Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) bulls call out ‘excessive’ negativity as bears insist on alleged demand issues
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is currently heading full speed into what could potentially be a record quarter, and Wall Street analysts could not be more split over the company. Just a day after longtime TSLA bear David Tamberrino from Goldman Sachs downgraded the electric car maker’s stock, longtime Tesla supporter Ben Kallo has raised his price target on the company from $340 to $355 per share.
In a recent note, Kallo noted that consensus expectations “have overshot to the negative,” creating a favorable setup for Tesla for the remainder of 2019. The Baird analyst argued that several catalysts are currently present that could drive Tesla higher, starting with the company’s release of its Q2 delivery figures. Kallo also noticed that “bear arguments have preemptively shifted from demand to profitability,” and that a solid second quarter delivery result could set up a positive cash flow quarter, which could then result in TSLA shares rising in the second half of 2019.
Apart from the Baird analyst, Philippe Houchois and Himanshu Agarwal of Jefferies stated that despite being humbled by Tesla’s results in the first quarter, they remain “convinced that there is significant value” in the company. The analysts cut their full-year gross profit estimates by 20%, though they also argued that the negativity surrounding the electric car maker today is excessive, particularly with regards to Tesla’s alleged demand issues and the upcoming competition from other automakers.
The TSLA bulls’ recent arguments stand opposite those of Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino’s points on Thursday. In his note, where he downgraded his TSLA price target from $200 to $158 per share, Tamberrino argued that the decline in Tesla shares would resume as it becomes evident that the demand for the company’s vehicles is “below expectations.” This is well in character for the analyst, who has long been one of TSLA stock’s most aggressive critics.
Last April, for example, Tesla was undergoing a company-wide initiative to hit a then-ambitious production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week. Tamberrino then published a note, stating that Tesla would only be able to maintain a Model 3 production rate equal to around 1,400 units per week for Q2 2018. Similar to his downgrade yesterday, the Goldman analyst also adjusted his TSLA price target, bringing his estimates down from $205 to $195 per share. Tamberrino would ultimately be proven wrong at the end of the second quarter, as Tesla did produce 5,000 Model 3 in one week during the last week of June 2018.
Quite interesting is that Tamberrino’s perennial bearish Tesla calls from Goldman Sachs’ equity research division have remained consistent despite the increasing TSLA holdings of Goldman Sachs’ investment bank. When the analyst gave his 1,400-per-week Model 3 production estimate last year, for example, Goldman’s investment bank held over $330 million worth of TSLA shares. In Q1 2019, which appears to be considered by Tamberrino as a sign of Tesla’s predestined demise due to its lower-than-expected delivery and production numbers, Goldman’s investment bank increased its TSLA position by 35%.
Elon Musk, for his part, has noted that Tesla could be poised for a record quarter, one that even exceeds Q4 2018, a period where the electric car maker delivered over 90,000 vehicles to customers. Tesla is currently in full throttle as the final days of the second quarter count down, and based on recent reports, it appears that the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker is digging deep to hit its self-imposed targets.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +0.69% at $222.14 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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