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Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 can be equated to the Manhattan Project: expert

Credit: MKBHD/YouTube

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3 years ago

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For the longest time, Tesla has played the role of a disruptor, a force in the auto industry that pushes other companies to change and acknowledge the legitimacy of battery electric vehicles. But with the company’s 20 million EV goal for 2030, Tesla is trying to go far beyond disruption — it’s trying to fundamentally remake the global auto industry and the battery sector at the same time. 

If successful, Tesla could become the world’s largest company. Billionaire investor and longtime Tesla bull Ron Baron mentioned this recently when he noted that the only company that could probably follow the EV maker is Elon Musk’s private space firm, SpaceX. Selling 20 million vehicles in 2030 would also make Tesla an automaker that matches Toyota and Volkswagen’s sales today combined, holding about 20% of the global vehicle market. 

Needless to say, Tesla’s goals are extremely ambitious. For the company to achieve this, Tesla should see a 14-fold increase over the estimated 1.4 million or so vehicles that it is hoping to sell this year. It will also cost hundreds of billions of dollars, as per a Reuters analysis of Tesla’s financial disclosures and forecasts on the electric vehicle sector as a whole. 

Michael Tracy of The Agile Group, a manufacturing expert, noted that Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 is so ambitious, it could be equated to the Manhattan Project, the United States’ massive effort in the Second World War that paved the way to the creation of nuclear weapons. “I’d equate this with the Manhattan Project in World War Two,” Tracy said. 

Tesla has been growing fast, but it will have to grow at an unprecedented rate in the coming years if it wishes to hit its 2030 target. Tesla would have to construct about seven or eight more Gigafactories every 12 months or so in the coming years. It would also need to secure about 30 times as much battery capacity to supply its operations. Reuters estimated that it would cost an estimated $400 billion over the next eight years to build Tesla’s manufacturing footprint across the globe and another $200 billion to build or purchase batteries.

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Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which tracks the worldwide EV battery segment, noted that Tesla would likely have to secure 2.0 million tons of lithium, 1.3 million tons of nickel, 0.2 million tons of cobalt, and 3.5 million tons of graphite to support its 20 million EV goal in 2030. This is about four times as much lithium and nickel, about twice as much cobalt, and seven times as much graphite as the entire electric vehicle segment is looking to consume this year. 

Tesla has been busy pursuing its ambitious 2030 goal. Former Tesla executives interviewed by the publication noted that Tesla had started signing offtake agreements with miners and refiners over a decade ago. The former Tesla executives reportedly noted that the company currently has deals with over 20 materials suppliers across the globe. 

While experts today have stated that the raw material capacity needed to support Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 does not exist for now, the electric vehicle maker has a reputation for having great foresight. It may seem inconceivable now, but Tesla was considered insane in the past when it decided to build Gigafactory Nevada to prepare for the Model 3’s ramp. Back then, experts also questioned whether such a massive investment was warranted because the demand for EVs was still uncertain. But as history would show, Tesla was eventually proven right. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state

This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.

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1 hour ago

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September 11, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has landed a regulatory green light to test its Robotaxi platform in a new state, less than three months after the ride-hailing service launched in Texas.

Tesla first launched its driverless Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, back on June 22. Initially offering rides to a small group of people, Tesla kept things limited, but this was not to be the mentality for very long.

It continued to expand the rider population, the service area, and the vehicle fleet in Austin.

The company also launched rides in the Bay Area, but it does use a person in the driver’s seat to maintain safety. In Austin, the “Safety Monitor” is present in the passenger’s seat during local rides, and in the driver’s seat for routes that involve highway driving.

Tesla is currently testing the Robotaxi platform in other states. We reported that it was testing in Tempe, Arizona, as validation vehicles are traveling around the city in preparation for Robotaxi.

Tesla looks to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market

Tesla is also hoping to launch in Florida and New York, as job postings have shown the company’s intention to operate there.

However, it appears it will launch in Nevada before those states, as the company submitted its application to obtain a Testing Registry certification on September 3. It was processed by the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles Office of Business Licensing on September 10.

It will then need to self-certify for operations, essentially meaning they will need to comply with various state requirements.

This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.

CEO Elon Musk has stated that he believes Robotaxi will be available to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year. Geographically, Tesla will need to make incredible strides over the final four months of the year to achieve this.

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Tesla is improving this critical feature in older vehicles

Published

3 hours ago

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September 11, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is set to improve a critical feature that has not been present in older vehicles with a new update.

Tesla vehicles feature a comprehensive suite of driver assistance features, some of which aid in driving itself, while others support the vehicle’s surroundings.

One of those features is that of Driver Visualization, and with the rollout of a new update, owners of Intel-based Tesla vehicles are receiving an upgrade that will come with a simple software update.

Tesla plans to use Unreal Engine for driver visualization with crazy upgrade

The update will provide new visualizations while Intel-based vehicles are in reverse, a feature that was not previously available, but will be with Software Update 2025.32.2.

The improvement was spotted by Not a Tesla App via TheBeatYT_evil:

Previously, vehicles Tesla built were equipped with Intel-based processors, but newer cars feature the AMD chip, which is capable of rendering these visualizations as they happen. They were capable of visualizations when driving forward, but not in reverse, which is what this change resolves.

It is a good sign for those with Intel-based vehicles, as Tesla seems to be paying attention to what those cars are not capable of and improving them.

This was an undocumented improvement associated with this particular update, so you will not find any mention of it in the release notes that Tesla distributes with each update.

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Tesla looks to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market

Tesla has been transparent that it is prioritizing safety, but it believes it can expand to basically any geographical location within the United States and find success with its Robotaxi suite. CEO Elon Musk said it could be available to half of the U.S. population by the end of the year.

Published

5 hours ago

on

September 11, 2025

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla is looking to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market, as the company was spotted testing validation vehicles in one region where it has not yet launched its ride-hailing service.

After launching Robotaxi in Austin in late June, Tesla followed up with a relatively quick expansion to the Bay Area of California. Both service areas are operating with a geofence that is expansive: In Texas, it is 173 square miles, while in the Bay Area, it is roughly 400 square miles.

Tesla has been transparent that it is prioritizing safety, but it believes it can expand to basically any geographical location within the United States and find success with its Robotaxi suite. CEO Elon Musk said it could be available to half of the U.S. population by the end of the year.

There have been plenty of reports out there that have speculated as to where Tesla would land next to test Robotaxi, and Nevada, Florida, Arizona, and New York have all been in the realm of possibility. These regions will need to approve Tesla for regulatory purposes before Robotaxi can officially operate.

Tesla is still testing and performing validation in several regions, and in Tempe, Arizona, things are moving forward as a Model Y with a LiDAR rig was spotted performing ground truth for the platform:

With the LiDAR unit, many followers of the self-driving and autonomy space might wonder why Tesla uses these apparatuses during validation, especially considering the company’s stance and vision-based approach.

LiDAR is used for “ground truth,” which is basically a solidification or confirmation of what the cameras on the car are seeing. It is a great way to essentially confirm the accuracy of the vision-based suite, and will not be used on Robotaxi units used within the ride-hailing suite.

The Robotaxi platform was made available to the public earlier this month, as Tesla launched its app for iOS users.

Tesla Robotaxi app download rate demolishes Uber, Waymo all-time highs

Downloading the app allows you to join a waitlist, giving you the opportunity to utilize and test the Robotaxi platform in either Austin or the Bay Area.

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