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Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 can be equated to the Manhattan Project: expert
For the longest time, Tesla has played the role of a disruptor, a force in the auto industry that pushes other companies to change and acknowledge the legitimacy of battery electric vehicles. But with the company’s 20 million EV goal for 2030, Tesla is trying to go far beyond disruption — it’s trying to fundamentally remake the global auto industry and the battery sector at the same time.
If successful, Tesla could become the world’s largest company. Billionaire investor and longtime Tesla bull Ron Baron mentioned this recently when he noted that the only company that could probably follow the EV maker is Elon Musk’s private space firm, SpaceX. Selling 20 million vehicles in 2030 would also make Tesla an automaker that matches Toyota and Volkswagen’s sales today combined, holding about 20% of the global vehicle market.
Needless to say, Tesla’s goals are extremely ambitious. For the company to achieve this, Tesla should see a 14-fold increase over the estimated 1.4 million or so vehicles that it is hoping to sell this year. It will also cost hundreds of billions of dollars, as per a Reuters analysis of Tesla’s financial disclosures and forecasts on the electric vehicle sector as a whole.
Michael Tracy of The Agile Group, a manufacturing expert, noted that Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 is so ambitious, it could be equated to the Manhattan Project, the United States’ massive effort in the Second World War that paved the way to the creation of nuclear weapons. “I’d equate this with the Manhattan Project in World War Two,” Tracy said.
Tesla has been growing fast, but it will have to grow at an unprecedented rate in the coming years if it wishes to hit its 2030 target. Tesla would have to construct about seven or eight more Gigafactories every 12 months or so in the coming years. It would also need to secure about 30 times as much battery capacity to supply its operations. Reuters estimated that it would cost an estimated $400 billion over the next eight years to build Tesla’s manufacturing footprint across the globe and another $200 billion to build or purchase batteries.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which tracks the worldwide EV battery segment, noted that Tesla would likely have to secure 2.0 million tons of lithium, 1.3 million tons of nickel, 0.2 million tons of cobalt, and 3.5 million tons of graphite to support its 20 million EV goal in 2030. This is about four times as much lithium and nickel, about twice as much cobalt, and seven times as much graphite as the entire electric vehicle segment is looking to consume this year.
Tesla has been busy pursuing its ambitious 2030 goal. Former Tesla executives interviewed by the publication noted that Tesla had started signing offtake agreements with miners and refiners over a decade ago. The former Tesla executives reportedly noted that the company currently has deals with over 20 materials suppliers across the globe.
While experts today have stated that the raw material capacity needed to support Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 does not exist for now, the electric vehicle maker has a reputation for having great foresight. It may seem inconceivable now, but Tesla was considered insane in the past when it decided to build Gigafactory Nevada to prepare for the Model 3’s ramp. Back then, experts also questioned whether such a massive investment was warranted because the demand for EVs was still uncertain. But as history would show, Tesla was eventually proven right.
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The Tesla Model Y L is arguably the most hyped trim of the all-electric crossover, other than the Performance configuration that comes with white-knuckle speed and sports car-level handling.
However, it is not all perfect. Tesla owners in China who took delivery of the Model Y L, denoted with an L to highlight its longer wheelbase, are experiencing what they are referring to as “collapsing” of the rear wheels, as suspension issues appear to be an issue with some of the builds.
🚨 Model Y L owners in China report rear suspension sag
• Six-seat long-wheelbase Y. Shanghai. On sale since August 2025
• Owners say the rear tire-to-arch gap shrinks after mileage or a full load. Some cases after about 9,000 km loaded. Others near 30,000 km
• Tesla service… pic.twitter.com/Lr6i5Tbi07— Joe Hansen (@joehansen) September 1, 2026
The gap between the wheel arch and tire has narrowed to the point that “not even a single finger” could fit, according to a report from Car News China. The failures are not tied to a specific mileage, as one owner said that after just 9,000 kilometers (5,600 miles), they noticed the suspension issue when their car was fully loaded.
Another one had the issue at 30,000 kilometers (18,640 miles) and noticed that the wheel gap shrank to two fingers, so not as drastic as the person who reported a similar issue at 9,000 km.
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
Along with the visual recognition of the issue, others are saying the sagging is causing abnormal wear on the inside of the tires. Extra weight and instant torque already provide additional stress on the tires in electric vehicles during normal operation, so it is no surprise that this is another complaint.
