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Tesla and the danger of soft budget constraints

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Tesla considering factory in China

 

The Wall Street Journal is not always friendly to Elon Musk and Tesla Motors. In an article published August 16, staff writer Holman Jenkins, Jr. suggests that Tesla is one election away from extinction. Why? Holman bases his analysis on a study of John Z. DeLorean and an economic principle known as soft budget constraints.

The study by Graham Brownlow of Queen’s University Belfast was published in October, 2014. It says one of the foundations for DeLorean’s start-up car company was the willingness of the British government to subsidize the enterprise with grants, tax breaks, government backed loans, and other political incentives.

In 1975 when DeLorean Motors began, conflict between Protestants and Catholics in Ireland was at a fever pitch. The economy of Northern Ireland was in tatters and the British government was desperate to attract manufacturing jobs to the area. DeLorean promised to do just that and the government responded with open arms.

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Brownlow says the support from the government amounted to what economists refer to as soft budget constraints, meaning the company never had to turn a profit. In effect, as DeLorean boasted at the time, the government was in so deep, it had no choice but to continue funding the operation. In layman’s terms, its like having rich parents and knowing they will cover your losses no matter how foolishly you spend your money.

Jenkins says Tesla Motors is similarly positioned. It is the beneficiary of several indirect government subsidies such as  federal and state tax credits, HOV stickers, and the like. He also claims the company benefits from direct government support in the form of loan guarantees and corporate tax credits. Taken together, they provide Tesla with the ability to exceed normal budgetary constraints on a regular basis.

He prefers what he would term the more traditional model, as laid out by Brownlow. “The more [an entrepreneur] expects that the existence and growth of the firm will depend solely on production costs and proceeds from sales, the more he will respect the budget constraint,” Brownlow writes.

Jenkins hints darkly that Musk’s recent decision to bring the start of production of the Model 3 forward by 2 years is a ploy designed to force the federal government to extend the tax credit program for buyers of electric cars. Tesla will be bumping up against the 200,000 vehicle limit in total US sales by the time that car goes on sale.

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He also thinks the merger between Tesla and SolarCity is intended to mute the criticism that Teslas are not as environmentally friendly as they are touted to be, since the majority of electricity in the United States comes from burning fossil fuels like natural gas and coal.

Jenkins reminds readers that John DeLorean’s dream came crashing down once Margaret Thatcher came to power. She turned off the financial spigot that had propped him up, with predictable results. The implication is that Tesla is just one election away from a similar fate.

Jenkins could be the designated cheerleader for all the people who have shorted Tesla stock. The comments appended to his story in the Journal make it clear his opinions have plenty of enthusiastic supporters, many of whom view Elon Musk as little more than a scam artist.

In his efforts to advocate for a level playing field where every corporation pays all its bills on time, pays all its taxes, never accepts a hand out from the government, and always does the right thing, he conveniently overlooks the $5 trillion a year in direct and indirect subsidies the International Monetary Fund says are provided to the fossil fuel industry every year.

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There is a coda to the DeLorean story, one that is seldom told. It is said that John Z personally selected the spot where his factory in Northern Ireland would be built. The Irish have a long and steadfast belief in what they call “the little people.” We call them leprechauns.

According to the story, the site DeLorean chose required the removal of a whitethorn tree. Now, everyone knows the little people build their homes in the roots of whitethorn trees. Uprooting one is guaranteed to bring some seriously bad mojo down on your head.

What happened to DeLorean only proves that legend may be more powerful than economic theory. The antidote to Jenkins’ gloomy predictions may be to inform Elon he must never cut down a whitethorn tree to build one of his factories.

Source: Wall Street Journal

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SpaceXAI signs agreement with Anthropic for massive AI supercomputer access

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceXAI announced today that it had signed an agreement with Anthropic to give the company access to its Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, Tennessee.

It is a monumental deal as Anthropic will gain access to all of the compute at the plant, delivering more than 300 megawatts of power and over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs within the month.

