News
Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 can be equated to the Manhattan Project: expert
For the longest time, Tesla has played the role of a disruptor, a force in the auto industry that pushes other companies to change and acknowledge the legitimacy of battery electric vehicles. But with the company’s 20 million EV goal for 2030, Tesla is trying to go far beyond disruption — it’s trying to fundamentally remake the global auto industry and the battery sector at the same time.
If successful, Tesla could become the world’s largest company. Billionaire investor and longtime Tesla bull Ron Baron mentioned this recently when he noted that the only company that could probably follow the EV maker is Elon Musk’s private space firm, SpaceX. Selling 20 million vehicles in 2030 would also make Tesla an automaker that matches Toyota and Volkswagen’s sales today combined, holding about 20% of the global vehicle market.
Needless to say, Tesla’s goals are extremely ambitious. For the company to achieve this, Tesla should see a 14-fold increase over the estimated 1.4 million or so vehicles that it is hoping to sell this year. It will also cost hundreds of billions of dollars, as per a Reuters analysis of Tesla’s financial disclosures and forecasts on the electric vehicle sector as a whole.
Michael Tracy of The Agile Group, a manufacturing expert, noted that Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 is so ambitious, it could be equated to the Manhattan Project, the United States’ massive effort in the Second World War that paved the way to the creation of nuclear weapons. “I’d equate this with the Manhattan Project in World War Two,” Tracy said.
Tesla has been growing fast, but it will have to grow at an unprecedented rate in the coming years if it wishes to hit its 2030 target. Tesla would have to construct about seven or eight more Gigafactories every 12 months or so in the coming years. It would also need to secure about 30 times as much battery capacity to supply its operations. Reuters estimated that it would cost an estimated $400 billion over the next eight years to build Tesla’s manufacturing footprint across the globe and another $200 billion to build or purchase batteries.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which tracks the worldwide EV battery segment, noted that Tesla would likely have to secure 2.0 million tons of lithium, 1.3 million tons of nickel, 0.2 million tons of cobalt, and 3.5 million tons of graphite to support its 20 million EV goal in 2030. This is about four times as much lithium and nickel, about twice as much cobalt, and seven times as much graphite as the entire electric vehicle segment is looking to consume this year.
Tesla has been busy pursuing its ambitious 2030 goal. Former Tesla executives interviewed by the publication noted that Tesla had started signing offtake agreements with miners and refiners over a decade ago. The former Tesla executives reportedly noted that the company currently has deals with over 20 materials suppliers across the globe.
While experts today have stated that the raw material capacity needed to support Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 does not exist for now, the electric vehicle maker has a reputation for having great foresight. It may seem inconceivable now, but Tesla was considered insane in the past when it decided to build Gigafactory Nevada to prepare for the Model 3’s ramp. Back then, experts also questioned whether such a massive investment was warranted because the demand for EVs was still uncertain. But as history would show, Tesla was eventually proven right.
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Elon Musk
Tesla preps for a harsh potential reality if Musk comp vote doesn’t go to plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
Tesla could be forced to look for a new CEO in the coming months, as a crucial November 6 Shareholder Meeting vote will determine whether Elon Musk will stick around.
A major vote is coming up at the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, as investors will determine whether Musk should be given a new compensation plan that would award him up to $1 trillion and more than one-fourth of the total voting power within the company.
Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That’s my biggest concern,” Musk said at last week’s Earnings Call. “That’s what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don’t feel comfortable wielding that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”
Tesla Board of Directors Head Robyn Denholm has been on somewhat of a PR tour over the past few days, answering questions about the compensation plan, which is among the biggest issues currently for the company.
Denholm told Bloomberg yesterday that Tesla investors need to be prepared for Musk to abandon ship if the package is not approved, which brings on a new question: Who would take over the CEO role?
That is a question Denholm also answered yesterday, bringing forth the conclusion that Tesla would not look for an outside hire if Musk were to leave the company. Instead, it would promote someone internally.
The way it was reported by Bloomberg and Reuters seems to make it seem as if Tesla is preparing for the worst, as it states the company “is looking at internal CEO candidates,” not preparing to do so.
Of the executives at Tesla who immediately come to mind as ideal candidates for a potential takeover should Musk leave, Tesla China President Tom Zhu and Head of AI Ashok Elluswamy both come to mind. Zhu has monumental executive experience already, as he was appointed to the role of Senior VP of Automotive back in December 2022.
He then returned to China in 2024.
It seems Tesla wants to align its future, with or without Musk, on the same path that it is currently on, and internal candidates might have a better idea of what that looks like and truly means.
News
Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) is nearing approval in a new country
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
It appears that Tesla FSD (Supervised) is heading to a new country soon, at least based on comments from Israel’s Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev.
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
Israeli drivers are pushing for FSD rollout
While Tesla’s FSD is already operational in markets like the U.S., Canada, and Australia, Israeli owners have long been unable to use the feature due to regulatory barriers. Despite its premium price tag, however, numerous Tesla owners in Israel have noted that the technology’s safety benefits, at least when approved for real-world use in the country, justify its cost.
It was then no surprise that nearly 1,000 Tesla owners in Israel have already petitioned the government to greenlight FSD’s domestic release in Israel. In a post on X, Regev seemed to confirm that FSD is indeed coming to Israel. “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel,” she wrote in her post.
FSD’s regulatory support in Israel
Regev stated that her Ministry views promoting innovative technologies as essential to improving both road safety and smart mobility. A working group led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, Director General of the Ministry of Transportation has reportedly been tasked to finalize the approval process, coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to ensure compliance with international standards.
In a comment to Geektime, Israel’s Ministry of Transportation and Road Safety noted that Regev is indeed supporting the release of FSD in the country. “Minister Regev sees great importance in promoting innovative technologies, and in particular in the entry of advanced driving systems (FSD) into the Israeli market, as part of the ministry’s policy to encourage innovation, safety, and smart transportation,” the Ministry stated.
Investor's Corner
Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Robotaxi and Optimus momentum
Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.
“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.
Still a Neutral rating
Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation.
“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.
Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.
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