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Tesla is about to make producing 1 million EVs per year unremarkable

(Credit: Tesla Owners Mexico/Twitter)

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It’s a bit amazing that just over two years ago, Tesla was struggling to hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week at the Fremont Factory. The target, which proved elusive enough to warrant extreme attention from TSLA short-sellers, was achieved at the end of Q2 2018, six months behind the company’s initial schedule. Over the course of 2018, Tesla delivered a whopping 245,240 cars, a new record for the company.

Since then, Tesla has steadily ramped its vehicle production capabilities, and today, the company is aiming to deliver around half a million electric cars by the end of the year. That’s despite a pandemic that has shaken the world, which has resulted in shutdowns in Tesla’s two production facilities, the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. Giga Shanghai is only in its first year of operations too and is not yet fully ramped.

But Tesla, if any, is a beast of optimism and possibility. It’s the one carmaker that is still growing strong during a pandemic, and its vehicles, particularly the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, are seeing strong demand from consumers. With this in mind, Tesla has noted that it intends to ramp its vehicle production capabilities to the millions within the next years. It would not be surprising at all if the company announces that it would be producing and delivering 1 million cars by next year.

(Credit: The Kilowatts/Twitter)

Such an idea might sound implausible now, but so was the idea of pursuing a delivery goal of 500,000 vehicles in a year that’s weighed down by a pandemic.

What is rather noteworthy is that over the years, Tesla has steadily established itself as a capable automaker that has what it takes to deliver on its goals. The company may not always be on time and it may hit snags with the build quality of its first-production vehicles, but it does stay true to its word. The same is true for Elon Musk. FSD may have been delayed for some time, for example, but the limited beta that’s testing today is very real, and its potentials are vast.

With these milestones comes a normalcy of sorts for Tesla. While the company made headlines when it first broke the 5,000 Model 3 per week barrier, for example, such things are simply unremarkable today. And that’s really where Tesla’s magic lies. The company simply has the capability to make something remarkable seem normal. This was true with regards to the public’s perception of the power and capabilities of electric cars against their gas-powered rivals. This will likely be true when it comes to vehicle production capabilities as well.

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(Credit: Wu Wa/YouTube)

This is already starting for the electric car maker. Just recently, data from the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA) revealed that Tesla China was able to produce 22,292 Model 3 in Gigafactory Shanghai in the month of October. This translates to a run-rate of 275,148 vehicles per year. Interestingly enough, leaks from industry insiders have suggested that Tesla China is aiming to produce 550,000 cars in 2021, with 300,000 of those being the Model 3.

Considering Tesla China’s October production figures, it would appear that the company is already well within striking distance of its 2021 Model 3 production goal. It wouldn’t be surprising if Tesla hits a run-rate of 300,000 China-made Model 3s by the end of the year, and it would be quite silly to assume that the company would stop optimizing Gigafactory Shanghai at that level.

If Gigafactory Shanghai can build 550,000 cars in 2021, Tesla would have a pretty solid chance of producing 1 million vehicles in one year. This would no doubt be a milestone for the company. But if Tesla’s previous years are any indication, it would only take a few years before vehicle production rates in the level of millions will be considered expected, or even better, unremarkable. Once that happens, then one could probably declare that the electric car age is truly beginning.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla’s Omead Afshar, known as Elon Musk’s right-hand man, leaves company: reports

Tesla’s Head of North American sales and European ops, Omead Afshar, has reportedly left the company. He was widely-known as Elon Musk’s right-hand man.

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Credit: Elon Musk | X

Tesla’s Omead Afshar, who is widely known as CEO Elon Musk’s right-hand man, has reportedly left the company.

Several outlets are reporting that Afshar either left voluntarily or was potentially terminated on Thursday. His LinkedIn profile has not been updated to reflect this, and still states he presently works at Tesla in the “Office of the CEO.”

Afshar was promoted to Head of North American sales and European operations late last year. We reported on his promotion in October, as he was previously a Project Manager in the Office of the CEO before Musk and co. stepped up his responsibilities.

According to the initial report on Afshar’s departure from Bloomberg, the news has been circulating throughout the company in recent days. His name no longer appears in the company’s internal directory.

It is interesting to think about what could have caused this. Tesla has felt some pressure in Europe with struggling sales figures in some markets. It is the second-best-selling EV maker in the region, with Volkswagen performing slightly better for the year, according to EU-EVs.

Tesla’s Model Y is the best-selling EV in the region.

While the company has not directly confirmed the news, it appears to be true based on the reports.

Tesla is usually relatively quick to dispel any headlines that go out from mainstream media that are not factual. This has yet to be responded to by any executive, including Musk.

