Investor's Corner
Key takeaways from Tesla’s Q3 report and Q&A with Musk
Tesla released its third quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, surprising Wall Street after posting nearly $22 million in profit in the quarter. This is in sharp contrast to previous analyst expectations polled by FactSet which expected Tesla to report a GAAP loss of 53 cents a share in the third quarter, and an adjusted loss per share of 22 cents, narrower than the adjusted loss of 58 cents a share in the year-ago period.
Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from buy-side and sell-side analysts, fund managers, hedge funds and academics, expected Tesla to report an adjusted loss per shares of 4 cents. Estimates on E-Trade were between a loss of 4 and 7 cents. Noted Tesla Analyst Ben Kallo of Baird, expected non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.72.
All in all, given all these numbers, Wall Street was basically expecting a breakeven quarter.
Revenue
Total reported Q3 GAAP revenue was $2.30 billion, up 145% from Q3 2015. Tesla matched the higher end of the expectations. Another good news for the stock.
MarketWatch, in a live blog, called it a “Tesla earnings shocker – Actual profit”. Similarly, Bloomberg was surprised and posted the headline “Tesla Posts Rare Quarterly Profit as Musk Readies for SolarCity. The Wall Street Journal landed the news on its front page with the headline “Tesla Shares Jump after Posting Best Quarterly Sales Ever.”
I believe investors and analyst expectations were so low, that the clearly huge profit numbers were a “shock” to the market. This is Tesla first profitable quarter since the third quarter of 2014, a full 2 years ago, when Tesla eked out a minuscule profit of 2 cents a share. Tesla had reported losses ever since.
Stock Reaction (after hours)
The stock ended the day regular session at $202.24, down 10c for the day. The stock is down heavily from the $267 in early April, around the time Tesla started taking reservations for the Model 3.
The initial reaction of traders was very positive, as right after the quarterly results were published, Tesla shares rose as high as $215, about 7% in after-hours trading, with very high volume.

Source: optionhouse.com
The conference call did not change much as the after-hour session closed at $212, or up about 5% so we would expect a higher opening on Thursday.
Analysts polled by TipRanks have an average rating of hold on the stock, with an average stock price target of $199.13, about even from current levels at the close. These levels may well be adjusted tomorrow on the upside 5-7%, given the huge beat on expectations.

Source: TipRanks
Conference Call Q&A Top Quotes
Besides the financial report, investors wanted to hear about future production, which they are counting on to justify the still fairly high Tesla share price.
In the Tesla Third Quarter 2016 Update letter, Tesla noted that they “achieved record production levels in Q3, raising to 25,185 vehicles for an increase of 37% from Q2, and an increase of 92% from Q3 last year.” Also, Tesla “maintained guidance of 50,000 new vehicle deliveries for the second half of 2016 […] despite the challenges of winter weather and the holiday season.”
Best Quarter Ever
At the start of the conference call Elon Musk called the “quarter the best ever,” with fourth quarter expected to be great as well, with Q4 to be profitable even including non cash stock based expenses.
Musk called it “One of the best moments in Tesla history.” Elon also addressed rumors of widespread discounting as reason for profit: called the, “absolutely false,” and pointed out that “vehicle profitability increased without ZEV credits.”
Model 3
Elon reiterates volume production for Model 3 in second half of next year. The terms that the company are getting for suppliers is much better. Model 3 production and logistics are way faster, says Musk. He also forecasts an increase in gross margin, even after big beat on that metric in the quarter just reported. As a result, Elon does say he doesn’t expect to raise more capital in Q1 2017, though he won’t rule it out.
Musk dodged a question about Model 3 deposits: “That’s not something we comment on and not something that deserves merit,” he says.
Elon listed his 3 top priorities: Model 3 production schedule, advancing autopilot software, and ramp up of 100 kWh production line. After the call, Musk will be at the 100 kWh production line as “demand is high,” he says.
SolarCity
The SolarCity deal about “cash neutral” for Tesla, Musk says. If this is indeed found to be true, it may help with the approval of the deal coming up soon for vote by the shareholders.
“It’s important to have ‘tight control’ of solar panels production in order to have a ‘beautiful’ product. Confident it would have the best product at the best price, and one that would look better as well,” Musk says.
