News
SpaceX set to launch 40 satellites on fourth dedicated rideshare mission
SpaceX says a Falcon 9 rocket is on track to launch its fourth dedicated rideshare mission no earlier than (NET) 12:24 pm EDT (16:24 UTC) on Friday, April 1st.
Known as Transporter-4, SpaceX will launch the batch of 40 customer satellites out of its Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad. Poor weather means that the company currently has a roughly 30% chance of favorable conditions on April 1st, improving to 50% on April 2nd and 80% on April 4th. Following the first NASA Space Launch System (SLS) rocket’s trip to a nearby launch pad, SpaceX also has to work around the agency’s plans to attempt an important wet dress rehearsal (WDR) test as early as April 3rd, preventing any launches that day.
SLS has already partially contributed to delays to Axiom-1 – the first all-private astronaut launch to the International Space Station – and could potentially disrupt Transporter-4 if weather or Falcon 9 fail to cooperate on Friday or Saturday.
Transporter-4’s payload of 40 satellites is the smallest number SpaceX has ever manifested on one of its dedicated rideshare missions. It’s unclear why so few satellites will be aboard, but one customer in particular likely explains why the company can launch such a small payload. That customer is Germany’s national space agency (DLR), which has manifested EnMAP – a hyperspectral Earth observation satellite – on Transporter-4. EnMAP itself is quite a bizarre case: the wildly overambitious smallsat was initially scheduled to launch as early as 2012 but has suffered a full decade of delays as endless issues arose. Painfully, those delays mean that EnMAP – a spacecraft largely designed before 2010 – is merely the latest in a long line of similarly capable satellites. Italy, for example, began work on an almost identically capable spacecraft – PRISMA – in 2008 and launched it in 2019 for ~$140 million.
According to one estimate, EnMAP’s cost has likely ballooned from ~$100 million to more than $330 million. In other words, it’s fairly reasonable to assume that SpaceX was able to charge DLR quite a bit more than Transporter-4’s other rideshare customers. SpaceX could have positioned it as a heavily discounted dedicated launch that just so happens to carry some secondary payloads – perhaps charging ‘just’ $15-30 million. EnMAP (950 kg or 2100 lb) is slightly heavier than the maximum weight SpaceX’s one-size-fits-all pricing allows for, but a customer with a similar 830 kilogram (1830 lb) spacecraft could launch it for as little as $4.6 million on a Transporter mission.
Of Transporter-4’s 40 payloads, at least 16 are using intermediaries like Spaceflight, Exolaunch, and D-Orbit, who then deal with SpaceX for the satellite owners. Excluding EnMAP, at least six other customers likely booked directly through SpaceX. Combined, total Transporter-4 revenue before EnMAP could be as low as ~$13 million. According to a SpaceX executive speaking in 2020, the total cost of a Falcon 9 launch with a recoverable, flight-proven booster is $28 million. Given that some executives have compared Transporter missions to public transit, it’s possible that SpaceX is willing to launch some rideshare missions even knowing they will lose money, but it’s hard to imagine it would burn $10-15 million (or more) instead of just delaying a few months to add more payloads.
Even though EnMAP is thus likely picking up all of financial slack, Transporter-4 is still a good demonstration of SpaceX’s flexibility – flexibility that current or prospective providers with much smaller rockets simply can’t match. With Falcon 9, SpaceX can just throw a 1-ton, $300 million spacecraft on top of a several-dozen-satellite rideshare mission and still recover both the booster and fairing without issue – all while charging its smaller customers a more or less unbeatable $1.1 million per 200-kilogram slot and $5500 for each additional kilogram.
SpaceX will begin streaming its first Transporter-4 launch attempt around 12:10 pm EDT (16:10 UTC).
News
Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers
Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers.
Tesla appears to be preparing for the eventual removal of its Robotaxi service’s safety drivers.
This was hinted at in a recent de-compile of the Robotaxi App’s version 25.11.5, which was shared on social media platform X.
In-cabin analytics
As per Tesla software tracker @Tesla_App_iOS, the latest update to the Robotaxi app featured several improvements. These include Live Screen Sharing, as well as a feature that would allow Tesla to access video and audio inside the vehicle.
According to the software tracker, a new prompt has been added to the Robotaxi App that requests user consent for enhanced in-cabin data sharing, which comprise Cabin Camera Analytics and Sound Detection Analytics. Once accepted, Tesla would be able to retrieve video and audio data from the Robotaxi’s cabin.
Video and audio sharing
A screenshot posted by the software tracker on X showed that Cabin Camera Analytics is used to improve the intelligence of features like request support. Tesla has not explained exactly how the feature will be implemented, though this might mean that the in-cabin camera may be used to view and analyze the status of passengers when remote agents are contacted.
Sound Detection Analytics is expected to be used to improve the intelligence of features like siren recognition. This suggests that Robotaxis will always be actively listening for emergency vehicle sirens to improve how the system responds to them. Tesla, however, also maintained that data collected by Robotaxis will be anonymous. In-cabin data will not be linked to users unless they are needed for a safety event or a support request.
Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers. With Tesla able to access video and audio feeds from Robotaxis, after all, users can get assistance even if they are alone in the driverless vehicle.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
News
Tesla’s Elon Musk posts updated Robotaxi fleet ramp for Austin, TX
Musk posted his update on social media platform X.
Elon Musk says Tesla will “roughly double” its supervised Robotaxi fleet in Austin next month as riders report long wait times and limited availability across the pilot program in the Texas city. Musk posted his update on social media platform X.
The move comes as Waymo accelerates its U.S. expansion with its fully driverless freeway service, intensifying competition in autonomous mobility.
Tesla to increase Austin Robotaxi fleet size
Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin continues to operate under supervised conditions, requiring a safety monitor in the front seat even as the company seeks regulatory approval to begin testing without human oversight. The current fleet is estimated at about 30 vehicles, StockTwists noted, and Musk’s commitment to doubling that figure follows widespread rider complaints about limited access and “High Service Demand” notifications.
Influencers and early users of the Robotaxi service have observed repeated failures to secure a ride during peak times, highlighting a supply bottleneck in one of Tesla’s most visible autonomy pilots. The expansion aims to provide more consistent availability as the company scales and gathers more real-world driving data, an advantage analysts often cite as a differentiator versus rivals.
Broader rollout plans
Tesla’s Robotaxi service has so far only been rolled out to Austin and the Bay Area, though reports have indicated that the electric vehicle maker is putting in a lot of effort to expand the service to other cities across the United States. Waymo, the Robotaxi service’s biggest competitor, has ramped its service to areas like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix.
Analysts continue to highlight Tesla’s long-term autonomy potential due to its global fleet size, vertically integrated design, and immense real-world data. ARK Invest has maintained that Tesla Robotaxis could represent up to 90% of the company’s enterprise value by 2029. BTIG analysts, on the other hand, added that upcoming Full Self-Driving upgrades will enhance reasoning, particularly parking decisions, while Tesla pushes toward expansions in Austin, the Bay Area, and potentially 8 to 10 metro regions by the end of 2025.
Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
