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Elon Musk’s 10-year Tesla market cap target is 91% complete-after just 3 years

(Credit: elon.ai)

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Back in 2018, Elon Musk and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) proposed a compensation plan that was just about as insane as the vehicles that the company produces. Dubbed as one of the most radical CEO payment plans in corporate history, it required Musk to hit a series of market cap and operational targets before he is compensated. If he succeeds, he is paid heartily, making him one of the wealthiest persons in the world by net worth. If he fails, he gets nothing. 

“If all that happens over the next ten years is that Tesla’s value grows by 80 or 90%, then my amount of compensation would be zero,” Elon Musk said, describing his payment plan to The New York Times.

Elon Musk’s 10-year Performance Award. (Credit: Tesla)

A dozen Market cap targets were set, each $50 billion more than the next, starting at $100 billion and so on. Revenue and adjusted profit goals were also established. For each tranche that is achieved, Elon Musk would have the option to purchase about 1% of Tesla stock at $70 per share. Considering that Tesla’s market cap only stood at $59 billion then, the ambitious compensation plan was dubbed as laughably impossible by critics.

“Mr. Musk’s critics — and there are many — are likely to contend that the new compensation plan is just the company’s latest publicity stunt. He has been called a modern-day P.T. Barnum who has created the illusion of success while consistently missing production estimates. The company continues to lose money; at one point last year, it was losing almost a half-million dollars an hour… Jim Chanos, a short-seller who has bet against Tesla’s shares — and has thus far been on the losing side of that trade — has contended that Tesla is worthless,” the NYT wrote then. 

That was just over three years ago. 

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In a securities filing last Friday, Tesla noted that Elon Musk had achieved 6 of his 12 operating targets, and two more were probable soon. A good number of these targets reflected an adjusted version of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Two others represented revenue targets. As noted in a report from The Wall Street Journal, Tesla had also reached 11 of Elon Musk’s 12 market cap targets.

Credit: PCAuto.com

This is incredibly impressive considering that Musk’s 10-year performance award is only in its third year. The long-term plan was designed for a 10-year period, and even Musk, in a statement to the NYT, spoke of a decade-long timeframe when he described his performance award. “I actually see the potential for Tesla to become a trillion-dollar company within a 10-year period,” he said. 

While his net worth will radically increase due to his Tesla performance award, Musk could not simply sell his shares and disappear. Under the terms of his payment arrangement, even once his TSLA shares vest, Musk would have to hold them for an additional five years before he is even allowed to sell them. And as per Elon Musk’s previous statements, this is something that he does not intend to do. 

Musk’s 10-year Tesla performance award is arguably one of the most shareholder-friendly executive payment plans in the market. Other companies typically install outsize packages that often come at the expense of shareholders because executives are compensated even if they underperform. Tesla’s all-or-nothing plan for Elon Musk, on the other hand, greatly benefits shareholders as their holdings will increase in value as Tesla hits its market cap goals. This is great for long-term shareholders who hold the stock, as well as Tesla employees, as they receive TSLA shares when they are employed by the company. 

At the end of December, Elon Musk owned about 22.4% of TSLA’s outstanding shares, up from 20.8% a year earlier. Tesla also has a market cap of $683.42 billion as of Friday’s close. 

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Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla just tipped its hand on a major Cybercab feature as production hits Plaid Mode

Tesla has delivered a clear signal that its Robotaxi ambitions are shifting into high gear. On April 17, longtime factory observer and drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer captured drone footage and still images showing approximately 14 freshly built Cybercabs parked in the outbound lot—each one conspicuously lacking a steering wheel.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla just tipped its hand on a major Cybercab feature as it is putting production into Plaid Mode, but a clear indication of what the company plans to do with the vehicle is now apparent.

Tesla has delivered a clear signal that its Robotaxi ambitions are shifting into high gear, and it’s doing it with full autonomy in mind.

On April 17, longtime factory observer and drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer captured drone footage and still images showing approximately 14 newly built Cybercabs parked in the outbound lot, each conspicuously lacking a steering wheel, and potentially pedals.

Tegtmeyer’s post highlighted the significance of this development: The images and video reveal sleek, two-seat Cybercabs in their final production form: no driver controls, no side mirrors, and the minimalist interior first unveiled at Tesla’s “We Robot” event in October 2024.

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These units contrast with earlier test vehicles spotted at the factory’s crash-test area, which carried temporary steering wheels and pedals to meet current federal regulations during data-collection phases.

The outbound-lot vehicles appear complete, with production wheels, tire stickers, and the signature Cybercab styling ready for deployment.

This sighting represents a pivotal transition. Tesla designed the Cybercab from the ground up as a purpose-built robotaxi, engineered for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) operation. Removing manual controls eliminates cost, complexity, and weight while maximizing interior space and range.

The move also signals that Tesla has cleared initial validation hurdles and is now building vehicles to the exact specification intended for commercial robotaxi service.

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Industry watchers note the timing aligns with Tesla’s broader rollout plans. Production of early Cybercabs began in late 2025 and early 2026, primarily for internal testing and regulatory compliance.

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards currently limit vehicles without steering wheels to 2,500 units per year without exemption, a cap that Tesla is navigating through ongoing filings.

Tesla Cybercab spotted next to Model Y shows size comparison

The appearance of steering-wheel-free units in the outbound lot suggests the company is preparing a small initial fleet—likely for Austin pilot operations or further validation—while pushing for regulatory relief to scale output.

