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Tesla Aviation? Morgan Stanley says yes, and it could be worth $1,000 per share

Credit: SpaceX

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has already changed the automotive industry for the better through its development of industry-leading electric cars. However, the company’s work is far from over. While the automaker is still trying to figure out the next revolutionary breakthrough in EV development, the analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that Tesla will eventually expand its product line to aviation products. It could be worth big gains in the long run for shareholders.

In a note released earlier today, a team of Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Jonas brought along their thoughts for Tesla Aviation. Although Tesla is still working on EV development, Morgan Stanley made it clear that their expectations for the company are to eventually expand to aviation, working toward sustainable transportation in the air and not just the ground.

“In our view, the chance that Tesla does not ultimately offer products and services to the eVTOL/UAM (Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing, and Urban Air Mobility) market is remote,” the note said. “The potential skills transferability and network adjacencies are too strong to ignore.”

Now while CEO Elon Musk has not specifically mentioned that Tesla will be involved in the development of all-electric air transport, he has hinted in the past that there should be more sustainable options for aviation. In October 2020, Musk Tweeted, “There should be a new supersonic jet, this time electric.”

While speculation persists that Tesla could be involved in the eventual development of these products, the company has never explicitly commented on their involvement in the possibility. In all honesty, though, what company would be better suited to develop these types of products?

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Morgan Stanley agrees with this assessment, indicating that the company’s potential in the e-aviation sector would be monumental. While companies in the aviation sector have been mentioned in the past, Tesla is being left out of this conversation. Why? “Quite simply, it is because Elon Musk hasn’t really talked about it. In fact, he’s barely mentioned it.”

The team of analysts at the Wall Street-based firm also mention that Musk has been dismissive of the “flying car genre” because “advancing the state of 3-dimensional transport via tunnels or space” is the prioritized task at the moment. But this could ultimately change down the road, Morgan Stanley says, by 2050. “We’ll have Teslas on our roads, underground in tunnels…on Mars. But not in Earth’s skies? Well…we’re not convinced.”

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“We have run a range of scenarios flexing market share and EBITDA margin assumptions based on our global eVTOL/UAM model (a $9tn TAM by 2050…yes….2050). Discounted back to the present on a per-share basis, we’re coming up with potential preliminary outcomes on the order of $100 per Tesla share on the low-end to approximately $1,000 per Tesla share (or more) on the high end,” the note said. The current $900 price target the firm has for Tesla does not include its potential participation in the aviation sector.

Tesla plans to bring some “flying” products to the market soon, especially with the Roadster that Musk has planned to install a SpaceX package to allow short-term hovering. Purely speculative by Morgan Stanley, their predictions of a Tesla aviation business are lofty. Still, it’s not completely out of the question that the company could eventually expand its expertise into other sectors that have to do with transportation.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with tips! Email us at tips@teslarati.com, or you can email me directly at joey@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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SpaceX Starship Flight 13 aborted at Zero and Musk just told us what broke

Four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-zero, forcing SpaceX to scrub Starship Flight 13 Thursday.

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SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch attempt Thursday evening at the last possible moment, after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the startup sequence. The 90-minute window had opened at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, and the countdown had proceeded without issue all day, with more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen being fully loaded into the rocket before the automated abort triggered. SpaceX’s launch directors posted on X, “Standing down from today’s flight test attempt,” and shut down the livestream shortly after.

Musk confirmed the root cause within hours. “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” he wrote on X. “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.” SpaceX engineers began draining propellant tanks immediately and Booster 20 was rolled back to its hangar for inspection.

SpaceX comes with a slew of changes for Starship Flight 13

 

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The timing adds a layer of significance that did not exist during any of the previous 12 Starship flights. This is the first time SpaceX has attempted to launch Starship since the company made its stock market debut in June, listing under ticker SPCX at $135 per share. Public investors are now watching every Starship outcome in real time, and a last-second abort carries more visibility than it would have six months ago.

Flight 13 was designed to be one of the most consequential tests in the program’s history. It was set to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational payload Starship has ever attempted to deploy. Six of those satellites carried external cameras to photograph Starship’s heat shield from the outside during flight, which would act as a self-inspection approach SpaceX has never attempted before. The mission also needed to complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped on Flight 12 in May after losing an engine during ascent. That Flight 12 booster also flipped 90 degrees off course during its boostback burn when five engines failed to reignite.

SpaceX has not announced an official next launch date. Musk’s “early next week” window points to July 21 or 22 at the earliest, pending the engine swap and a return to the pad.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid CEO dispels any rumors of bankruptcy: ‘So far from the facts’

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Credit: Lucid

Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli responded to rumors of an imminent bankruptcy that was reportedly being mulled after a report stated the automaker was working with the firm AlixPartners to iron out its next steps.

The company felt a massive loss on Wall Street yesterday, as the report essentially pushed the stock down as much as 55 percent on Tuesday.

The report, published initially by Eletric-Vehicles.com, claimed Lucid was essentially in dire straits and was told by AlixPartners, a commonly used restructuring advisor, to either take shares private or file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Lucid’s head of Communications, Nick Twork, immediately challenged the report and stated the company “has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year.”

Now, the company’s CEO is chiming in as well, stating that the report is “so far from the facts that they require a direct response.”

Napoli said:

“Lucid is not considering bankruptcy or a transaction to take the company private. Those reports are false. The Board did not explore either scenario. Period.

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As disclosed in our most recent quarterly filing, Lucid has sufficient liquidity to fund its operations well into next year.

We work with outside advisors to improve operational performance and execution. They are not advising Lucid on a take-private transaction or bankruptcy, and any suggestion that they have recommended either course of action to management or the Board is false.

My priority is clear: turn this company around. That is where the leadership team and I are focused.

I look forward to providing a full update during our quarterly earnings call on August 4th.”

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It seems pretty clear that Lucid is confident things will be okay, and, to be honest, they should not have much to worry about, especially considering the company has been backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for years. It has solid financial backing, and its sales, while weak, are pretty much right on par with a company of this age.

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Lucid also sent a Cease & Desist letter to the publication for their report.

Lucid shares have rebounded nicely and are up nearly 21 percent at the time of publication. As soon as the company dispelled the rumors of bankruptcy yesterday, the stock began to climb back toward more reasonable levels.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Credit: Lucid

Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group has denied rumors of an imminent bankruptcy after a report from this morning sent the stock on a dramatic drop on Wall Street, seeing losses of more than 40 percent during trading hours.

Lucid’s Director of Communications, Nick Twork, responded to the report from Eletric-Vehicles.com, which stated the company’s restructuring advisor, AlixPartners, was asked to review two decisions: taking Lucid shares private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The report also claims AlixPartners told the Lucid board to “concentrate on Gravity production while improving its quality, and to temporarily hold back the Lucid Air, the sedan that has defined the company since its launch.”

Twork said:

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Shares rebounded after the response to the report, halving its losses as the trading day neared 3 p.m. Eastern.

Lucid has struggled to get its sales off the ground and into more respectable numbers, but the company is in its early years, when things are hard to begin with. It is also backed by several notable investors, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has nearly limitless money and likely would not ditch an investment of this size so soon.

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Lucid shares were down just 14 percent at the time of publication, a far cry from the 55 percent its losses topped out at during the day.

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