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SpaceX set to launch 40 satellites on fourth dedicated rideshare mission

Falcon 9 is set to launch its fourth dedicated SpaceX rideshare mission. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX says a Falcon 9 rocket is on track to launch its fourth dedicated rideshare mission no earlier than (NET) 12:24 pm EDT (16:24 UTC) on Friday, April 1st.

Known as Transporter-4, SpaceX will launch the batch of 40 customer satellites out of its Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad. Poor weather means that the company currently has a roughly 30% chance of favorable conditions on April 1st, improving to 50% on April 2nd and 80% on April 4th. Following the first NASA Space Launch System (SLS) rocket’s trip to a nearby launch pad, SpaceX also has to work around the agency’s plans to attempt an important wet dress rehearsal (WDR) test as early as April 3rd, preventing any launches that day.

SLS has already partially contributed to delays to Axiom-1 – the first all-private astronaut launch to the International Space Station – and could potentially disrupt Transporter-4 if weather or Falcon 9 fail to cooperate on Friday or Saturday.

Transporter-4’s payload of 40 satellites is the smallest number SpaceX has ever manifested on one of its dedicated rideshare missions. It’s unclear why so few satellites will be aboard, but one customer in particular likely explains why the company can launch such a small payload. That customer is Germany’s national space agency (DLR), which has manifested EnMAP – a hyperspectral Earth observation satellite – on Transporter-4. EnMAP itself is quite a bizarre case: the wildly overambitious smallsat was initially scheduled to launch as early as 2012 but has suffered a full decade of delays as endless issues arose. Painfully, those delays mean that EnMAP – a spacecraft largely designed before 2010 – is merely the latest in a long line of similarly capable satellites. Italy, for example, began work on an almost identically capable spacecraft – PRISMA – in 2008 and launched it in 2019 for ~$140 million.

According to one estimate, EnMAP’s cost has likely ballooned from ~$100 million to more than $330 million. In other words, it’s fairly reasonable to assume that SpaceX was able to charge DLR quite a bit more than Transporter-4’s other rideshare customers. SpaceX could have positioned it as a heavily discounted dedicated launch that just so happens to carry some secondary payloads – perhaps charging ‘just’ $15-30 million. EnMAP (950 kg or 2100 lb) is slightly heavier than the maximum weight SpaceX’s one-size-fits-all pricing allows for, but a customer with a similar 830 kilogram (1830 lb) spacecraft could launch it for as little as $4.6 million on a Transporter mission.

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Of Transporter-4’s 40 payloads, at least 16 are using intermediaries like Spaceflight, Exolaunch, and D-Orbit, who then deal with SpaceX for the satellite owners. Excluding EnMAP, at least six other customers likely booked directly through SpaceX. Combined, total Transporter-4 revenue before EnMAP could be as low as ~$13 million. According to a SpaceX executive speaking in 2020, the total cost of a Falcon 9 launch with a recoverable, flight-proven booster is $28 million. Given that some executives have compared Transporter missions to public transit, it’s possible that SpaceX is willing to launch some rideshare missions even knowing they will lose money, but it’s hard to imagine it would burn $10-15 million (or more) instead of just delaying a few months to add more payloads.

Even though EnMAP is thus likely picking up all of financial slack, Transporter-4 is still a good demonstration of SpaceX’s flexibility – flexibility that current or prospective providers with much smaller rockets simply can’t match. With Falcon 9, SpaceX can just throw a 1-ton, $300 million spacecraft on top of a several-dozen-satellite rideshare mission and still recover both the booster and fairing without issue – all while charging its smaller customers a more or less unbeatable $1.1 million per 200-kilogram slot and $5500 for each additional kilogram.

SpaceX will begin streaming its first Transporter-4 launch attempt around 12:10 pm EDT (16:10 UTC).

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.'”

The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Elon Musk

Tesla expands Robotaxi program in Austin to new riders

Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, as several people have received invitations to participate and take rides.

Tesla first launched the Robotaxi platform on June 22. It invited a handful of people to participate in the first-ever public rides. We were lucky enough to get an invitation, and our permissions have been expanded in the Bay Area pilot program as well.

The group was small and consisted of big names in the Tesla community. It expanded and is continuing to offer these exclusive invitations to notable members of the Tesla community.

There have been fewer than five subsequent invitations after the first group’s were sent in late June:

Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.

Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence shape is an FU by Elon Musk to the competition

“We are being very cautious. We do not want to take any chances, so we are going to go cautiously. But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper-exponential rate,” CEO Elon Musk said during the Q2 Earnings Call.

Eventually, the Robotaxi platform will not require an invite, and it will operate without geofences. Musk believes Tesla can get there within three or six months, and plans to have at least half of the U.S. population with access to a Robotaxi by the end of the year:

“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals. I think we will technically be able to do it. Assuming we have regulatory approvals, it’s probably addressing half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.”

Tesla plans to have regulatory approval in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida sooner than in other states.

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Tesla makes major change at Supercharger Diner amid epic demand

To ensure that menu items are both available in plentiful quantities and fresh, the menu could feature some seasonal options moving forward.

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tesla diner
Credit: Tesla

Tesla has made a major change at its Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles as the location is experiencing epic amounts of demand after launch.

The Supercharger Diner was an idea of CEO Elon Musk’s way back in 2018. It took some time to come to fruition, but it has finally opened, serving its first customers in July.

Tesla Supercharger Diner officially opens: menu, prices, features, and more

Upon its launch, people lined up around the block to give the restaurant a try. There were some who admitted to waiting 13 hours for the doors to open, which finally did at 4:20 p.m. local time.

If you know anything about Tesla, you know that the time fits the bill for the company.

Tesla Cybertruck leftovers are the main course at the Supercharger Diner

Nevertheless, it has basically been a non-stop operation since its grand opening. It’s already available to serve customers 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. These hours, along with the long-awaited grand opening, have brought tens of thousands of customers in the first few weeks.

As a result, the Diner’s chef, Eric Greenspan, revealed there will be some things that will no longer be on the menu as it handles “unprecedented demand.”

He told Eater the menu would be “forever evolving.” It has, as a result, now been void of the following menu items:

  • Market Salad
  • Club Sandwich
  • Hashbrown Bites
  • Biscuits and Red Gravy
  • Chocolate Chip Cookies
  • Vegan Patty option for Burger
  • Waffles are now only served in the morning, instead of all day
  • Soft serve will return this week. It’s provided by a local farm, which couldn’t handle the demand
  • Reimagined fountain drinks

Tesla focused on sourcing a vast majority of the food from local sources. This is likely why it has been forced to scale back much of its menu for the time being. When restaurants source their food and beverages locally, their menus change frequently.

To ensure that menu items are both available in plentiful quantities and fresh, the menu could feature some seasonal options moving forward.

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