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SpaceX will attempt Falcon 9 upper stage landings in 2018, says Shotwell
SpaceX also hopes to create an Internet constellation around Mars
In a candid and light-hearted presentation given at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell revealed a considerable amount of exciting information about the space launch company’s future prospects and near-term goals.
Fascinatingly, Shotwell confirmed that SpaceX is currently attempting to procure nuclear materials in order to conduct research and development of nuclear propulsion for spacecraft. Nuclear-powered methods of propulsion have the potential to drastically increase the efficiency of spacecraft once in orbit, with the primary benefit being faster travel times around the Solar System. Faster transit times for manned spacecraft would translate into fewer consumables needed for those journeys, increasing the amount of other supplies that could be brought in a single trip. Beyond the orbit of Mars, other destinations humans might like to visit will require non-chemical propulsion, with more traditional rocketry leading to one-way voyages measured in years.
https://twitter.com/charlottelowey/status/913145922976190464
Equally exciting, she stated that SpaceX plans to attempt the first soft landing of Falcon 9’s upper stage before the end of 2018. Second stage recovery efforts would proceed much like Falcon 9’s first stage recovery did, beginning with attempts to land softly in the ocean and later bring in a droneship to attempt legitimate recoveries of the vehicle. While SpaceX’s now highly successful program of first stage recovery has taken the first steps to appreciably lower the cost of access to orbit, as much as 30% or more of the cost of every Falcon 9 launch can be found in the second stage and its many components, all of which are currently discarded every launch. Second stage recovery and reuse is nevertheless absolutely crucial to SpaceX’s and Elon Musk’s goal of reducing launch costs by anywhere from a factor of 10 to 100.
Still, the payload fairing – a major component of the Falcon 9 – costs approximately $5 million on its own, nearly 10% of the cost of a $62 million expendable launch. SpaceX has been making concerted progress towards fairing recovery and reuse, and Musk has said that he expects SpaceX to accomplish the first successful fairing recoveries before the end of 2017. The second stage is thus the obvious next step if the goal is to create a fully-reusable Falcon 9. SpaceX, however, seem to be prioritizing a different path.
Long road to reusabity of Falcon 9 primary boost stage…When upper stage & fairing also reusable, costs will drop by a factor >100. pic.twitter.com/WyTAQ3T9EP
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 14, 2017
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Shotwell clarified that SpaceX would not attempt to reuse Falcon 9’s upper stage, even if recovery efforts succeed. This suggests that SpaceX is planning to focus the majority of its research and development staff and capital on their considerably larger “BFR (Big Falcon Rocket) planetary colonizer” vehicle, which will be unveiled for the first time later today. Hence, Shotwell’s comment lends confidence to the belief that Falcon 9 will never become fully reusable, which makes sense. The decision to focus energy on a new launch vehicle is arguably a more efficient and productive task than modifying Falcon 9 even more drastically. The development of an entirely new rocket offers SpaceX the freedom to design for complete reusability from the start, whereas Falcon 9’s path to partial reusability has been inevitably circuitous.
Finally, Shotwell briefly discussed SpaceX’s desire to create a vast constellation of Internet satellites around Earth, stating that their goal was “make scads of cash, spend it going to Mars, [and] give Mars broadband too!”. This aligns with speculation and leaked financial documents. Just yesterday, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) held an Open Commission meeting where they voted to hand off certain aspects of regulatory approval to the International Telecommunications Union, which is a relatively positive development for SpaceX’s satellite constellation.
https://twitter.com/charlottelowey/status/913146863842414593
Regardless, Musk is bound to reveal some even more thrilling details about SpaceX in his presentation at the 2017 International Astronautical Congress. Currently scheduled for 4 a.m UTC on September 29, or 9:30 p.m. PDT on September 28, and an official SpaceX.com livestream is expected to be provided for those who were unable to make the long journey to Adelaide, Australia.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
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None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