Anthropic’s Claude AI account on X announced the partnership:

We’ve agreed to a partnership with SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity. This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.”

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The company is also:

  • Doubling Claude Code’s 5-hour rate limits for Pro, Max, and Team plans;
  • Removing the peak hours limit reduction on Claude Code for Pro and Max plans; and
  • Substantially raising its API rate limits for Opus models.

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SpaceX also published its own release on the new agreement, noting that it is “the only organization with the launch cadence, mass-to-orbit economics, and constellation operations experience to make orbital compute a near-term engineering program rather than a research concept.”

CEO Elon Musk also commented on the partnership and shed light on intense meetings he had with senior members of Anthropic last week, stating, “nobody set on my evil detector.”

This has turned the argument that SpaceX is as much an AI company as a space exploration company into a very valid argument:

SpaceX is following in Tesla’s footsteps in a way nobody expected

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Nevertheless, this is an incredibly valuable and important move in the grand scheme of things. AI scaling is fundamentally bottlenecked by compute, and demand for Claude has surged, bringing terrestrial power grids, land, and cooling operations hitting limits everywhere.

Anthropic has been aggressively signing multiple large-scale deals to be competitive in the space, including:

  • Up to 5GW with Amazon
  • 5GW with Google and Broadcom
  • Strategic $30b Azure deal with Microsoft/NVIDIA
  • $50b U.S. infrastructure investment with Fluidstack

Access to Colossus 1 gives Anthropic immediate relief on NVIDIA GPU capacity. For SpaceXAI, it turns its rapid buildout into revenue. It also showcases its ability to deliver at world-leading speed and scale.

Most importantly, it plants the seed that its much larger vision, orbital AI compute, is totally viable.

Starlink V3 satellites could enable SpaceX’s orbital computing plans: Musk

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Within the month, Anthropic will begin using 100 percent of Colossus 1’s compute, directly expanding capacity for Claude Pro and Max subscribers and the API. This means fewer limits, faster responses, and support for heavier workloads.

In the long term, meaning 2026 and beyond, there will be a continued rollout of other multi-GW deals Anthropic has signed, and an early exploration of orbital compute with SpaceXAI.

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Tesla unveils mysterious prototype at Giga Texas: Is the Model Y L coming to America?

The Model Y L has been available in China for some time, but Americans are wondering when it will potentially come to the United States, offering a larger version of the best-selling vehicle in the world, as the Model X is officially phased out.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla unveiled a mysterious prototype, covered up between a Model Y and a Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas, perhaps giving yet another hint that the Model Y L is coming to America.

The Model Y L has been available in China for some time, but Americans are wondering when it will potentially come to the United States, offering a larger version of the best-selling vehicle in the world, as the Model X is officially phased out.

Giga Texas observer and drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer captured an image of the vehicle on May 6, showing a fully-covered prototype parked alongside a standard Model Y and a Cybertruck.

From top-down and angled views, the prototype appears nearly identical in scale to the Model Y but reveals noticeably distinct rear proportions—an elongated rear door that stretches farther over the wheel arch and rear glass that flows uninterrupted to the spoiler lip.

The side-by-side placement provides an immediate size reference. The mystery vehicle sits comfortably between the compact Model Y and the massive Cybertruck, suggesting it occupies a practical middle ground for families seeking more interior room without jumping to a full-size pickup.

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Enthusiasts quickly took to social media with guesses ranging from an extended-wheelbase Model Y to a potential station-wagon variant.

The sight of this prototype follows an earlier look at another shrouded body-in-white resting in a wooden shipping crate at the Giga Texas plant in late March.

