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Tesla’s battery supply constraint is ending, price parity with gas cars is at hand

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Tesla’s Semi is coming, and it will be here sooner than expected. But the production of the vehicle could be pointing to one thing: Tesla is no longer battery constrained.

Past the face value portion of the story, something much bigger is happening. While the Semi entering a “volume production” phase is big news, the development of the commercial vehicle comes at a time where battery production for Tesla seems to be the main focus of the electric automaker.

In Q3 2019, CEO Elon Musk indicated that a shortage of battery cells primarily drove the Semi’s delay. If Tesla wanted to start producing the Semi, the company would have to make cells available for it. That would mean one thing: cutting back on cells utilized for Tesla’s mass-market vehicles, which at the time was the Model 3.

Building the Semi before a sufficient battery production and supply chain was established would have been detrimental to the company’s long-term plans. Of course, the Model 3 has been Tesla’s most popular vehicle since it started deliveries in 2017. Its affordability has helped Tesla reach a new market, which was all apart of Elon’s original Master Plan.

Inside Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai’s battery pack facility. (Credit: Tesla)

With the Model Y now being produced in Fremont, Tesla now has two mass-market vehicles that are affordable by a vast segment of the population. Ultimately, this means that Tesla needed to levy a majority of its available lithium-ion cells for the Model 3 and Model Y. Unfortunately, the Semi just was not a priority over those two cars. Why would it be? The Model 3 (and Model Y now) are Tesla’s two top sellers. Therefore, the battery needs pointed toward the 3 and the Y, with Semi production being dependent on the availability of battery cells.

If we think about Musk’s statement from Q3, he indicated that the Semi production would be based on when Tesla could manufacture the appropriate amount of lithium-ion batteries to power the Class 8 vehicle. Although demand for the 3 and the Y continues to increase, so is Tesla’s production rate, and it could be indicative that the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker is pumping out enough batteries to produce all of its vehicles without any worries of possible cell shortages.

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Ultimately, this idea could lead to another significant development in the EV world as a whole, and that is price parity.

For a long time, analysts have pinpointed the electric vehicle movement’s price parity at $100/kWh for battery cell production. This means that when cells are produced at a high enough rate, batteries will be lower in cost. Then, electric cars will be the same price as gas-powered machines, making the argument of “EVs are too expensive” obsolete.

The Tesla Model 3 Performance utilizes a 75 kWh battery pack. If battery production is at $120/kWh, this would mean that the Model 3 Performance’s battery pack costs $9,000 to produce. The car’s $54,990 price tag, hypothetically at $120 per kWh, is made up of a battery pack that costs about $9,000.

If Tesla could produce batteries at a high enough rate where the cost per kWh could come down to $100, the battery pack would only cost $7,500 to build, meaning an additional $1,500 comes off the price of the vehicle altogether. Tesla’s goal is to produce enough battery cells to justify this pricing point for its cars. Also, $100/kWh is just the price parity point, and not where the cost will ultimately end up. If demand continues to increase and battery cell production keeps growing, the cost could get even lower.

If Tesla has enough batteries to justify producing mass quantities of the Model 3 and Model Y, along with the sizable battery packs of the Semi, parity could be coming sooner than expected. Most analysts indicated 2023 as the year when battery production would be on a level where EV prices could compete with their petrol-powered counterparts.

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However, if the Semi is ready for a production run now, Tesla may have enough cells to introduce a more affordable pricing model for its vehicles. This could, in turn, lead to even higher production numbers, increased demand, and a sharp increase in the company’s delivery numbers.

The announcement of the Tesla Semi meant much more than the company producing its commercial vehicle. It means batteries are no longer in restricted amounts, the technology is improving, and the prices of the company’s vehicles could be coming down soon. With this, it appears that Elon Musk’s endgame with his Master Plan may be getting closer to reality.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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NY Democrats take aim at Tesla direct sales licenses in New York

Democratic Senator Patricia Fahy is pushing to revoke a legislative waiver that allows Tesla to operate five NY locations without using dealer franchises.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Democratic New York State Senator Patricia Fahy, once a Tesla ally, is currently pushing to revoke a legislative waiver that allows the electric vehicle maker to operate five New York locations without using dealer franchises. 

Fahy cited CEO Elon Musk’s role in President Donald Trump’s administration as a reason for her change of heart. 

Fahy’s Shift in Stance

For 12 years, Fahy frequently supported Tesla’s fight to bypass New York’s franchise dealer regulations. But after Elon Musk personally took Donald Trump’s side, and after he worked as part of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Fahy no longer supports the EV maker. Apart from her anti-Tesla efforts in the State Capitol, the Senator has also participated in demonstrations against a planned Tesla dealership in Colonie, as noted in a report from the New York Times.

“Maybe I’m making amends,” Fahy stated, describing Musk as “part of an administration that is killing all the grant funding for electric vehicle infrastructure, killing wind energy, killing anything that might address climate change. Why should we give them a monopoly?” 

Fahy has introduced legislation that would effectively end Tesla’s direct sales operations in New York, as noted in a Syracuse.com report. Her bill argues that Tesla’s legislative waiver provides the EV maker with an unfair advantage. Thus, Fahy wants Tesla to forfeit its five licenses by 2026. The licenses could then be redistributed to other EV makers that also sell directly to consumers, such as Rivian, Lucid, and Scout Motors. 