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The development comes as Tesla ramps its dedicated Cybercab line at Gigafactory Texas. If the Monday surge materializes as predicted, observers expect dozens more units to accumulate rapidly.

With unsupervised FSD advancing and regulatory conversations ongoing, these wheel-less Cybercabs parked under the Texas sun represent more than hardware—they embody Tesla’s bet that autonomous mobility is no longer a prototype dream but an imminent reality.

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Tesla preps new Model Y trim for India, a once-elusive market

Tesla’s journey into India began with significant hurdles. For years, the electric vehicle giant faced steep import tariffs ranging from 70 percent to 110 percent on fully built vehicles, which dramatically inflated prices and stalled entry plans.

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Tesla is preparing to bring its newest Model Y trim to India, a once-elusive market that was hesitant to allow any vehicles built outside the market into its automotive sector.

Now, it is preparing to allow China-built Model Y vehicles to come into the country, in an effort to expand sales and offer what is a widely-requested variant to Indian customers.

Tesla’s journey into India began with significant hurdles. For years, the electric vehicle giant faced steep import tariffs ranging from 70 percent to 110 percent on fully built vehicles, which dramatically inflated prices and stalled entry plans.

Elon Musk repeatedly criticized these duties as among the world’s highest, making premium EVs like the Model Y prohibitively expensive for most buyers in the price-sensitive market.

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After prolonged negotiations and multiple delays, Tesla finally debuted in July 2025 with a quiet rollout focused on luxury segments. It opened showrooms in Mumbai and New Delhi, importing standard Model Y SUVs from its Shanghai Gigafactory.

Tesla China posts strong February wholesale growth at Gigafactory Shanghai

Yet the launch proved challenging: vehicles carried sticker prices near $70,000, leading to tepid demand. Bloomberg reported only about 600 orders in the first two months, while official data showed just 227 registrations for all of 2025—far below internal targets. By early 2026, the company offered discounts of up to ₹200,000 ($2,200) to clear unsold inventory.

Now, less than a year later, Tesla is demonstrating resilience and adaptability. According to a Bloomberg report on April 17, the company is preparing to launch the Model Y L—a six-seat, long-wheelbase variant with three-row seating—as early as next week.

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This marks Tesla’s first new product introduction in India since its initial entry. Notably, the newest Model Y configuration, which debuted in China in 2025 and features extended space tailored for families, will once again be exported directly from Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory.

The move highlights a shift from early struggles to a more targeted approach, leveraging an existing platform to better suit Indian preferences for multi-generational, spacious SUVs without committing to immediate local production.

Tesla launches in India with Model Y, showing pricing will be biggest challenge

The Model Y L’s arrival underscores Tesla’s incremental strategy amid global EV headwinds and India’s unique challenges, including limited charging infrastructure and competition from local manufacturers.

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While tariffs continue to keep pricing in the premium segment, the six-seater variant aims to broaden appeal beyond early luxury adopters by addressing practical family needs.

This evolution, from battling high barriers and disappointing initial sales to exporting its latest derivative model, signals cautious optimism.

Success with the Model Y L could strengthen Tesla’s foothold in one of the world’s most populous markets and potentially pave the way for deeper investments, such as localized manufacturing, should tariff relief or policy shifts materialize.

For now, the China-to-India supply chain represents a pragmatic bridge over the very obstacles that once made entry so difficult.

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Tesla’s golden era is no longer a tagline

Tesla “golden era” teaser video highlights the future of transportation and why car ownership itself may be the next thing to change.

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Tesla Cybercab Golden Era is Here (Credit: Tesla)
Tesla Cybercab Golden Era is Here (Credit: Tesla)

The golden age of autonomous ridesharing is arriving, and Tesla is making sure we can all picture a future that looks like the future. A recent teaser posted to X shows a Cybercab parked outside a home, and with a clear message that your everyday life may soon look like this when the driverless vehicles shows up at your door.

Tesla has begun the rollout of its Robotaxi service across US cities, and the production of its dedicated, fully-autonomous Cybercab vehicle. The first Cybercab rolled off the Giga Texas assembly line on February 17, 2026, with volume production now targeted for this month. Additionally, the Robotaxi service built around it is already running, without human drivers, in US cities.

Tesla Cybercab production ignites with 60 units spotted at Giga Texas

The Cybercab is built without a steering wheel, pedals, or side mirrors, designed from the ground up for unsupervised autonomous operation. Musk described the manufacturing approach as closer to consumer electronics than traditional car production, targeting a cycle time of one unit every ten seconds at full scale.

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Drone footage from April 13, 2026 captured over 50 Cybercab units on the Giga Texas campus, with several clustered near the crash testing facility. Musk has noted that Tesla plans to sell the Cybercab to consumers for under $30,000, and owners will be able to add their vehicles to the Tesla robotaxi network when not in personal use, potentially generating income to offset the vehicle’s purchase cost. That model changes the math on vehicle ownership in a meaningful way, making a car something closer to a depreciating asset that can also earn by paying itself off and generate a profit.

During Tesla’s Q4 earnings call, the company confirmed plans to expand the Robotaxi program to seven new cities in the first half of 2026, including Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas. The service already runs without safety drivers in Austin, and public road testing of the Cybercab has expanded to five states, including California, Texas, New York, Illinois, and Massachusetts.

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