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Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 can be equated to the Manhattan Project: expert

Credit: MKBHD/YouTube

Published

4 years ago

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For the longest time, Tesla has played the role of a disruptor, a force in the auto industry that pushes other companies to change and acknowledge the legitimacy of battery electric vehicles. But with the company’s 20 million EV goal for 2030, Tesla is trying to go far beyond disruption — it’s trying to fundamentally remake the global auto industry and the battery sector at the same time. 

If successful, Tesla could become the world’s largest company. Billionaire investor and longtime Tesla bull Ron Baron mentioned this recently when he noted that the only company that could probably follow the EV maker is Elon Musk’s private space firm, SpaceX. Selling 20 million vehicles in 2030 would also make Tesla an automaker that matches Toyota and Volkswagen’s sales today combined, holding about 20% of the global vehicle market. 

Needless to say, Tesla’s goals are extremely ambitious. For the company to achieve this, Tesla should see a 14-fold increase over the estimated 1.4 million or so vehicles that it is hoping to sell this year. It will also cost hundreds of billions of dollars, as per a Reuters analysis of Tesla’s financial disclosures and forecasts on the electric vehicle sector as a whole. 

Michael Tracy of The Agile Group, a manufacturing expert, noted that Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 is so ambitious, it could be equated to the Manhattan Project, the United States’ massive effort in the Second World War that paved the way to the creation of nuclear weapons. “I’d equate this with the Manhattan Project in World War Two,” Tracy said. 

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Tesla has been growing fast, but it will have to grow at an unprecedented rate in the coming years if it wishes to hit its 2030 target. Tesla would have to construct about seven or eight more Gigafactories every 12 months or so in the coming years. It would also need to secure about 30 times as much battery capacity to supply its operations. Reuters estimated that it would cost an estimated $400 billion over the next eight years to build Tesla’s manufacturing footprint across the globe and another $200 billion to build or purchase batteries.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which tracks the worldwide EV battery segment, noted that Tesla would likely have to secure 2.0 million tons of lithium, 1.3 million tons of nickel, 0.2 million tons of cobalt, and 3.5 million tons of graphite to support its 20 million EV goal in 2030. This is about four times as much lithium and nickel, about twice as much cobalt, and seven times as much graphite as the entire electric vehicle segment is looking to consume this year. 

Tesla has been busy pursuing its ambitious 2030 goal. Former Tesla executives interviewed by the publication noted that Tesla had started signing offtake agreements with miners and refiners over a decade ago. The former Tesla executives reportedly noted that the company currently has deals with over 20 materials suppliers across the globe. 

While experts today have stated that the raw material capacity needed to support Tesla’s 20 million EV goal for 2030 does not exist for now, the electric vehicle maker has a reputation for having great foresight. It may seem inconceivable now, but Tesla was considered insane in the past when it decided to build Gigafactory Nevada to prepare for the Model 3’s ramp. Back then, experts also questioned whether such a massive investment was warranted because the demand for EVs was still uncertain. But as history would show, Tesla was eventually proven right. 

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Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla owner attempts resale of Model S Signature Edition for over $260k

Published

43 minutes ago

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July 14, 2026

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Credit: Tesla

A Tesla owner who purchased a Model S Signature Edition, one of the final 250 units of the all-electric flagship vehicle that the company discontinued earlier this year, is attempting to sell the car despite a no-resale clause that prohibits reselling for the first year.

The car is being sold by J&S Autohaus in Ewing, New Jersey, and is priced at $260,490, well above the $159,420 that Tesla sold it for earlier this year.

To those who do not know, the Model S Signature was a highly exclusive, limited-run farewell variant of the Model S Plaid that was produced this year to mark the end of production of both the Model S and Model X, Tesla’s two flagship vehicles.

Limited to just 250 units with invite-only sales, it serves as a collector’s item celebrating the legacy of the Model S, which helped pioneer Tesla’s electric vehicle success since its 2012 launch.

It bundles top-tier performance with bespoke cosmetic and luxury upgrades, plus Tesla’s Luxe Package. Here’s what the Model S Signature has over the typical Model S Plaid:

  • Exclusive Exterior – Unique Garnet Red Paint, matching door handles, gold Tesla “T” badges upfront, gold Plaid and Signature badging at the rear.
  • Premium Interior – White Alcantara upholstery with gold piping/accents, gold Plaid seat badges, Signature-marked door sills, individually numbered dashboard plaque, gold puddle lights, special interior lighting sequence, and a custom Signature key fob.
  • Performance Upgrades – Carbon-ceramic brakes with gold calipers
  • Bundled Luxe Package – Full Self-Driving (Supervised), four years of Premium Connectivity, free lifetime Supercharging
  • Performance Metrics – ~1,020 horsepower, sub-2-second 0-60 MPH, ~390-mile range

Tesla quickly introduced a No Resale Agreement for the Signature Editions of the Model S and Model X, which would penalize the seller for “the amount of $50,000 or the value received as consideration for the sale or transfer, whichever is greater.”

