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Tesla battery predicted to have 80% capacity after 840,000 km (521,000 mi)

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An updated battery study based on crowdsourced data from Model S and Model X owners suggests that Tesla’s battery pack will still have 80% capacity after reaching 840,000 kilometers (521,952 miles), or nearly 1 million kilometers driven.

An online spreadsheet created by Matteo and maintained by Merijn Coumans via the Dutch-Belgium Tesla Forum tracks battery degradation being experienced by roughly 900 Tesla drivers from around the world. Using a linear progression model, the spreadsheet compiles various data points to create a trend line that suggests remaining battery capacity for a Tesla Model S and Model X over its lifetime.

This information is important to many Tesla owners and would-be buyers as it provides insight to expected driving range a vehicle could have (per single charge) over time.

Tesla Model S and Model X battery degradation chart [Credit: Matteo via Maarten Steinbuch]

The trend line seen in the chart has a slope of 60,000 km (40,000 miles) per 1 percent of 50,000 km (30,000 miles), meaning that on average the battery will degrade by 1 percent every 50,000 km driven. According to Maarten Steinbuch’s blog post, a Tesla Model S or Model X will still retain 92% of its battery capacity at 240,000 km (150,00 miles). By comparison, an internal combustion engine vehicle is expected to reach its end of life at around 220,000 km (140,000 miles).

Data revealed in the crowdsourced battery survey follows suit with recent reports that a Finnish taxi driver who crossed the 400,000 km (250,000 mile) mark in his Tesla Model S experienced only 7 percent degradation.

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In addition, Tesloop, a city-to-city Tesla shuttle service available in Southern California, had its first vehicle reach the 483,000 kilometer (300,000 mile) mark with only $11,000 in vehicle maintenance costs.

“Over the last two years, we have seen that that electric, supercharged vehicles can be deployed at utilization levels unheard of with gas vehicles,” Tesloop said in a statement. “And while saving over $60,000 on fuel and maintenance is a substantial economic win, we feel the bigger win is that this car is ready for another 900,000 miles over the next 6 years under its current warranty.”

It’s worth noting that the battery degradation data we’re seeing is from Tesla’s 18650 cell and not the company’s newest 2170 cell being used on the Model 3. Based on Tesla’s comment that its 2170 cell has improved energy density and an all-around more efficient design, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Model 3 and future fleet’s using this cell type can support more battery cycles, reach 1 million miles of use, and still retain over 80% of its original capacity.

Based on these drivers’ stories, and battery data being compiled by Tesla drivers from around the world, it seems clear that a Tesla has quadruple the lifespan of any ICE car, and can outlast it by nearly ten-fold.

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I'm an East Coast reporter for Teslarati. Contact me at matt@teslarati.com

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Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.

Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.

Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.

Fiorani said:

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“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”

Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.

Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:

It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.

The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.

Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.

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The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.

In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.

This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.

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One of Tesla’s biggest threats just got banned in the U.S.

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In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.

The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.

Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.

Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.

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The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.

While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.

Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.

Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:

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Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns

The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.

By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.

For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.

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Tesla Cybercab stands to gain from new Trump autonomy rules

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla Cybercab stands to gain from new rules that the Trump Administration is aiming to enforce on autonomous vehicles. On Thursday, NHTSA, under the Trump Administration’s U.S. Department of Transportation, commenced rulemaking on the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).

This effort aims to eliminate the mandate for manual brake pedals in vehicles that are designed to be driven exclusively by automated driving systems. This would impact the Tesla Cybercab, which the company has stated would operate without a steering wheel or pedals.

Tesla Cybercab launch is imminent after latest sighting at Giga Texas

The Trump Administration is looking to revise FMVSS No. 135, which requires standard braking systems on light-duty vehicles.

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Currently, the regulation requires light-duty cars to use traditional manual braking systems that allow operators to slow the vehicle. With the advent of self-driving in the U.S., these regulations need updating, and these are the changes that could come to FMVSS No. 135:

  • Removes requirements for hand- or foot-operated brake controls for vehicles designed never to be operated by a human. Existing rules still apply to AVs that retain manual controls.
  • All subject vehicles must still meet the same stopping distance performance criteria via alternative testing procedures.
  • While this update ensures AVs can physically stop when commanded, NHTSA is separately developing safety performance requirements for AVs in real-world driving scenarios.
  • NHTSA will continue to use its broad defect enforcement authority to investigate unsafe ADS behavior and oversee recalls.

As autonomy becomes a greater part of passenger travel, these types of rule adjustments will be more than reasonable. It will give manufacturers the ability to self-certify their vehicles and avoid any red tape that could ultimately delay the deployment of these vehicles.

Administrators are also incredibly excited about the opportunity to play a role in the advancement of self-driving vehicles.

“We are at the cusp of the greatest technological revolution in vehicle technology since the innovation of the Model T,” NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said. “If we want America to lead the way, we have to reimagine our regulatory framework. That’s why under Secretary Sean Duffy’s AV Framework, NHTSA is tearing down pointless barriers to innovative designs while strengthening the fundamental safety requirements that matter and holding AV developers accountable for safe performance.”

The Cybercab entered mass production at Gigafactory Texas in April. Tesla ultimately plans to push the vehicle into its Robotaxi fleet, potentially when frameworks like these are established.

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