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Tesla is about to make producing 1 million EVs per year unremarkable
It’s a bit amazing that just over two years ago, Tesla was struggling to hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week at the Fremont Factory. The target, which proved elusive enough to warrant extreme attention from TSLA short-sellers, was achieved at the end of Q2 2018, six months behind the company’s initial schedule. Over the course of 2018, Tesla delivered a whopping 245,240 cars, a new record for the company.
Since then, Tesla has steadily ramped its vehicle production capabilities, and today, the company is aiming to deliver around half a million electric cars by the end of the year. That’s despite a pandemic that has shaken the world, which has resulted in shutdowns in Tesla’s two production facilities, the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. Giga Shanghai is only in its first year of operations too and is not yet fully ramped.
But Tesla, if any, is a beast of optimism and possibility. It’s the one carmaker that is still growing strong during a pandemic, and its vehicles, particularly the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, are seeing strong demand from consumers. With this in mind, Tesla has noted that it intends to ramp its vehicle production capabilities to the millions within the next years. It would not be surprising at all if the company announces that it would be producing and delivering 1 million cars by next year.
Such an idea might sound implausible now, but so was the idea of pursuing a delivery goal of 500,000 vehicles in a year that’s weighed down by a pandemic.
What is rather noteworthy is that over the years, Tesla has steadily established itself as a capable automaker that has what it takes to deliver on its goals. The company may not always be on time and it may hit snags with the build quality of its first-production vehicles, but it does stay true to its word. The same is true for Elon Musk. FSD may have been delayed for some time, for example, but the limited beta that’s testing today is very real, and its potentials are vast.
With these milestones comes a normalcy of sorts for Tesla. While the company made headlines when it first broke the 5,000 Model 3 per week barrier, for example, such things are simply unremarkable today. And that’s really where Tesla’s magic lies. The company simply has the capability to make something remarkable seem normal. This was true with regards to the public’s perception of the power and capabilities of electric cars against their gas-powered rivals. This will likely be true when it comes to vehicle production capabilities as well.
This is already starting for the electric car maker. Just recently, data from the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA) revealed that Tesla China was able to produce 22,292 Model 3 in Gigafactory Shanghai in the month of October. This translates to a run-rate of 275,148 vehicles per year. Interestingly enough, leaks from industry insiders have suggested that Tesla China is aiming to produce 550,000 cars in 2021, with 300,000 of those being the Model 3.
Considering Tesla China’s October production figures, it would appear that the company is already well within striking distance of its 2021 Model 3 production goal. It wouldn’t be surprising if Tesla hits a run-rate of 300,000 China-made Model 3s by the end of the year, and it would be quite silly to assume that the company would stop optimizing Gigafactory Shanghai at that level.
If Gigafactory Shanghai can build 550,000 cars in 2021, Tesla would have a pretty solid chance of producing 1 million vehicles in one year. This would no doubt be a milestone for the company. But if Tesla’s previous years are any indication, it would only take a few years before vehicle production rates in the level of millions will be considered expected, or even better, unremarkable. Once that happens, then one could probably declare that the electric car age is truly beginning.
Tesla Cybercab is set to launch in Austin, Texas, on September 3, as the company has officially started sending out invitations to a dedicated event it will hold in the city where its headquarters is located.
The Cybercab is Tesla’s dedicated ride-sharing vehicle: it features just two seats and has no steering wheel or pedals. It is aimed at fully autonomous passenger transport, and will operate in the Robotaxi fleet alongside the Tesla Model Y, which has been performing driverless rides for real-world passengers for more than a year.
Thank you so much @Tesla for inviting us to the Cybercab launch in Austin! 🤠 pic.twitter.com/F1rAR8zd5O
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 22, 2026
The launch of the Cybercab marks the next chapter in Tesla’s autonomy story. The company has been developing autonomous transport for years with its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) platform, which is available in any vehicle the company has built with the proper hardware and software capabilities.
Its capabilities vary by hardware and software version, but Tesla says its latest hardware version, known as AI4, can deliver full autonomy. However, future vehicles will operate with even more robust hardware packages, as Tesla will develop AI4.5 and AI5 for even more capability in its vehicles.
Following a report from The Information that surfaced earlier this week, the writing was on the wall that Tesla was set to launch Cybercab in the near term. The report stated Tesla could launch Cybercab as soon as the end of August. Tesla came close and has booked it for September 3.
