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Tesla and the danger of soft budget constraints

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Tesla considering factory in China

 

The Wall Street Journal is not always friendly to Elon Musk and Tesla Motors. In an article published August 16, staff writer Holman Jenkins, Jr. suggests that Tesla is one election away from extinction. Why? Holman bases his analysis on a study of John Z. DeLorean and an economic principle known as soft budget constraints.

The study by Graham Brownlow of Queen’s University Belfast was published in October, 2014. It says one of the foundations for DeLorean’s start-up car company was the willingness of the British government to subsidize the enterprise with grants, tax breaks, government backed loans, and other political incentives.

In 1975 when DeLorean Motors began, conflict between Protestants and Catholics in Ireland was at a fever pitch. The economy of Northern Ireland was in tatters and the British government was desperate to attract manufacturing jobs to the area. DeLorean promised to do just that and the government responded with open arms.

Brownlow says the support from the government amounted to what economists refer to as soft budget constraints, meaning the company never had to turn a profit. In effect, as DeLorean boasted at the time, the government was in so deep, it had no choice but to continue funding the operation. In layman’s terms, its like having rich parents and knowing they will cover your losses no matter how foolishly you spend your money.

Jenkins says Tesla Motors is similarly positioned. It is the beneficiary of several indirect government subsidies such as  federal and state tax credits, HOV stickers, and the like. He also claims the company benefits from direct government support in the form of loan guarantees and corporate tax credits. Taken together, they provide Tesla with the ability to exceed normal budgetary constraints on a regular basis.

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He prefers what he would term the more traditional model, as laid out by Brownlow. “The more [an entrepreneur] expects that the existence and growth of the firm will depend solely on production costs and proceeds from sales, the more he will respect the budget constraint,” Brownlow writes.

Jenkins hints darkly that Musk’s recent decision to bring the start of production of the Model 3 forward by 2 years is a ploy designed to force the federal government to extend the tax credit program for buyers of electric cars. Tesla will be bumping up against the 200,000 vehicle limit in total US sales by the time that car goes on sale.

He also thinks the merger between Tesla and SolarCity is intended to mute the criticism that Teslas are not as environmentally friendly as they are touted to be, since the majority of electricity in the United States comes from burning fossil fuels like natural gas and coal.

Jenkins reminds readers that John DeLorean’s dream came crashing down once Margaret Thatcher came to power. She turned off the financial spigot that had propped him up, with predictable results. The implication is that Tesla is just one election away from a similar fate.

Jenkins could be the designated cheerleader for all the people who have shorted Tesla stock. The comments appended to his story in the Journal make it clear his opinions have plenty of enthusiastic supporters, many of whom view Elon Musk as little more than a scam artist.

In his efforts to advocate for a level playing field where every corporation pays all its bills on time, pays all its taxes, never accepts a hand out from the government, and always does the right thing, he conveniently overlooks the $5 trillion a year in direct and indirect subsidies the International Monetary Fund says are provided to the fossil fuel industry every year.

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There is a coda to the DeLorean story, one that is seldom told. It is said that John Z personally selected the spot where his factory in Northern Ireland would be built. The Irish have a long and steadfast belief in what they call “the little people.” We call them leprechauns.

According to the story, the site DeLorean chose required the removal of a whitethorn tree. Now, everyone knows the little people build their homes in the roots of whitethorn trees. Uprooting one is guaranteed to bring some seriously bad mojo down on your head.

What happened to DeLorean only proves that legend may be more powerful than economic theory. The antidote to Jenkins’ gloomy predictions may be to inform Elon he must never cut down a whitethorn tree to build one of his factories.

Source: Wall Street Journal

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk shuts down talk of TSMC taking over Terafab

Musk says Tesla and SpaceX will build and run Terafab, with TSMC limited to renting.

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SpaceX Terafab rendering

Elon Musk has drawn a firm line around who will be in charge of Terafab, the giant chip factory Tesla and SpaceX are planning in Texas.

Musk replied to a post on X arguing that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) would most likely end up owning and operating the plant. “No, we will build and run the fab. Let there be ZERO doubt about that,” Musk wrote. “Maybe TSMC subleases part of the Terafab if they want, but nothing more than that.”

In plain terms, a sublease means TSMC could rent a section of the complex to make chips, similar to a tenant renting one floor of an office tower. The building, the equipment decisions and the daily operation would stay with Tesla and SpaceX.

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The comment shuts down speculation that started last week. On October 2, tech journalist Tim Culpan reported that TSMC was exploring ways to help run Terafab’s factories. Musk responded the next day that it was “just discussions, but something may come of it,” as Teslarati reported at the time. That left room for a scenario where the world’s largest contract chipmaker took the wheel. Musk’s latest post closes that door.

Elon Musk teases TSMC as potential Terafab partner

Some background helps explain why this matters. Tesla designs its own AI chips today but pays outside companies like TSMC and Samsung to manufacture them. Musk unveiled Terafab in March as a joint project between Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, arguing that existing suppliers cannot expand fast enough to meet his companies’ future demand. The goal is to produce enough chips each year to supply one terawatt of computing power, roughly 50 times what the entire global AI chip industry produces now.

Those chips are meant for Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots, the Cybercab and Full Self-Driving computers, along with chips for SpaceX’s planned data centers in orbit. Owning the factory means Musk’s companies would not have to compete with every other chip customer for time on someone else’s production lines.