The company continues:

“If you sell or otherwise transfer the ownership of your Model S or Model X, the remainder of the Recommended Maintenance, Wheel and Tire Protection Plan, and Windshield Protection Plan will transfer automatically to the buyer. The Full Self-Driving (Supervised), Free Supercharging and Premium Connectivity will not transfer with the vehicle and will terminate once the ownership of the Model S or Model X is transferred.”

Tesla will likely come after the seller, especially as it has been about two months since Tesla launched deliveries.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.3.5 Early Impressions: new features and early performance

Published

4 hours ago

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July 14, 2026

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Credit: TESLARATI

Tesla rolled out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.3.5 yesterday, and about fifty miles of driving on the new version has given me enough time to highlight what seems to be strong about the release and what is not.

Additionally, Tesla has added a few new features with this specific update, which we’ll highlight as well.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.3.5 Performance

The new update is business as usual. Things seem to be running completely normal and necessary, but there are a few things that we’ve seemed to pick up on based on our own experience with v14.3.5, as well as what other users are seeing.

Initially, it seems to be more aware of its surroundings, making moves that are incredibly courteous to other drives and operating just a tad more reserved than what the suite might have done previously.

We had two instances where it showed this, the first being FSD needing to pass a Flagger Force vehicle that was placing down signage for the day. Their work truck was right at the front corner of a right-hand turn; typically where most cars travel when they take that turn.

FSD v14.3.5 recognized this, slowed down, and took the turn wide with no issues:

Additionally, v14.3.5 backed up for a semi truck that was making a wide turn onto a road my car was on. This is not new, but it seemed to be backing up for courtesy; it didn’t seem completely necessary, but it might have put some peace of mind in the truck driver’s head:

X user Mike P, also a Pennsylvania native like myself, shared three clips of his Tesla running v14.3.5 performing similar maneuvers. He said:

“FSD turns right into a small alley that only fits one car at a time, sees oncoming car, reverses out of alley to make space, realizes oncoming car is actually parking, re-enters alley.”
Check it out here:

It seems like Speed Profiles are still in need of some tweaking; I am adjusting what Speed Profile I’m in frequently, constantly changing it to get it to travel at the correct speed. This was an issue for me on v14.3.4. It seems like they’re just a little inconsistent.

Terrible Parking

Parking attempts on v14.3.5 were not good. There are quite a few people who have said this:

David Moss, the Tesla owner who has taken multiple coast-to-coast drives without any interventions, also has had some issues with parking early on with v14.3.5:

New Features

Tesla has added the ability to open Camera Preview at any time. Previously, it was only available in Park. Here’s what that feature looks like in action:

Check back later this week for a longer review of what we’ve noticed on Full Self-Driving v14.3.5.

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Lifestyle

Tesla makes the cut on California’s newest EV Rebate program

California just signed a $270 million EV rebate into law and it starts this summer.

Published

9 hours ago

on

July 13, 2026

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tesla fremont

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 168 into law on Monday, July 13, 2026, creating a $270 million EV rebate program that delivers money directly at the dealership rather than as a tax credit applied months later. The program, called MyFirstEV, is funded equally by California’s state budget and participating automakers, with each contributing $135.5 million to make the math work.

The timing is directly tied to the loss of federal support when the $7,500 federal EV tax credit ended, removing the most significant consumer incentive that had driven EV adoption in the U.S. California, which accounts for roughly one-third of all EVs sold nationally, moved to fill that gap with a state-level replacement.

The rebate structure is straightforward. First-time EV buyers can receive $3,500 off any new battery-electric vehicle with an MSRP up to $50,000. Used EVs priced at $25,000 or below qualify for a $1,750 rebate. The credit is applied at the point of sale, which removes the friction of the old federal system where buyers had to wait for tax season to see the benefit. The program goes live later this summer, with the California Air Resources Board expected to release full participation details next month.

California hits Tesla Cybercab and Robotaxi driverless cars with new law

For Tesla buyers, the implications are mixed. The Tesla Model 3 RWD at $42,490 and the Model 3 Long Range at $47,490 both fall under the $50,000 cap and would qualify for the full $3,500 rebate for first-time buyers. The Model Y, which starts at $44,990 after Tesla’s recent price adjustment, also qualifies. The Model X, Model S, and Cybertruck all exceed the cap and receive no benefit. As Teslarati has reported, the program also includes a carve-out exempting California-based automakers like Rivian and Lucid from the price cap entirely, a provision that puts Tesla at a disadvantage since it relocated its headquarters to Texas in 2021.

Other qualifying vehicles include the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, and Volkswagen ID.4.

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