Investor's Corner
Tesla billionaire investor Ron Baron supports ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package
Legendary investor Ron Baron has noted that he would be voting in favor of the ratification of Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO Performance Award. Baron’s rationale behind his vote was highlighted in an open letter and discussed in a segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
In his open letter, Baron noted that Musk’s 2018 compensation package included aggressive performance metrics that — at the time when the CEO Performance Award was approved — few believed were possible. Baron highlighted that had Musk not met his very aggressive performance goals, he would have received nothing from the electric vehicle maker.
However, since he achieved his performance goals as Tesla’s CEO, shareholders should honor Musk’s pay package. He also noted that he believes Tesla has the potential to grow even more in the years to come. “When the contract was signed, the company’s market value was $53 billion. It got as high as a trillion, and it’s now $550 billion. I think in the next ten years, we’ll make 4-5 times our money again in Tesla,” Baron noted.
Ron Baron supporting @elonmusk this morning on cnbc @BaronCapital $tsla vote your shares!!!! pic.twitter.com/jwZk3nvZqd— Jim Hall (@jhall) June 5, 2024
Following is Baron’s open letter in support of Musk’s 2018 compensation plan.
Baron Capital supports Elon Musk’s 2018 compensation contract for the following reasons:
-->In 2018, 73% of Tesla’s disinterested shareholders voted in support of Elon’s compensation contract. The will of those owners of the company should be honored. The contractual agreement between the company and Elon should be honored. The voice of shareholders and legally binding contracts should not be permitted to be undone by a shareholder for hire and his strike suit lawyers. The plaintiff shareholder in question owned nine (9) Tesla shares, and the lawyers who represented him have requested they be awarded $5.6 billion in fees! Further, the plaintiff’s lawyers requested their fees be paid in Tesla shares…after its stock price has been depressed by this controversy! Does anyone honestly believe the motivation of the plaintiff and his lawyers was to serve the best interests of Tesla and its shareholders?
Elon’s compensation contract contained aggressive performance metrics that few in 2018 believed could be achieved. If these aggressive performance metrics had not been achieved, Elon would have received nothing. When Tesla achieved targeted earnings, revenues, and market cap metrics, Tesla’s shareholders benefitted greatly. Tesla’s market cap when Elon’s pay package was approved on March 21, 2018 was $53.5 billion. It is approximately $550.75 billion today, after having reached a high watermark of $1.24 trillion in November of 2021. He performed under his compensation contract. He earned his pay.
Elon is the ultimate “key man” of key man risk. Without his relentless drive and uncompromising standards, there would be no Tesla. Especially considering how he slept on the floor of Tesla’s Fremont factory when the company was going through what he called “production hell!”
If shareholders want to protect and grow their investment, they must AGAIN approve his compensation contract.
Shareholders should ask themselves this question: is Tesla better off with or without Elon…whom we believe is the reason 6 million people applied for 12,000 jobs last year to work with this extraordinary individual. Because that is what is at stake. At Baron Capital, our answer is clear, loud, and unequivocal: Tesla is better with Elon.
-->Tesla is Elon.
Ron
June 4, 2024
Ron Baron’s full open letter in support of Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO Performance Award can be fully viewed below.
Baron Capital Tesla Elon Musk Compensation 6.5.2024 by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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