Intel is still part of the picture. The company signed on in April to help design, build and package chips for the project, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan told Bloomberg this week that Intel will keep working on Terafab despite the TSMC chatter.

The project moved from concept to construction planning over the summer. In August, SpaceX confirmed the Grimes County site about an hour from Houston, sent the county a $10 million payment under its tax abatement deal and said civil work would begin shortly. The first phase carries a $16.8 billion price tag, and total spending across all phases could reach as much as $119 billion.

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TSMC chairman C.C. Wei has said a new fab typically takes two to three years to build and another one to two years to reach full output. Tesla and SpaceX have never run one, which is why TSMC’s expertise drew so much attention. Musk’s answer suggests he would rather learn that process in house than hand control of a project this central to Tesla’s robotics and autonomy plans to an outside company.

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Trump to hand Elon Musk a top honor that traces back to JFK

Trump will award Elon Musk the National Medal of Science at Thursday’s White House summit.

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elon musk and donald trump in front of a tesla cybertruck at the white house

Elon Musk is set to receive the highest honor the U.S. government gives to scientists and engineers.

President Donald Trump will present Musk with the National Medal of Science on Thursday at the White House’s Science: A New Golden Age Summit, Fox News Digital first reported on Wednesday. Google cofounder Sergey Brin, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and AMD CEO Lisa Su will receive the same medal, while Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella will receive the National Medal of Technology and Innovation. A White House official later confirmed the list to Reuters.

“The Trump administration is grateful for the contributions of these incredible leaders in science and technology. These recipients are helping ensure America keeps leading the world in innovation,” White House spokesperson Liz Huston told Fox News.

It will be the first time Trump has presented either medal in his two terms. Congress created the National Medal of Science in 1959, and the National Science Foundation, which administers it, says 529 scientists and engineers have received it since. A presidential committee reviews nominees, but the president makes the final call.

Thursday’s group of medalists run or founded companies, and three of them sit at the center of the Super Intelligence hardware race that Musk competes in. Huang’s Nvidia supplies the GB300 chips filling SpaceX’s Colossus 2 cluster, while Su’s AMD is Nvidia’s biggest rival in data center GPUs.

Worth noting that Trump’s uncle, MIT physicist John G. Trump, received the National Medal of Science from President Ronald Reagan for his work on ionizing radiation and its uses in medicine and industry.

The Pentagon taps Elon Musk to design the battlefield of the future

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For Musk, the medal is the latest sign of how far his relationship with Trump has come since their 2025 split over the “Big Beautiful Bill” and his exit from DOGE. Last week, he sat at Trump’s left during a White House lunch where AI executives signed a voluntary safety accord, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth named him to help lead the Pentagon’s Project Meridian study on the future of warfare. Musk has also adopted the administration’s new vocabulary, saying on Sunday that SpaceXAI will be renamed SpaceXSI after Trump ordered federal agencies to replace “artificial intelligence” with “super intelligence.”

Musk has collected science honors before, including the Stephen Hawking Medal for Science Communication in 2019.

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Tesla FSD changed its mind mid-intersection, and it may have saved a life

Tesla shares dashcam footage of FSD Supervised stopping mid intersection to avoid a T-bone crash.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3/X

Tesla is putting another Full Self-Driving save in front of its 24.8 million followers on X.

On Tuesday morning, Tesla’s main account shared a dashcam clip with the caption “FSD Supervised preventing T-bone crash.” The footage came from an owner posting as TheNewGrid, who described what happened at a stop sign: “I looked at the car coming to the stop sign figured they would stop, my car went, then came to a stop mid intersection as they flew by. Had I been manually driving this would have resulted in a crash.”

The sequence is the notable part. FSD had already started crossing when the other driver ran the stop sign. Instead of pressing on, the car braked hard in the middle of the intersection and let the crossing vehicle pass in front of it. By the owner’s own account, they had made the same assumption the software initially made, that the other car would stop, and would not have corrected in time.

The clip is the latest in a run of safety posts Tesla has amplified over the past several days. On Saturday, the company shared a video from Selling Sunset star Jason Oppenheim, who sold his Bentley for a Model Y and said he was buying Teslas with FSD for 10 of his employees. Ashok Elluswamy, who leads Tesla AI, followed up by writing that Tesla self-driving “reacts to other people cutting into your path with super-human response times.” On Monday, a Cybertruck owner posted footage of FSD moving across three lanes from a red light to clear a path for an ambulance approaching from behind.

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This recent clip also lands a few weeks after Tesla began shipping Automatic Collision Evasion with FSD v14.3.9, a feature that can activate FSD on the driver’s behalf when a frontal collision is imminent or the driver appears distracted. Elluswamy said in September that “even earlier prediction of hazards, even faster reaction time and overall significantly better safety and collision avoidance” are coming with v15, the release Tesla has tied to round the clock Robotaxi operation.

The safety messaging matters beyond social media. Tesla has said FSD Supervised was 4.1 times less likely to crash than manual driving across 100 million kilometers on European roads, and it has been putting those figures in front of regulators. Eight EU countries have now approved FSD Supervised, with Croatia the most recent, but the EU’s bloc-wide vote originally set for October 6 has been pushed to December at the earliest.

FSD Supervised is still a Level 2 system, and the driver remains responsible at all times. Even heavy users find reasons to step in. Teslarati’s Joey Klender, who uses FSD for about 76 percent of his driving, laid out five recurring issues on Tuesday that still prompt him to intervene. Clips like this one show the other column of that ledger: moments where the software caught a mistake a human was about to make.

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