The big thing with this event being scheduled is not necessarily that Tesla is launching a new vehicle, but instead that it is launching a vehicle that has no steering wheel or pedals and will operate exclusively on a self-driving program that is evidently nearing full autonomy. If the event allows vehicles to take passengers on public roads and drop them off wherever they please within the City of Austin, it will be a drastic advancement in the company’s self-driving story.
People have ridden in Cybercab previously: Tesla had the “We, Robot” event in October 2024, which allowed people to experience fully autonomous rides in a closed circuit at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank.
🚨 Ride in a Tesla Cybercab with us
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) May 11, 2025
Additionally, Tesla launched employee rides in Cybercab in July.
It’s a drastic step forward for Tesla, whose CEO, Elon Musk, has promised for years that the company would release a fully autonomous vehicle and platform capable of allowing drivers to relinquish any responsibility behind the wheel.
Elon Musk put a number on where he thinks SpaceX’s Starship program is headed by 2030, replying on X a day after President Trump signed a memo pushing the country toward 1,000 space launches and reentries a year.
The exchange started when Aaron Burnett, co-founder of propulsion startup Mach 33, posted that “1,000 launches/reentries is the goal,” quoting White House science adviser Michael Kratsios on the newly signed National Space Transportation Policy. Burnett noted that the FAA’s own bull-case forecast reached only 385 annual launches by 2030, while his firm’s conservative model already put SpaceX alone near 940. Musk responded, “We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized. Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!”
We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.
Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 21, 2026
That figure is specific to Starship, the rocket SpaceX is still developing for orbital and lunar missions, not the Falcon 9 fleet that carries most of the company’s current launch volume. Starship has flown twice this year, a slower pace than the four and five flights SpaceX managed in 2024 and 2025. Getting from two flights a year to 30 a day is the scale of jump the new federal policy is meant to clear regulatory room for.
Trump’s memo, signed Thursday, directs agencies to identify new launch and reentry sites on federal land, including a new reentry site within 90 days, and to speed up the permitting and environmental reviews that have long slowed cadence growth. It also sets a goal of returning American astronauts to the moon by 2028 and placing initial lunar base elements by 2030, tying the launch buildout directly to NASA’s Artemis program.
SpaceX has already been pushing the FAA toward higher numbers on its own. The agency approved up to 44 annual Starship launches from Kennedy Space Center in February, on top of a 2024 review that raised the cap at Starbase in Texas to 25 a year. Those approvals cover a fraction of the 10,000 annual flights Musk is now describing, which shows how far current permitting still sits from the administration’s stated target.
The near-term test of all this is more modest. SpaceX cleared a full-duration, six-engine static fire on its next Starship vehicle this week, the last major hardware checkpoint before Flight 14, which is targeting no earlier than August 28 and is expected to attempt the vehicle’s first full orbital mission. Musk said last week that a tower catch of the upper stage is still probably months away, a reminder that the immediate roadmap remains far more incremental than the daily launch numbers he just posted.
Tesla will resolve its massive recall of nearly three million vehicles in China with stickers and a software update.
On Friday, Chinese regulators filed recall plans against Tesla, Xiaomi, Leapmotor, Xpeng, Chery, Geely, Dongfeng, Arcfox, and FAW to resolve what is essentially a carbon-copy issue throughout each of the companies’ vehicle models: emergency door release latches are simply not visible enough.
Tesla door handle saga gets its latest chapter and a big change is coming
The companies will be required to add things that will make these latches, which will open the door in the event of an emergency, more visible. Of the 7 million vehicles impacted, Tesla accounts for 2,975,910 units. More than 1.9 million of those are Model Y vehicles, with the rest, just over 970,000, being Model 3s.
To resolve the issue, Tesla is going to add warning labels to the emergency latches free of charge, and then utilize an Over-the-Air update to add a post-crash window-lowering strategy, according to CNEVpost.
This massive effort to fix the all-electric Model Y and Model 3’s emergency latch system comes just months after several probes across various markets identified the trouble some had identifying this latch. Those who had gotten involved in car accidents that stripped the vehicle of its power were not aware that every Tesla has emergency door latches.
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) said that severe crashes that disable a vehicle’s low-voltage system could not only hinder occupants from getting out, but also make it more difficult for emergency response workers to gain entry.
SAMR is starting to tighten the regulations it has on door handles on vehicles. A new mandatory national standard will take effect for all models starting January 1, 2027, and will require all doors to be equipped with mechanical release mechanisms. This will effectively end purely electronic door handles. Models already on sale with type approval have been granted a two-year transition period, which will enable things to change until January 2029.
Tesla will launch Cybercab on September 3
SpaceX and a new Trump order that could rewrite the next decade of launches
