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Tesla and the danger of soft budget constraints

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Tesla considering factory in China

 

The Wall Street Journal is not always friendly to Elon Musk and Tesla Motors. In an article published August 16, staff writer Holman Jenkins, Jr. suggests that Tesla is one election away from extinction. Why? Holman bases his analysis on a study of John Z. DeLorean and an economic principle known as soft budget constraints.

The study by Graham Brownlow of Queen’s University Belfast was published in October, 2014. It says one of the foundations for DeLorean’s start-up car company was the willingness of the British government to subsidize the enterprise with grants, tax breaks, government backed loans, and other political incentives.

In 1975 when DeLorean Motors began, conflict between Protestants and Catholics in Ireland was at a fever pitch. The economy of Northern Ireland was in tatters and the British government was desperate to attract manufacturing jobs to the area. DeLorean promised to do just that and the government responded with open arms.

Brownlow says the support from the government amounted to what economists refer to as soft budget constraints, meaning the company never had to turn a profit. In effect, as DeLorean boasted at the time, the government was in so deep, it had no choice but to continue funding the operation. In layman’s terms, its like having rich parents and knowing they will cover your losses no matter how foolishly you spend your money.

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Jenkins says Tesla Motors is similarly positioned. It is the beneficiary of several indirect government subsidies such as  federal and state tax credits, HOV stickers, and the like. He also claims the company benefits from direct government support in the form of loan guarantees and corporate tax credits. Taken together, they provide Tesla with the ability to exceed normal budgetary constraints on a regular basis.

He prefers what he would term the more traditional model, as laid out by Brownlow. “The more [an entrepreneur] expects that the existence and growth of the firm will depend solely on production costs and proceeds from sales, the more he will respect the budget constraint,” Brownlow writes.

Jenkins hints darkly that Musk’s recent decision to bring the start of production of the Model 3 forward by 2 years is a ploy designed to force the federal government to extend the tax credit program for buyers of electric cars. Tesla will be bumping up against the 200,000 vehicle limit in total US sales by the time that car goes on sale.

He also thinks the merger between Tesla and SolarCity is intended to mute the criticism that Teslas are not as environmentally friendly as they are touted to be, since the majority of electricity in the United States comes from burning fossil fuels like natural gas and coal.

Jenkins reminds readers that John DeLorean’s dream came crashing down once Margaret Thatcher came to power. She turned off the financial spigot that had propped him up, with predictable results. The implication is that Tesla is just one election away from a similar fate.

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Jenkins could be the designated cheerleader for all the people who have shorted Tesla stock. The comments appended to his story in the Journal make it clear his opinions have plenty of enthusiastic supporters, many of whom view Elon Musk as little more than a scam artist.

In his efforts to advocate for a level playing field where every corporation pays all its bills on time, pays all its taxes, never accepts a hand out from the government, and always does the right thing, he conveniently overlooks the $5 trillion a year in direct and indirect subsidies the International Monetary Fund says are provided to the fossil fuel industry every year.

There is a coda to the DeLorean story, one that is seldom told. It is said that John Z personally selected the spot where his factory in Northern Ireland would be built. The Irish have a long and steadfast belief in what they call “the little people.” We call them leprechauns.

According to the story, the site DeLorean chose required the removal of a whitethorn tree. Now, everyone knows the little people build their homes in the roots of whitethorn trees. Uprooting one is guaranteed to bring some seriously bad mojo down on your head.

What happened to DeLorean only proves that legend may be more powerful than economic theory. The antidote to Jenkins’ gloomy predictions may be to inform Elon he must never cut down a whitethorn tree to build one of his factories.

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Source: Wall Street Journal

Elon Musk

Tesla board reveals reasoning for CEO Elon Musk’s new $1 trillion pay package

“Yes, you read that correctly: in 2018, Elon had to grow Tesla by billions; in 2025, he has to grow Tesla by trillions — to be exact, he must create nearly $7.5 trillion in value for shareholders for him to receive the full award.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla’s Board of Directors has proposed a new pay package for company CEO Elon Musk that would result in $1 trillion in stock offerings if he is able to meet several lofty performance targets.

Musk, who has not been meaningfully compensated since 2017, completed his last pay package by delivering billions in shareholder value through a variety of performance-based “tranches,” which were met and resulted in the award of billions in stock.

Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation

However, Musk was unable to claim this award due to a ruling by the Delaware Chancery Court, which deemed the payout an “unfathomable sum.”

Now, the company is taking steps to ensure Musk gets paid, as the Board feels that it is crucial to retain its CEO, who has been responsible for much of the company’s success.

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This is not a statement to undermine the work of all of Tesla’s terrific employees, but a ship needs to be captained by someone, and Musk has proven he is the right person for the job.

The Board also believes that, based on a statement made by the company in its proxy, various issues will be discussed during the upcoming Shareholder Meeting.

