Investor's Corner
Tesla shifts to online-only sales, will close stores to drive vehicle costs down
Tesla will be closing some of its retail store locations in favor of pivoting to an online-only sales model. The news comes as the company launches the long-awaited $35,000 Tesla Model 3 and maintains focus on cost efficiencies, and cost reductions for its entire fleet of all-electric vehicles. “We’re moving all sales online…Worldwide, the only way to buy a Tesla will be online,” said CEO Elon Musk during a press call on Thursday afternoon.
Some Tesla galleries will remain open to allow customers to see and experience its all-electric vehicles before buying, but online purchases coupled with a revamped deposit, return, and refund process will be the primary platform for Tesla sales moving forward.
The online-only sales model looks to serve the main purpose of cutting costs to enable the $35,000 Standard Range Tesla Model 3 vehicle to exist at that price point. When asked whether the shuttering of retail locations would lead to staff layoffs, Musk was honest about that reality.
“We will be closing some stores, and there will be a reduction in headcount…Unfortunately, there’s no way around it,” he said. “We’re sort of in a binary choice. Reduce headcount and sell the $35,000 car and have fewer people, or not provide a $35,000 car.” The CEO also cited a 5-6% reduction in costs from transitioning to the online-only sales and that the savings would translate to a reduction in the price of the Model X and S vehicles as well.
Tesla’s solution to the franchise problem now is apparently to eschew in-person sales altogether. Whether this move is best described as defying convention or ignoring convention entirely is perhaps a matter of perspective, but the outcome is the same. Where Tesla had already cut out the traditional middleman dealer in its sales transactions, now it’s even cutting out the traditional sales person and pitch.
“I’m sure the franchise dealers will try to oppose us in some way, but to do so would be a fundamental restraint on interstate commerce and violate the Constitution. So, good luck with that,” Musk commented on the legal issue during the Q&A portion of Thursday’s call.
Tesla aims to make the buying process as frictionless as possible through a streamlined version of its online vehicle configurator. Musk explained,
“You can buy your car on your phone in about 1 minute in the US, and we will make it just as easy to [make] a 1 minute purchase in other countries as well,”
The ability to purchase a Tesla via the company’s website was already available before the announcement and making the full shift towards an online-only buying experience will have a negligible impact on consumers. “It’s 2019. People just want to buy things online.”
To compensate for losing the test drive component that’s associated with a physical sales locations, Tesla has extended its return policy to 7 days and up to 1,000 miles driven after making a $1,000 deposit, during which time a customer can obtain a full refund.
The retail closure announcement was piggybacked onto the main Tesla announcement of the day, anticipation having been built following a series of Tweets hinting at big news two days prior: Tesla’s $35k Model 3 has finally arrived, offering a 220-mile range and new interior options. The car’s 0-60 mph time is 5.6 seconds with a top speed of 130 mph. According to Tesla’s online configurator, the lowest priced variant is estimated to have a final cost of around $25,000 after tax credits and gas savings. Deliveries can be expected within 2-4 weeks from the purchase date.
With this long-time-coming “affordable EV” milestone finally under Tesla’s belt, its future is certainly going to become evermore exciting with the new possibilities it will enable.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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