The solar roof product that will be offered by combined Tesla-SolarCity will “look better than a normal roof” and will be aimed at new houses being built and homes where the roof needs to be replaced anyway. Musk said that “People will be surprised by the product to be unveiled on Friday. It exceeded my expectation,” he says.
Full Autonomy
Elon said that “radar is moving from supplemental to primary sensor. Vision is still the main thing, but radar can be primary so you can take action based on radar, similarly as you can take action based on vision.” Elon also called out MobilEye for “issuing bullshit” on radar vs. vision argument in autonomous driving.
According to Musk, “Teslas on Autopilot are logging 1.5 million miles per day through all kinds of road conditions and weather all across the world.”
All in all no real surprises out of the conference call, and the good thing is that the stock held steady during the call. Definitely a good day for Tesla.
Elon Musk
FAA kicks off review of SpaceX’s bid to fly Starship nearly every day
FAA is reviewing SpaceX’s plan for 456 Starship launches a year, up from 25 today.
The FAA said Tuesday that it will prepare an environmental impact statement on SpaceX’s proposal to run as many as 456 Starship launches and 912 landings a year from Starbase, Texas. SpaceX is currently authorized for 25 launches and 50 landings annually, which makes the request roughly 18 times the existing ceiling. The notice of intent is set to publish in the Federal Register on Wednesday.
The plan comes in two phases. Phase 1 would allow up to 100 launches and 200 landings a year, on any day and at any hour. Phase 2, which the FAA says could arrive within several years, would raise the limit to the full 456 launches, still at any hour but only on weekdays. The agency noted that 912 landings is the upper limit for the Texas facility no matter where a given mission begins, and that Starship and Super Heavy could come down at the launch site or in the Gulf and open ocean.
A draft statement will be released for public comment at a later date, and the FAA has not said when. According to the Federal Registar, written comments are due November 30 on regulations.gov under docket FAA-2026-12808, with in person scoping meetings on November 17 in Brownsville and November 19 in Port Isabel, plus a virtual session on November 18. The review will weigh air quality, wildlife, coastal resources, water, noise, and aviation, and the FAA said any increase beyond this proposal would need its own separate review.
The numbers look large next to what Starbase has actually done. Starship has flown three times from Texas this year, including Flight 14 on September 28, the first orbital flight, which deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Bloomberg reported that Starbase has never launched more than five times in a calendar year. The current cap of 25 comes from an FAA approval in May 2025. In February, the agency also approved up to 44 Starship launches a year from Launch Complex 39A in Florida, so Phase 1 in Texas alone would more than double that allowance.
Musk has said Starship could eventually fly more than once per hour within less than a decade, per Bloomberg. The nearer term target is Flight 15. Musk said on October 10 that it is hopefully four to six weeks away and will try to catch the ship with the tower, as Teslarati covered. That flight still runs under the existing 25 launch limit, and so would every Starbase launch for as long as the new review takes.
As of mid morning Pacific time on Tuesday, SpaceX had not posted about the filing on its own account.
Investor's Corner
Elon Musk drops a Thanksgiving hint about Starship’s biggest test yet
Elon Musk says Starship Flight 15 will try to catch the ship itself, a first.
Elon Musk says SpaceX’s next Starship flight will try something nobody has done before, by catching the ship itself. Speaking to roughly 2,000 people at the X Takeover event at Giga Texas on Saturday, Musk said Flight 15 is about four to six weeks away and “probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving, is my guess.”
That is a slip from earlier reporting, which had pointed to a launch as early as October 19. Musk explained why the date keeps moving. “We’re making a bunch of improvements to the rocket between every flight,” he said, adding that there are often hundreds, sometimes thousands, of small changes. This time the list is short, “but some of them take a fair bit of work and we’ve got to go inside the tank to make some of these changes.”
“We’re going to try to catch the ship, which is a super big deal,” Musk said. “If we do so, that’ll be the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket.” SpaceX has already caught the Super Heavy booster with the tower’s mechanical arms, and has talked about catching the ship since late 2025, but the upper stage has never been caught.
Musk also laid out what comes after. “The next big milestone would be to refly both the booster and the ship,” he said, describing a Flight 16 where “all parts of an orbital rocket are reflown.”
