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Tesla poised to disrupt the entire transportation industry, not just auto

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The following post was originally published on EVANNEX

With Tesla’s first quarter earnings call coming on Wednesday, it’s critical to maintain some perspective. There’s one prescient Wall Street analyst who has a history of predicting Tesla’s future while providing some much-needed perspective. Morgan Stanley Auto and Mobility Analyst Adam Jonas was a Tesla [NASDAQ: TSLA] bull before there was anything you could call a herd. Way back in 2013, when TSLA stock first started soaring, and the company announced that it would pay back its DOE loan several years early, Jonas called the company “our new top pick in US autos.”

Jonas hasn’t always been sure about Tesla though. In 2014, the stock dipped and Jonas waxed more skeptical. In early 2015, with Model X in development and construction beginning on the Gigafactory, Jonas wrote that Tesla has just pushed the “insane button” (in a good way, presumably). “Seems Tesla is preparing to be a much larger company than we have forecast.” A few months later, after Elon Musk evaded a question about the possibility of a Tesla ride-sharing service, Jonas predicted the coming of the Tesla Network, a year before it was formally announced, and speculated that the potential profits could cause the stock price to double (it hasn’t yet – TSLA was around 230 at the time).

In a recent interview (video starts at 17 minutes, 11 seconds, see below) with Business Insider’s Matthew DeBord, Jonas talks about Tesla’s “insane” market capitalization, how other automakers see the upstart company, and Tesla’s future place in the transportation realm.

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No, TSLA’s meteoric rise isn’t a hallucination or a case of mass insanity. After all, market disruption isn’t exactly a new thing. “We saw it with Cornelius Vanderbilt and the railroads,” says Jonas. “We saw it with Thomas Edison and the electric utility grid. There were times when people thought men like these were crazy. Henry Ford’s bankers were pretty furious at the risk he was taking with the moving assembly line. But they did it. And once in a while, these things pay off. Elon Musk is in that genre of capitalist/scientist/storyteller.”

What do the men (and one woman) in the corner offices feel about Tesla and Musk? Scorn, respect, fear? “When we engage with auto companies around the world, they admit that that car that [Tesla has] developed is a good car – it’s not a fluke,” says Jonas. “The industry has a reputation of being arrogant. ‘Our cars are the best!’ Even these types of companies say, ‘we’re glad that Tesla is around in many ways.’” The mood includes “more respect than fear, but some concern.”

How much in the way of future sales are baked into TSLA’s sky-high stock price? A lot. To justify its new status as one of the world’s largest automakers by market cap (see chart below), Tesla would have to reach “something approaching a BMW type of scale of a couple million units a year at some point…an order of magnitude higher than what they’ve been doing… and to be making money doing that.”

However, the future isn’t all about the volume of auto sales. Tesla envisions an entire new transportation ecosystem, one that incorporates vehicle autonomy, ride-sharing and distributed renewable energy. “The sooner the market can start to view Tesla as something other than just selling machines for people to own privately and operate in some automated form themselves… the more the events of the next few years are going to make sense,” says Jonas. “We see Tesla as disrupting transportation, not just the automotive industry.”

 

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

https://twitter.com/AIStockSavvy/status/1975893527344345556

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025. 

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.

On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report. 

“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.

A bright spot in Tesla Energy

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.

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“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated. 

Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.

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Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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