Investor's Corner
Tesla Doubles Down on Demand Generation
A couple of weeks ago, Tesla Motors unveiled the mobile, “pop-up” concept store in Santa Barbara in hopes to deliver product knowledge and buzz to the public for its electric, Model S cars. According to Green Car Reports, Tesla’s pop-up concept is stationed in Santa Barbara for one month, before heading to its East Coast summer destination, the Hamptons on Long Island, NY.
Tesla Motors pop-up store in Santa Barbara, CA [Source: Tesla Motors]
The pop-up announcement came late in the week, right before the long holiday weekend and I thought it was a bit odd for Tesla, considering such a novel marketing play. Why so quiet?
The answer could be that Model S demand may be soft for 2015, especially with recent posts on Tesla’s site showing a hefty amount of scheduled test drives, and a new wrinkle – partnerships with destination charging hotels. Solid marketing moves, but it seems Tesla is playing down its marketing efforts.
Of course, Tesla’s Fremont production facility may be hitting its stride this year with the Model S, but Musk may want a production hedge with the Model X. Musk hinted that by Q4 2015 they could have a steep ramp of Model X deliveries of 1,000 per week, but Musk is known for over-promising and missing deadlines with SpaceX, Telsa, etc…
From the Q1 earnings call:
Musk: I mean, actually with Model X production ramping up quite heavily in Q4 depending upon how that ramp goes and obviously it’s difficult to predict that with perfect clarity, but our volume essentially doubles in Q4.
Musk: For the S, we had quite a long ramp from–we’re like six months from the very first deliveries to a significant volume. We’re trying to compress that to maybe like two months or three months at most….Once we start delivering cars en masse, because we’re going to go from a small number of cars to like 1,000 a week pretty fast.
As documented on Teslarati, hotel destination charging partners have been working with Tesla Motors to install Tesla’s high-powered charging units at various hotels for the last year in the U.S., Europe and China. So the new wrinkle is partnerships with hotel destination properties and regular hotels for numerous Model S test drives this summer.
Here’s an interesting passage from a Pennsylvania media outlet covering a recent hotel test drive:
…But not until the California-based car manufacturer and Normandy Farm Hotel in Blue Bell partnered up did he (test driver) make any serious inroads into possibly buying one. First step, of course, was the Wednesday morning test drive, hosted by Normandy Farm.
“I put (a test drive) off because I knew I’d love the car,” said Corbett “But I’m absolutely satisfied with it. If I had the cash I would have had one already. It’s something I would budget for to make happen. It’s that impressive.”
The company is taking the product out on the road. Other upcoming hotel events include the rolling hills of Sonoma County at the Best Western Inn, which has three Chargepoint charging stations in Healdsburg, Calif.
So Model S demand may be lacking in China and other parts, but it looks like the Tesla marketing machine will be busy this summer.
*Author’s note: The Elon Musk biography is a must-read!
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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