News
Tesla Model 3 gross margin could be as high as 39% in China: report
Recent reports from China point to the idea that the Made-in-China Tesla Model 3 Standard Range+ is making the electric automaker money hand-over-fist, with a nearly 40% gross margin. The large margins Tesla is making on the SR+ Model 3 indicate the company is making a lot of headway in improving its vehicle production process, potentially making way for even more affordable cars.
Tesla owner-enthusiast @Ray4Tesla spotted a post from Chinese technology company Sina Technology, which recently posted details about the MIC Model 3 SR+ and its sizable gross margins.
Sina indicates that the MIC Model 3 SR+ delivered by Tesla in Q1 2020 has a gross margin of 39.37%. This means that with its ¥271,550 price tag ($38,275), the vehicle actually costs ¥188,700 to produce ($26,653). Assuming that Sina‘s figures are accurate, Tesla China could be making a profit of around ¥82,285 ($11,622) per Model 3 SR+ sold.
According to Sina Tech, the gross margin for MIC SR+ Model 3 delivered in Q1 is 39.37%, which is far higher than that of any MBA vehicle. The cost is ¥188,700 or $26,653. Each SR M3 can yield a profit of ¥82,285 or $11,622. The exceptionally high GM signals more price cuts ahead. pic.twitter.com/rBNiEktjqd
— Ray (@ray4tesla) June 12, 2020
This gross price margin exceeds that of any other luxury vehicle, according to Sina.
Automotive veteran Sandy Munro once said that Tesla’s advantage post-COVID-19 would be its ability to build cars in an efficient fashion thanks to the company’s vertical integration. Tesla maintains a shortlist of suppliers for things that the company doesn’t build in-house, but many of its car’s elements are manufactured at or around the company’s Fremont facility. For example, Tesla’s seats are produced at a warehouse just a few minutes from the Fremont production plant.
The vertical integration saves Tesla money by not having to pay suppliers, which also ties into the company’s ability to handle substantial demand shifts.
Tesla has seemingly seen an increased demand in China during the first six months of production at Giga Shanghai. Despite the company’s low sales numbers in April, sales picked up once more as additional configurations of the Model 3 was offered. It should further be noted that April’s dip was not due to decreasing demand. It was because Tesla planned to reduce the price of the SR+ configuration of the sedan to qualify for federal incentives. In May, sales tripled, and the Model 3 was once again the most popular EV in the country.
Tesla’s Chinese battery supplier, CATL, recently developed a million-mile battery pack and has successfully developed a cobalt-free assembly that will reduce the cost of manufacturing. Cobalt is the most expensive metal used in the NCA battery packs that Tesla used. However, Tesla recently received approval to use cobalt-free Lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP) for its Model 3 in China. This will reduce production costs even further and may even lead to additional price cuts down the road.
Tesla sold 11,095 Model 3s in China in May, according to the CPCA, making it the most popular electric car in the country by a country mile. Several factors drive the car’s popularity, but if Tesla can continue to dial-in price cuts while demand increases, the Model 3 could become the most popular car in China altogether.
News
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