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Republican Opposition

Republican New York Senator Jacob Ashby has described Senator Fahy’s bill as misguided, arguing that the “government should not be picking winners and losers on this.” Ashby also noted that “political disdain seems to be more at play. We are not recognizing the power and implications of the process that we have and that we should trust it.”

Colonie town supervisor Peter Crummey, also a Republican, stated that “though political sentiments appear to have recently changed for some folks about Tesla’s founder, people should let the Planning Board do their work.” As for requests from state legislators who are inserting themselves into the Tesla issue, Crummer noted that “I am confident we will give them the weight it deserves.”

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Possible first glimpse of Tesla “Model 2” affordable car in Fremont Factory

The models that Tesla will release in the coming months will resemble the company’s current lineup.

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Image Credit: @metgodinwilderness7130/YouTube

During the Q1 earnings call, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy set expectations on the design of the affordable models that the company is expected to launch this 2025. As per the Tesla executive, the models that Tesla will release in the coming months will resemble the company’s current lineup.

Drone footage from the Fremont Factory earlier this month might have provided the EV community its first potential glimpse at Tesla’s affordable cars–fondly dubbed by EV fans and analysts as the “Model 2” or even “Model Q”–or at least their components and overall shape.

The Sighting

Tesla watcher and drone operator Met God in Wilderness, who has been posting aerial videos of the Fremont Factory for years now, recently shared some footage from his drone flyovers this month. While the Fremont Factory was abuzz with activity as usual, a couple of rather strange vehicles were quickly spotted by EV watchers on social media.

During the drone operator’s flyover on the 17th, for example, an unfinished vehicle could be seen parked next to what appeared to be fully-built Model S and Model Y units. What was especially interesting was the vehicle’s roof, which seemed to be slightly narrower than the Model Ys around it. Based on the video, at least, the vehicle seemed to be shaped like a crossover as well.

Footage from the 24th of April also proved quite interesting, with the drone operator capturing footage of another cryptic vehicle. Unlike the mysterious, unfinished, crossover-esque car spotted on the 17th, this particular unit seemed to have a more sloping rear, at least based on the shape of its covering.

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What Lars Moravy Said

In Tesla’s Q1 2025 Update Letter, Tesla noted that “plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.” Tesla also noted that the new vehicles will utilize aspects of its next generation and its current platforms. They will also be produced on the same manufacturing lines as its present vehicle lineup, likely the Model Y and Model 3. 

During the earnings call itself, Moravy specifically stated that the new models that would come out in the next months would resemble the company’s current vehicles. They will, however, be affordable. “Models that come out in next months will be built on our lines and will resemble, in form and shape, the cars we currently make. And the key is that they’ll be affordable, and you’ll be able to buy one,” Moravy stated.

Watch the drone operator’s footage from April 17 below.

The drone operator’s footage from April 24 can be viewed below.

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California proposal to allow self-driving tests for heavy-duty trucks

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Tesla-semi-production-ramp-2023

A new proposal in the state of California would allow initial testing of self-driving heavy-duty trucks, as Tesla and others aim to bring their driverless technologies to market with Class 8 trucks and other large vehicles.

On Friday, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) said that it’s proposing self-driving vehicle tests be allowed on public roads for heavy-duty trucks and other large vehicles, as detailed in a report from Reuters. The news comes as heavy-duty vehicles about 10,001 pounds are currently unable to utilize public self-driving tests in California, as well as others such as Texas, Arizona, and Arkansas.

The proposal would restrict autonomous testing for semi-trucks and other oversized vehicles to specified, pre-selected routes that would be pre-determined to be legal for size, weight, and loading requirements. It would also ban testing these vehicles on city streets, with selected routes primarily including major highways.

The state would also prohibit testing of specific heavy-duty vehicles until further notice under the proposal, including household movers, commercial vehicles used to transport passengers, oversize loads, bulk liquids, or hazardous materials.

READ MORE ON SELF-DRIVING FOR HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS:

The DMV plans to hold a public hearing on the proposal on June 10, after which point it would be allowed to move forward with the agency.

California has been preparing regulations for autonomous trucking since at least last August, when the state submitted an initial draft for such a legal framework.

The state is also evaluating whether light-duty vehicle testing requirements should be updated. Currently, the state requires a permit to test self-driving vehicles utilizing a safety driver, before applying for subsequent phases of driverless testing and deployment permits.

To apply for driverless testing permits, manufacturers are required to conduct testing for a minimum of 50,000 miles, while heavy-duty manufacturers would be required to complete at least 500,000 autonomous testing miles under the proposal. Of them, up to 40,000 of the miles are allowed to be completed outside of California.

The news also follows the Trump administration’s aims to accelerate self-driving deployment this week through the expansion of exemptions for certain reporting requirements.

Although Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) is not currently available for the company’s electric Semi, it’s expected to become available at some point in the future. Tesla has also been spotted testing its FSD on the Semi in and around Giga Nevada, ahead of the company’s plans to launch the software on the Class 8 truck.

Tesla is currently aiming to ramp up production of the Semi, and it’s constructing an expansion to its Gigafactory in Nevada to eventually scale up to volume production.

Tesla receives its first robotaxi permit in California

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