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SpaceX will attempt Falcon 9 upper stage landings in 2018, says Shotwell
SpaceX also hopes to create an Internet constellation around Mars
In a candid and light-hearted presentation given at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell revealed a considerable amount of exciting information about the space launch company’s future prospects and near-term goals.
Fascinatingly, Shotwell confirmed that SpaceX is currently attempting to procure nuclear materials in order to conduct research and development of nuclear propulsion for spacecraft. Nuclear-powered methods of propulsion have the potential to drastically increase the efficiency of spacecraft once in orbit, with the primary benefit being faster travel times around the Solar System. Faster transit times for manned spacecraft would translate into fewer consumables needed for those journeys, increasing the amount of other supplies that could be brought in a single trip. Beyond the orbit of Mars, other destinations humans might like to visit will require non-chemical propulsion, with more traditional rocketry leading to one-way voyages measured in years.
https://twitter.com/charlottelowey/status/913145922976190464
Equally exciting, she stated that SpaceX plans to attempt the first soft landing of Falcon 9’s upper stage before the end of 2018. Second stage recovery efforts would proceed much like Falcon 9’s first stage recovery did, beginning with attempts to land softly in the ocean and later bring in a droneship to attempt legitimate recoveries of the vehicle. While SpaceX’s now highly successful program of first stage recovery has taken the first steps to appreciably lower the cost of access to orbit, as much as 30% or more of the cost of every Falcon 9 launch can be found in the second stage and its many components, all of which are currently discarded every launch. Second stage recovery and reuse is nevertheless absolutely crucial to SpaceX’s and Elon Musk’s goal of reducing launch costs by anywhere from a factor of 10 to 100.
Still, the payload fairing – a major component of the Falcon 9 – costs approximately $5 million on its own, nearly 10% of the cost of a $62 million expendable launch. SpaceX has been making concerted progress towards fairing recovery and reuse, and Musk has said that he expects SpaceX to accomplish the first successful fairing recoveries before the end of 2017. The second stage is thus the obvious next step if the goal is to create a fully-reusable Falcon 9. SpaceX, however, seem to be prioritizing a different path.
Long road to reusabity of Falcon 9 primary boost stage…When upper stage & fairing also reusable, costs will drop by a factor >100. pic.twitter.com/WyTAQ3T9EP
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 14, 2017
Shotwell clarified that SpaceX would not attempt to reuse Falcon 9’s upper stage, even if recovery efforts succeed. This suggests that SpaceX is planning to focus the majority of its research and development staff and capital on their considerably larger “BFR (Big Falcon Rocket) planetary colonizer” vehicle, which will be unveiled for the first time later today. Hence, Shotwell’s comment lends confidence to the belief that Falcon 9 will never become fully reusable, which makes sense. The decision to focus energy on a new launch vehicle is arguably a more efficient and productive task than modifying Falcon 9 even more drastically. The development of an entirely new rocket offers SpaceX the freedom to design for complete reusability from the start, whereas Falcon 9’s path to partial reusability has been inevitably circuitous.
Finally, Shotwell briefly discussed SpaceX’s desire to create a vast constellation of Internet satellites around Earth, stating that their goal was “make scads of cash, spend it going to Mars, [and] give Mars broadband too!”. This aligns with speculation and leaked financial documents. Just yesterday, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) held an Open Commission meeting where they voted to hand off certain aspects of regulatory approval to the International Telecommunications Union, which is a relatively positive development for SpaceX’s satellite constellation.
https://twitter.com/charlottelowey/status/913146863842414593
Regardless, Musk is bound to reveal some even more thrilling details about SpaceX in his presentation at the 2017 International Astronautical Congress. Currently scheduled for 4 a.m UTC on September 29, or 9:30 p.m. PDT on September 28, and an official SpaceX.com livestream is expected to be provided for those who were unable to make the long journey to Adelaide, Australia.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
