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Tesla and the danger of soft budget constraints

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Tesla considering factory in China

 

The Wall Street Journal is not always friendly to Elon Musk and Tesla Motors. In an article published August 16, staff writer Holman Jenkins, Jr. suggests that Tesla is one election away from extinction. Why? Holman bases his analysis on a study of John Z. DeLorean and an economic principle known as soft budget constraints.

The study by Graham Brownlow of Queen’s University Belfast was published in October, 2014. It says one of the foundations for DeLorean’s start-up car company was the willingness of the British government to subsidize the enterprise with grants, tax breaks, government backed loans, and other political incentives.

In 1975 when DeLorean Motors began, conflict between Protestants and Catholics in Ireland was at a fever pitch. The economy of Northern Ireland was in tatters and the British government was desperate to attract manufacturing jobs to the area. DeLorean promised to do just that and the government responded with open arms.

Brownlow says the support from the government amounted to what economists refer to as soft budget constraints, meaning the company never had to turn a profit. In effect, as DeLorean boasted at the time, the government was in so deep, it had no choice but to continue funding the operation. In layman’s terms, its like having rich parents and knowing they will cover your losses no matter how foolishly you spend your money.

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Jenkins says Tesla Motors is similarly positioned. It is the beneficiary of several indirect government subsidies such as  federal and state tax credits, HOV stickers, and the like. He also claims the company benefits from direct government support in the form of loan guarantees and corporate tax credits. Taken together, they provide Tesla with the ability to exceed normal budgetary constraints on a regular basis.

He prefers what he would term the more traditional model, as laid out by Brownlow. “The more [an entrepreneur] expects that the existence and growth of the firm will depend solely on production costs and proceeds from sales, the more he will respect the budget constraint,” Brownlow writes.

Jenkins hints darkly that Musk’s recent decision to bring the start of production of the Model 3 forward by 2 years is a ploy designed to force the federal government to extend the tax credit program for buyers of electric cars. Tesla will be bumping up against the 200,000 vehicle limit in total US sales by the time that car goes on sale.

He also thinks the merger between Tesla and SolarCity is intended to mute the criticism that Teslas are not as environmentally friendly as they are touted to be, since the majority of electricity in the United States comes from burning fossil fuels like natural gas and coal.

Jenkins reminds readers that John DeLorean’s dream came crashing down once Margaret Thatcher came to power. She turned off the financial spigot that had propped him up, with predictable results. The implication is that Tesla is just one election away from a similar fate.

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Jenkins could be the designated cheerleader for all the people who have shorted Tesla stock. The comments appended to his story in the Journal make it clear his opinions have plenty of enthusiastic supporters, many of whom view Elon Musk as little more than a scam artist.

In his efforts to advocate for a level playing field where every corporation pays all its bills on time, pays all its taxes, never accepts a hand out from the government, and always does the right thing, he conveniently overlooks the $5 trillion a year in direct and indirect subsidies the International Monetary Fund says are provided to the fossil fuel industry every year.

There is a coda to the DeLorean story, one that is seldom told. It is said that John Z personally selected the spot where his factory in Northern Ireland would be built. The Irish have a long and steadfast belief in what they call “the little people.” We call them leprechauns.

According to the story, the site DeLorean chose required the removal of a whitethorn tree. Now, everyone knows the little people build their homes in the roots of whitethorn trees. Uprooting one is guaranteed to bring some seriously bad mojo down on your head.

What happened to DeLorean only proves that legend may be more powerful than economic theory. The antidote to Jenkins’ gloomy predictions may be to inform Elon he must never cut down a whitethorn tree to build one of his factories.

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Source: Wall Street Journal

Investor's Corner

Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders

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Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.

Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric

Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post. 

“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”

Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.

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Musk’s ambitious pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.

Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.

So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.

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Starlink V3 satellites could enable SpaceX’s orbital computing plans: Musk

Musk’s remarks come as companies explore how orbital infrastructure could solve the Earth-bound energy and cooling challenges that come with hyperscale AI computing.

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(Credit: SpaceX)

As artificial intelligence fuels surging demand for computing power, Elon Musk has hinted that SpaceX may use its Starlink V3 satellites to develop space-based data centers. 

Musk’s remarks come as companies explore how orbital infrastructure could solve the Earth-bound energy and cooling challenges that come with hyperscale AI computing.

SpaceX could lead the race to orbit-based computing

After Ars Technica published a report on autonomous space construction, Musk replied on X: “Simply scaling up Starlink V3 satellites, which have high speed laser links would work. SpaceX will be doing this.” 

SpaceX’s Starlink V3 platform is capable of up to 1 terabit per second (Tbps) throughput, so it could potentially form the foundation for orbital computing clusters powered by solar energy. 

Proponents have noted that such data centers could eliminate the massive land, water, and power footprints of traditional facilities on Earth. Critics, however, have question the economics and complexity of maintaining large-scale data systems in orbit.

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Elon Musk, for his part, recently reiterated on X that this particular idea is a very big deal. 

SpaceX’s track record is substantial

Despite the reservations for such a radical idea, SpaceX’s track record is pretty much bulletproof at this point. The company’s Starlink network, once deemed as unrealistic by critics, now delivers broadband to millions worldwide while turning a profit. Its Falcon 9 rockets, which are capable of landing on land or on a drone in the middle of the ocean, are also among the world’s most reliable. 

With this track record in mind, it would seem that Elon Musk’s idea of using Starlink satellites as the building blocks for a space-based data center might not be too farfetched at all.

Interest in space-based data storage and processing has intensified in recent months, Ars noted. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt reportedly acquired Relativity Space with an eye on orbital data infrastructure, while Jeff Bezos recently predicted gigawatt-scale data centers will operate in space within two decades.

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Tesla Model Y L gains V2L capabilities with software update

The 2025.32.300 update, which is rolling out to Model Y L vehicles in China, introduces several notable additions.

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Tesla has quietly added Vehicle-to-Load (V2L) functionality to the Model Y L through its latest over-the-air update in China, giving owners the ability to power external devices directly from their EVs.

The addition of the feature was highlighted by Tesla in its release notes for China’s 2025.32.300 update.

Model Y L gains V2L and other convenience upgrades

The 2025.32.300 update, which is rolling out to Model Y L vehicles in China, introduces several notable additions. First among them is an “external discharge function,” which enables V2L capability through an official adapter that Tesla plans to release later.

The feature should enable the Model Y L to power appliances, tools, or possibly even other EVs, making it extra useful for camping trips or the occasional power outages. 

Other improvements include a lower temperature limit for Dog Mode, customizable low-battery settings to conserve energy while parked, and expanded personalization for the vehicle’s “Rave Cave” entertainment feature. Tesla noted that certain functions may vary depending on vehicle configuration, and rollout timing could differ by region.

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Model Y L is surging in China’s SUV rankings

Despite being new in the market, the Model Y L is already making some waves in  China’s top-selling mid-to-large SUVs lists. Data from Yiche showed that Tesla sold 8,221 units in September, securing fourth place in the segment behind the Leapmotor C16, Li Auto L6, and the Xiaomi YU7.

The Model Y L’s rapid ascent highlighted its strong market appeal despite a higher price point than most local competitors. Interestingly enough, the Xiaomi YU7, which is positioned closer to the standard Model Y with its five-seat configuration, topped the rankings with 22,244 units sold in September.

With Tesla’s continued free software upgrades, as well as its features like Full Self-Driving (Supervised), however, the Model Y L may have a chance at climbing China’s lists for the best-selling mid-to-large SUVs.

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