Robyn Denholm and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson recognized Musk’s contributions in a statement, which encouraged shareholders to vote to approve the payout:

“We’re asking you to approve the 2025 CEO Performance Award. In designing the new performance award, we explored numerous alternatives. Ultimately, the new award aims to build upon the success of the 2018 CEO Performance Award framework, which ensure that Elon was only paid for the performance delivered and incentivized to guide Tesla through a period of meteoric growth. The 2025 CEO Performance Award similarly challegnes Elon to again meet a series of even more aspirational goals, including operational milestones focused on reaching Adjusted EBITDA targets (thresholds that are up to 28 times higher than the 2108 CEO Performance Award’s top Adjusted EBITDA milestone) and rolling out new or expanded product offerings (including 1 million Robotaxis in commercial operation and delivery of 1 million AI Bots), all while growing the company’s market capitalization by trillions of dollars.

Yes, you read that correctly: in 2018, Elon had to grow Tesla by billions; in 2025, he has to grow Tesla by trillions — to be exact, he must create nearly $7.5 trillion in value for shareholders for him to receive the full award.

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In addition to these unprecedented performance milestones, the 2025 CEO Performance Award also includes innovative structural features, born out of the special committee’s considered analysis and extensive shareholder feedback. These features include supercharged retention (at least seven and a half years and up to 10 years to vest in the full award), structural protections to minimize stock price volatility due to administration of this award and, thereafter, incentives for Elon to participate in the Board’s continued development of a framework for long-term CEO Succession. If Elon achieves all the performance milestones under this principle-based 2025 CEO Performance Award, his leadership will propel Tesla to become the most valuable company in history.”

Musk will have a lot of things to accomplish to receive the 423,743,904 shares, which are divided into 12 tranches.

However, the Board feels he is the right person for the job, and they want him to remain the CEO. This package should ensure that he stays with Tesla, as long as shareholders feel the same way.

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Tesla Robotaxi app download rate demolishes Uber, Waymo all-time highs

After two and a half months of testing with a group of hand-picked Tesla influencers and some media, the company has officially launched Robotaxi rides in both Austin, Texas, and the California Bay Area to the public.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3 | X

Tesla launched its Robotaxi app to the general public yesterday, and the number of downloads is a testament to the platform’s high demand for testing.

After two and a half months of testing with a group of hand-picked Tesla influencers and some media, the company has officially launched Robotaxi rides in both Austin, Texas, and the California Bay Area to the public.

Tesla Robotaxi makes major expansion with official public app launch

Downloading the app is available to iOS users, so if you have an iPhone, you can get it and join the waitlist. Tesla has not yet launched the Robotaxi app for the Android platform, but did hint that it would be coming soon.

The testing phase with the group Tesla selected has gone well. In Austin, the City has only listed one “Safety Concern” with Robotaxi during the testing phase. For the most part, things have gone extremely well, and riders have had good things to say.

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Tesla is still operating with some safeguards in place, such as Safety Monitors and Safety Drivers, but these are precautionary and temporary; CEO Elon Musk has said they should be removed by the end of the year.

Elon Musk says Tesla will take Safety Drivers out of Robotaxi: here’s when

Even still, Tesla Robotaxi is something that many people want to experience, and the app downloads prove it.

The Tesla Robotaxi app was downloaded at a rate that exceeded all rolling 30-day periods of both Uber and Waymo, according to Brett Winton of ARK Invest. Tesla’s Robotaxi’s first day on the App Store exceeded Uber’s by 40 percent and Waymo’s best download day ever by six times:

The surge in downloads is a good indication of how in demand the Robotaxi suite was, as many people within the community had vocalized their requests to try the platform, but Tesla was not ready to expand it beyond its handpicked group.

The expansion of the program will result in more rides, provided Tesla continues to expand its fleet of vehicles. It has already admitted many of those who were initially placed on the waitlist.

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Elon Musk’s xAI expands to Seattle with salaries up to $440,000

The move was announced by the artificial intelligence startup and Elon Musk on social media platform X.

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(Credit: xAI)

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI is opening a new office in Seattle as it accelerates its global expansion. 

The move was announced by the artificial intelligence startup and Elon Musk on social media platform X. xAI is also hiring for its first positions in the new site.

New Seattle office

As could be seen on xAI’s Careers webpage, the Seattle office is currently hiring for three engineering roles. Each of the three technical roles tied to the new site carry salaries ranging from $180,000 to $440,000. 

The new office adds to xAI’s growing presence, which now spans San Francisco, Austin, London, Dublin, New York, and Memphis. The Seattle-based roles focus on video and image generation systems, signaling Musk’s intent to challenge rivals like OpenAI and Meta in generative AI.

Pressures and challenges

Seattle also places xAI within reach of Microsoft’s headquarters in Redmond. Microsoft has emerged as a central player in the AI race through its multibillion-dollar partnership with OpenAI, making xAI’s move into the region notable. The competition for AI specialists has pushed salaries higher across the industry, with filings showing OpenAI staff earning up to $530,000 and Anthropic engineers as much as $690,000 annually, as noted by Insider.

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The startup has also seen some high-profile departures in recent months, including cofounder Igor Babuschkin and general counsel Robert Keele. Still, xAI continues to grow aggressively, and its Grok large language model has been gaining momentum among mainstream users. Work also continues to be underway to further build out the company’s Colossus supercomputer cluster. Reports have also suggested that xAI has moved into San Francisco offices in the Mission District, a site Musk initially leased during OpenAI’s early years.

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