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SpaceX’s first crewed NASA launches remain on schedule for 2018
Plenty of work lies ahead of both companies, but progress abounds
Amidst a seemingly relaxed July for SpaceX, the company has been working intently with NASA to prepare for its first Commercial Crew mission in as few as seven months. NASA’s combination of strict technical requirements and partial flexibility with the famously fast-moving aerospace company have resulted in a collaborative environment that Elon Musk recently deemed beneficial to the company.
As NASA works with the company to ensure that Dragon 2 is as safe as realistically possible, SpaceX has begun several rounds of advanced testing and training. NASA astronauts are in the process of learning how to operate Dragon 2, and a near-production version of the vehicle’s control software and hardware has been integrated to allow for accurate simulations as practice. Meanwhile, Department of Defense personnel that will be tasked with recovering Dragons and crew from the ocean have begun developing those procedures with a mockup capsule.
- DoD personnel began initial recovery procedure development in July. (SpaceX)
- NASA astronauts utilizing the Dragon 2 simulator as they practice for the first crewed launch in June 2018. (SpaceX)
- A look inside Crew Dragon’s bare crew compartment. (SpaceX)
At SpaceX’s Hawthorne manufacturing facilities, four separate Crew Dragons are in different states of assembly. While one of those vehicles is intended solely for qualification testing, the three remaining Dragons will respectively launch into low Earth orbit throughout the course of 2018, assuming schedules remain firm. Structural testing and verification of the qualification Dragon was completed as of July 24th, and the first flightworthy Dragon has undergone testing of its pressure vessel to ensure that there are no leaks.
Looking forward to launching @NASA astronauts to the International Space Station next year!https://t.co/qoLtTEP4L8
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 3, 2017
Deemed Demo-1 in relation to the first flight of Dragon being Demonstration Flight 1, SpaceX workers are almost ready to integrate the service section and pressure vessel compartments. The pressure vessel is better known as the crew compartment, while the service section is where all the necessary flight and life support systems are contained. Dragon’s “claw” – used to grab hold of the ISS upon docking – and engines have also passed qualification tests.

Different parts of the Demo-1 Dragon in Hawthorne. The crew compartment or pressure vessel can be seen on the left, while the heat shield is front and center. A second and possibly third Crew Dragon pressure vessel can be seen in the background. (SpaceX)
Possibly the most exciting of all, SpaceX has conducted the first pressurized tests of its in-house space suits with NASA crew members. While non-insiders have yet to catch a glimpse of the company’s suits, those lucky enough to have stolen a glance have indicated that they look awesome. As the company progresses to actual vacuum testing of the suits, fans can likely look forward to a reveal. While we don’t yet have a view of SpaceX suits, the July 24th Commercial Crew update did provide the first public photos of SpaceX’s crew access arm, set to be installed at the LC-39A launch pad later this year.
- NASA astronauts check out SpaceX’s recently-completed crew access arm. (SpaceX)
- Whether or not you can parse NASA’s infamous acronym and jargon-heavy language, it’s clear that SpaceX has a considerable amount of work ahead to make their February 2018 deadline. (NASA)
- For those with extreme willpower, a close study of this graphic provides a good idea of where both SpaceX and Boeing are as they head to first CCP launches. (NASA)
Aside from an array of milestones ahead for the company, the only major tasks yet to be finished are design finalization for Crew Dragon’s seat mechanisms and control displays. SpaceX’s Demonstration 1 and 2 launch dates of February and June 2018 respectively remain steady as of this late-July update. Delays are always possible and even likely, but chances are good that SpaceX will be ready to conduct the first launch of crew to the ISS before the end of next year.
Elon Musk
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.