Afshar has been with Tesla for seven years and ten months, first joining in September 2017 as a Project Manager in the Office of the CEO.

He then became a Project Director, before his job title was updated to a Cowboy hat emoji in July 2020, around the time Tesla started moving some things to Texas.

Forbes is reporting that Afshar was terminated and did not leave voluntarily. This has yet to be confirmed.

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xAI Colossus pollution concerns in Memphis continue

NAACP & SELC push back against xAI Colossus supercomputer. City tests say air is safe — but activists aren’t convinced.

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(Credit: xAI)

Politicians in Memphis continue to debate about the pollution concerns arising from the xAI Colossus supercomputer.

The NAACP and the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) have already expressed interest in filing a lawsuit against xAI over concerns related to air pollution stemming from its gas-powered turbines. Environmental groups have now raised concerns about water pollutants.

On Tuesday, Memphis released third-party air quality test results from June 13 and 16. The tests were conducted in downtown Memphis, Whitehaven, and Boxtown, two miles from xAI’s site. The city claimed levels of 10 pollutants tested were safe.

However, SELC–which is representing the NAACP in a potential lawsuit against xAI–criticized the omission of a key pollutant called ozone from the air quality tests. SELC also noted that monitors were placed against buildings, contrary to EPA guidance, stating air sensors should be “at least six feet above ground level, rooftop, or other objects and away from obstructions, vegetation, or emissions sources that would interfere with the measurement.”

Local opposition intensified, with State Representative Justin J. Pearson asserting: “I stand firm that nothing matters if you cannot breathe clean air, drink clean water, and plant in clean soil.”

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On Wednesday, concerns shifted to the Memphis aquifer, as the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation held a virtual meeting on xAI’s wastewater facility.

Activist Pamela Moses criticized xAI. “They are not coming here to uplift or invest in our community. They are here to exploit it. This a distressed and a historically neglected area, and instead of bringing opportunity, Colossal is bringing pollution…secrecy and broken promises,” she said.

xAI’s $80 million Grey Water facility aims to mitigate water concerns. The Colossus Water Recycle Facility, a collaboration between the Tennessee Valley Authority and Nucor Steel, aims to alleviate the strain on the aquifer.

“This project is a game changer in terms of it saving about 4.7 billion gallons of water projected, and about 4.7 billion gallons will remain in the aquifer every year,” said Bobby White of the Greater Memphis Chamber.

As xAI’s Memphis supercomputer continues to be the center of debates, the tension between economic benefits and environmental justice remains unresolved. With ongoing scrutiny and potential legal action, xAI’s efforts to address pollution and water concerns will shape its role in Memphis’ future.

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Tesla Robotaxi’s biggest challenge seems to be this one thing

That big bright thing in the sky might be Tesla’s biggest challenge in terms of Robotaxi.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi launched just a few days ago to a limited number of riders in Austin, Texas, but its biggest challenge seems to be how the automaker will figure out one thing: the Sun.

Among the company’s unique strategies, its emphasis on using cameras for self-driving is perhaps the most interesting. No other company has adopted the same strategy, as others have relied on cameras with either sensors or LiDAR rigs to accomplish their self-driving deployments.

Tesla, on the other hand, has called LiDAR unnecessary. CEO Elon Musk once called it “a fool’s errand,” stating it was not needed to build an effective self-driving fleet of vehicles.

Musk compared cameras to eyes. Humans don’t need sensors or LiDAR to operate vehicles on the road, so why should cars? This brought up some questions, especially regarding sun glare. Musk said that Tesla would use direct photon counting to see directly into brigt sunlight or even in the darkest conditions at night.

His quote during a recent earnings call was:

“Actually, it does not blind the camera. We use an approach which is direct photon count. When you see a processed image, so the image that goes from the sort of photon counter — the silicon photon counter — that then goes through a digital signal processor or image signal processor, that’s normally what happens. And then the image that you see looks all washed out, because if you point the camera at the sun, the post-processing of the photon counting washes things out.”
So far, this strategy has yielded mixed results. We have seen examples of both:

The Good

We’ve had a handful of people state that they have had no issue using the Robotaxi when it is driving into direct sunlight.

There are plenty of examples:

The Bad

The Verdict

This is obviously a weird case, and it seems that this could be one of the challenges Tesla will face with the deployment of Robotaxi.

While it will get figured out, this is something that could ultimately push back Tesla’s goal of having no safety monitor in the vehicles. However, the instance will be learned and used to improve in the future through its Neural Nets.

The first intervention was captured yesterday, requiring the Tesla safety monitor to stop the vehicle manually on the car’s touchscreen.

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