The reason SpaceX wants this comes down to cost and cadence. Every Starship ship so far has ended its flight in the ocean, and SpaceX expects most of those water landings to end in fireballs. A ship that returns to Starbase intact can be inspected and flown again. SpaceX’s IPO filing, says Starship V3 is designed to deliver 100 metric tons to orbit in a fully reusable configuration, that SpaceX aims to cut the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more versus the historical average, and that tower catches should allow “multiple launches per day.”
The payoff goes beyond cheaper launches. The next generation Starlink V3 satellites are too large for Falcon 9 and can only fly on Starship, which can carry up to 60 per flight. Flight 14 on September 28 deployed the first 26 of them after Starship reached orbit despite an early engine shutdown, as Teslarati reported. Musk blamed engine computer software, and said the heat shield “was extremely robust,” which he claimed in August had solved Starship’s biggest challenge.
NASA’s Moon plans depend on the same capability. NASA’s inspector general has described a lander mission that needs a propellant depot in low Earth orbit and more than 10 tanker flights, with SpaceX targeting one tanker launch every six days. That schedule only works if ships and boosters come back fast and fly again. Also, ship to ship propellant transfer has not been attempted yet.
One interesting hurdle yet to be explored is bringing the ship back to the launch site, with reentry over land, which will undoubtedly come with a lot of aviation safety reviews.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX reveals how its 1 Million AI satellite network will work and prevent space collisions
SpaceX reveals plans for one million Starmind AI satellites and calls out operators hiding maneuvers.
SpaceX has put the largest satellite count it has ever published into writing, and it says that plan only works if every other operator in orbit starts sharing what it knows.
In a new Space Safety page highlighted Tuesday morning by Sawyer Merritt on X, SpaceX said it “plans to operate up to 100,000 Starlink satellites and up to 1 million Starmind AI satellites to meet the growing demand for broadband and supercompute.” Starlink has a little over 11,000 satellites in orbit today, so the target alone implies roughly a ninefold expansion of the broadband network.
Starmind is SpaceX’s orbital AI compute constellation. Elon Musk confirmed the Starmind name in June after an xAI trademark filing surfaced, and in August SpaceX said it was working with Nvidia on the compute payload. The FCC accepted the filing for up to one million satellites back in February.
FCC accepts SpaceX filing for 1 million orbital data center plan
SpaceX also released a new render of what a full Starmind constellation could look like. Alongside it, SpaceX VP Michael Nicolls explained why the satellites will not operate on their own. “We need to operate clusters of satellites in tight formation to get enough coherent compute to run AI models efficiently,” Nicolls said. “A cluster will be 10-ish satellites connected with 10 terabits or so of bandwidth between them, and interconnected to the broader constellation.”
That is the most specific detail SpaceX has given on how Starmind will be built. Instead of a million independent servers, the network would work as tightly packed groups of about 10 satellites acting as one compute unit, with Starlink’s laser links carrying results back to Earth.
There is a bright and exciting future for humanity ahead – and space is fundamental to that future.
To achieve this, space safety must be done right. We encourage every operator to not only share ephemeris data proactively the same way Starlink already does, but to also adopt the high standards of space safety that SpaceX and Starlink use every day → https://t.co/QizAkQZvEm
— Starlink (@Starlink) October 6, 2026
Packing satellites that close together, at that scale, makes collision avoidance the central problem, and most of the Space Safety page is aimed at other operators. SpaceX said Starlink encountered collision risks with about 650 unique maneuvering third party satellites in 2026, and only about half of them shared data. Over six months, Starlink recorded roughly 164,000 more collision risks where the closest approach came within four hours of an unannounced maneuver.
Some operators keep maneuver plans private over proprietary concerns, while others cannot get government permission to share them. SpaceX called those policies “counterproductive,” saying they “largely only serve to create preventable collision risk between satellites.” Starlink is also offering a free ephemeris sharing and screening platform that returns risk results within a minute, backed by its Stargaze network of 30,000 optical sensors.
The push comes as the Starmind application draws opposition from astronomers and environmental groups. In a September filing with the FCC, SpaceX said each Starmind satellite could weigh up to 4,000 kg, nearly seven times the mass of a Starlink V2 Mini. Musk has brushed off crowding concerns before, telling viewers in June that “space is enormous” and that SpaceX already knows how to run very large constellations safely.
SpaceX’s Starmind page says its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, is designed to produce AI satellites at scale, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027.