Investor's Corner
Tesla shifts to online-only sales, will close stores to drive vehicle costs down
Tesla will be closing some of its retail store locations in favor of pivoting to an online-only sales model. The news comes as the company launches the long-awaited $35,000 Tesla Model 3 and maintains focus on cost efficiencies, and cost reductions for its entire fleet of all-electric vehicles. “We’re moving all sales online…Worldwide, the only way to buy a Tesla will be online,” said CEO Elon Musk during a press call on Thursday afternoon.
Some Tesla galleries will remain open to allow customers to see and experience its all-electric vehicles before buying, but online purchases coupled with a revamped deposit, return, and refund process will be the primary platform for Tesla sales moving forward.
The online-only sales model looks to serve the main purpose of cutting costs to enable the $35,000 Standard Range Tesla Model 3 vehicle to exist at that price point. When asked whether the shuttering of retail locations would lead to staff layoffs, Musk was honest about that reality.
“We will be closing some stores, and there will be a reduction in headcount…Unfortunately, there’s no way around it,” he said. “We’re sort of in a binary choice. Reduce headcount and sell the $35,000 car and have fewer people, or not provide a $35,000 car.” The CEO also cited a 5-6% reduction in costs from transitioning to the online-only sales and that the savings would translate to a reduction in the price of the Model X and S vehicles as well.
Tesla’s solution to the franchise problem now is apparently to eschew in-person sales altogether. Whether this move is best described as defying convention or ignoring convention entirely is perhaps a matter of perspective, but the outcome is the same. Where Tesla had already cut out the traditional middleman dealer in its sales transactions, now it’s even cutting out the traditional sales person and pitch.
“I’m sure the franchise dealers will try to oppose us in some way, but to do so would be a fundamental restraint on interstate commerce and violate the Constitution. So, good luck with that,” Musk commented on the legal issue during the Q&A portion of Thursday’s call.
Tesla aims to make the buying process as frictionless as possible through a streamlined version of its online vehicle configurator. Musk explained,
“You can buy your car on your phone in about 1 minute in the US, and we will make it just as easy to [make] a 1 minute purchase in other countries as well,”
The ability to purchase a Tesla via the company’s website was already available before the announcement and making the full shift towards an online-only buying experience will have a negligible impact on consumers. “It’s 2019. People just want to buy things online.”
To compensate for losing the test drive component that’s associated with a physical sales locations, Tesla has extended its return policy to 7 days and up to 1,000 miles driven after making a $1,000 deposit, during which time a customer can obtain a full refund.
The retail closure announcement was piggybacked onto the main Tesla announcement of the day, anticipation having been built following a series of Tweets hinting at big news two days prior: Tesla’s $35k Model 3 has finally arrived, offering a 220-mile range and new interior options. The car’s 0-60 mph time is 5.6 seconds with a top speed of 130 mph. According to Tesla’s online configurator, the lowest priced variant is estimated to have a final cost of around $25,000 after tax credits and gas savings. Deliveries can be expected within 2-4 weeks from the purchase date.
With this long-time-coming “affordable EV” milestone finally under Tesla’s belt, its future is certainly going to become evermore exciting with the new possibilities it will enable.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
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