There has been no recall issued by Tesla, and the company has not yet publicly acknowledged the issue.
Some are suggesting that owners use a “finger test” to self-diagnose whether there is an issue with the suspension. There should be four fingers between the tire and the wheel well; anything less than that starts to get dicey.
Tesla is starting to truly tease and hype its groundbreaking Cybercab event, which takes place tomorrow in Austin, Texas. It will be the first time members of the public will be able to ride in a Cybercab, a vehicle without any manual controls, on public roads.
Tesla has been dropping some hype on X over the past several days, but this morning, the excitement has truly started to build up for the event. Although Cybercab has been unveiled before, this is truly Tesla’s announcement that it is ready to start offering autonomous rides for public passengers in its new ride-hailing-geared vehicle for the first time.
The hype has started with a variety of different social media posts that are a true indication that Tesla is preparing for something big. Teasing so much of the potential of Cybercab, including its ability to truly revolutionize how people hail rides for local travel, is what the big idea for the event entails. The time that many Tesla owners, fans, and investors have been waiting for is potentially here:
— Tesla (@Tesla) September 2, 2026
The event has remained slim on details. Even invitees are still awaiting true details about what the event will entail, where they’ll go, and what is in store for the evening. This is pretty typical for an event run by Tesla; they keep things under wraps for the most part until the very last minute.
However, there is no secret about what the real intention of Tesla is for this event: it is going to be a huge reveal party for a vehicle that has no steering wheel and no pedals. It is a truly massive step for the company moving forward.
No steering wheel, no pedals
— Tesla Robotaxi (@robotaxi) September 2, 2026
Speculation persists as to whether this is going to be an event that simply announces that rides will begin with the Cybercab, or it will be something more substantial. Tesla has said in the past that they plan to sell the Cybercab to the general public in what could become a great way to earn passive income by adding it to a more global fleet of Robotaxi-geared vehicles.
Tomorrow, the show begins in Austin, and the Cybercab goes live at some capacity; we just don’t know exactly how quite yet.
News
SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit
SpaceX filed with the FCC for Starship Flight 14, its first true orbital launch attempt.
SpaceX has asked the Federal Communications Commission for permission to fly Starlink terminals during Starship’s fourteenth flight test, and the filing lays out a genuine trip to orbit, something the program has never attempted.
Every Starship flight so far, including Flight 13’s successful splashdown in the Indian Ocean on July 24, has flown a suborbital arc that ends with the ship reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launches. The FCC paperwork describes a mission profile built around an actual orbital insertion instead.
The payload is the other half of the story. Flight 13 carried 20 production Starlink V3 satellites, but because that mission never reached orbit, the satellites reentered along with the ship rather than joining the constellation, something Teslarati covered in detail after SpaceX released footage shot from one of those satellites as it drifted away from Starship in space. Flight 14 is designed to close that gap. If the orbital insertion holds, the roughly 20 V3 satellites onboard would separate into an operational orbit and could eventually go into service, each one rated for about 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity by SpaceX’s own account.
SpaceX announces new Starbase for ‘thousands of Starship launches annually’
Elon Musk first flagged the orbital attempt during SpaceX’s August 4 earnings call, the company’s first as a public entity following its June IPO under the ticker SPCX. He also floated catching the ship with the Starbase tower on the same flight, an idea he walked back on August 20, saying the catch attempt would more likely come “in a few months,” as Teslarati reported at the time. Flight 14 will instead target a splashdown for the ship in the Indian Ocean, the same recovery method used since Flight 12.
Hardware has been catching up to the ambition. Booster 21 completed a full 33-engine static fire on August 28, and Ship 41 finished its own six-engine test the week before. An airspace briefing circulated to pilots on August 20 listed September 15 as the target date, later than the end of August window Musk mentioned on the earnings call, though SpaceX has not confirmed a launch date publicly and Starship schedules routinely slip while hardware and FAA paperwork line up.
The FCC filing itself does not guarantee a launch date. It covers communications authority, and not flight readiness, considering SpaceX still needs Ship 41 fully stacked and cleared by the FAA before Flight 14 can fly. But the filing is a real marker of intent and it puts a specific regulatory process behind what had so far only been Musk’s word on the earnings call.
Tesla Model Y L gets suspension complaints in over odd issue China
Tesla Cybercab event gains steam ahead of massive launch
