global transition to EVs.

However, the company’s plans have not gone as they’ve drawn them up. GM has reported some underwhelming delivery figures in recent quarters, and with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit, the company is planning for what is likely a substantial setback in its entire EV division.

Earlier this month, the company reported it would include a $1.6 billion charge in its quarterly earnings results from EV investments. It was the first true sign that things with GM’s EV projects were going to slow down.

There was an even larger step taken this morning, as the Detroit Free Press reported that GM was idling its Factory Zero plant in Michigan until late November, placing about 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff status.

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This is in addition to the 280 employees it has already laid off after production cuts that happened earlier this year at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant.

After November 24, GM will bring back 3,200 people to work until January 5 to operate both shifts. On January 5, GM is expected to keep 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff.

GM is not the only legacy automaker to make a move like this, as Ford has also started to make a move that reflects a cautious tone regarding how far and how committed it can be to its EV efforts.

After the tax credit was lost, it seemed to be a game of who would be able to float their efforts longest without the government’s help. Tesla CEO Elon Musk long said that the loss of these subsidies would help the company and hurt its competitors, and so far, that is what we are seeing.

Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies

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However, Tesla still has some things to figure out, including how its delivery numbers will be without the tax credit. Its best quarter came in Q3 as the credit was expiring, but Tesla did roll out some more affordable models after the turn of the quarter.

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Tesla expands Robotaxi geofence, but not the garage

This has broadened its geofence to nearly three times the size of Waymo’s current service area, which is great from a comparative standpoint. However, there seems to be something that also needs to be expanded as the geofence gets larger: the size of the Robotaxi fleet.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi geofence four times, once as recently as this week.

However, the company has seemingly kept its fleet size relatively small compared to the size of the service area, making some people — even pro-Tesla influencers — ask for more transparency and an expansion of the number of vehicles it has operating.

Over the past four months, Tesla has done an excellent job of maintaining growth with its service area in Austin as it continues to roll out the early stages of what is the Robotaxi platform.

The most recent expansion brought its size from 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).

Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move

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This has broadened its geofence to nearly three times the size of Waymo’s current service area, which is great from a comparative standpoint. However, there seems to be something that also needs to be expanded as the geofence gets larger: the size of the Robotaxi fleet.

Tesla has never revealed exactly how many Model Y vehicles it is using in Austin for its partially driverless ride-hailing service (We say partial because the Safety Monitor moves to the driver’s seat for freeway routes).

When it first launched Robotaxi, Tesla said it would be a small fleet size, between 10 and 20 vehicles. In late August, after its second expansion of the service area, it then said it “also increased the number of cars available by 50 percent.”

Tesla reveals it has expanded its Robotaxi fleet in Austin

The problem is, nobody knows how many cars were in the fleet to begin with, so there’s no real concrete figure on how many Robotaxis were available.

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This has caused some frustration for users, who have talked about the inability to get rides smoothly. As the geofence has gotten larger, there has only been one mentioned increase in the fleet.

Tesla did not reveal any new figures or expansion plans in terms of fleet size in the recent Q3 Earnings Call, but there is still a true frustration among many because the company will not reveal an exact figure.

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