That prototype appeared to display an elongated silhouette. Some analysis seems to show nearly exact dimensions as to what is reported for the Model Y L in the Chinese market, approximately 4.98 meters long with a 3.04-meter wheelbase, roughly seven inches longer overall than the U.S.-spec Model Y. The rear-door extension and glass-to-spoiler design were identical to the current sighting:

Tesla shows off mysterious vehicle at Giga Texas

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The Model Y L has already proven popular in China, where it launched in six- and seven-seat configurations and quickly ranked among the top-selling mid-to-large SUVs. Owners enjoy roughly 10 percent more cargo space and enhanced family versatility.

Tesla has remained silent on U.S. plans other than CEO Elon Musk saying it could come in late 2026, but localizing production at Giga Texas would make strategic sense.

With the Model X phase-out and steady Model Y output already humming along expanded lines, a longer-wheelbase variant could add tens of thousands of annual deliveries without major retooling.

The latest sighting arrives amid Tesla’s broader push to refresh its lineup. Whether this prototype represents the long-rumored Model Y L, a subtle Juniper-style update, or something entirely new remains unconfirmed.

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Yet the consistent visual cues—precise dimensional match, distinctive rear styling, and strategic placement at Giga Texas—point strongly toward an extended Model Y designed for American families who want extra space without sacrificing the Model Y’s efficiency and affordability.Tesla watchers will be monitoring future drone flights closely.

If the prototype is indeed the Model Y L, it could mark a significant expansion of the company’s best-selling vehicle and deliver the extra room many U.S. buyers have been requesting for years. For now, the blue tarp keeps its secrets—but the clues are getting harder to hide.

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Tesla Roadster gets an update, but not the one fans were looking for

Tesla has quietly filed a new trademark application for its next-generation Roadster, giving enthusiasts their first official glimpse of fresh branding for the long-teased electric supercar.

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Credit: Dan Burkland

Tesla has been slow to show its hand regarding the massive project that is the Roadster, but it is now coming forth with a new update.

However, it is probably not the one fans were looking for.

Tesla has quietly filed a new trademark application for its next-generation Roadster, giving enthusiasts their first official glimpse of fresh branding for the long-teased electric supercar.

The February 3 filing includes an inverted triangular badge with the word “ROADSTER” centered above four vertical lines that, according to the application, represent “speed, propulsion, heat, or wind.”

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A sleek, angular wordmark and a minimalist curved-line silhouette hinting at the car’s aerodynamic shape round out the trio of marks.

For a program that began with Elon Musk’s 2017 reveal, this is tangible forward motion. The original Roadster proved EVs could be thrilling; the next generation aims higher, with promises of sub-two-second 0-60 mph acceleration and, in its most extreme configuration, optional SpaceX cold-gas thrusters for rocket-like thrust.

The new trademarks suggest Tesla is now locking down the visual identity that will accompany those headline specs, as well as a small hint that maybe we’re finally getting close. However, the company has not revealed any progress on the vehicle itself or its specs to the public.

It continues to tease with developments like this one.

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That said, the update lands with a familiar bittersweet note. Fans have waited nearly a decade since the initial unveiling. Production was once eyed for 2020, then 2021, then later still. In the intervening years, Tesla has delivered the Model Y, Cybertruck, Semi, and major autonomy advances while scaling its energy business.

The Roadster has taken a back seat, and the delays have been genuinely disappointing. Many longtime supporters have grown frustrated watching renderings and hearsay while other marques roll out ever-faster electric sports cars.

Elon Musk talks Tesla Roadster’s future

Yet, the Roadster program itself still sparks genuine excitement. It represents the purest expression of Tesla’s “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” mission—pushing performance boundaries to prove EVs can outperform anything with an engine.

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The new branding, modest as it is, keeps that promise alive. It tells owners and prospective buyers that Tesla hasn’t forgotten the car that started it all.

No one would blame fans for wanting more than a logo right now. But in an industry where many concepts never leave the drawing board, the fact that Tesla continues to invest in and protect the Roadster’s identity is reason for measured optimism.

The wait has tested patience, but when the next-generation Roadster finally arrives, the new badge may well adorn one of the most exciting cars ever built. For those who have followed the journey this far, that payoff still feels worth it.

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