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Elon Musk’s 10-year Tesla market cap target is 91% complete-after just 3 years

(Credit: elon.ai)

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Back in 2018, Elon Musk and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) proposed a compensation plan that was just about as insane as the vehicles that the company produces. Dubbed as one of the most radical CEO payment plans in corporate history, it required Musk to hit a series of market cap and operational targets before he is compensated. If he succeeds, he is paid heartily, making him one of the wealthiest persons in the world by net worth. If he fails, he gets nothing. 

“If all that happens over the next ten years is that Tesla’s value grows by 80 or 90%, then my amount of compensation would be zero,” Elon Musk said, describing his payment plan to The New York Times.

Elon Musk’s 10-year Performance Award. (Credit: Tesla)

A dozen Market cap targets were set, each $50 billion more than the next, starting at $100 billion and so on. Revenue and adjusted profit goals were also established. For each tranche that is achieved, Elon Musk would have the option to purchase about 1% of Tesla stock at $70 per share. Considering that Tesla’s market cap only stood at $59 billion then, the ambitious compensation plan was dubbed as laughably impossible by critics.

“Mr. Musk’s critics — and there are many — are likely to contend that the new compensation plan is just the company’s latest publicity stunt. He has been called a modern-day P.T. Barnum who has created the illusion of success while consistently missing production estimates. The company continues to lose money; at one point last year, it was losing almost a half-million dollars an hour… Jim Chanos, a short-seller who has bet against Tesla’s shares — and has thus far been on the losing side of that trade — has contended that Tesla is worthless,” the NYT wrote then. 

That was just over three years ago. 

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In a securities filing last Friday, Tesla noted that Elon Musk had achieved 6 of his 12 operating targets, and two more were probable soon. A good number of these targets reflected an adjusted version of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Two others represented revenue targets. As noted in a report from The Wall Street Journal, Tesla had also reached 11 of Elon Musk’s 12 market cap targets.

Credit: PCAuto.com

This is incredibly impressive considering that Musk’s 10-year performance award is only in its third year. The long-term plan was designed for a 10-year period, and even Musk, in a statement to the NYT, spoke of a decade-long timeframe when he described his performance award. “I actually see the potential for Tesla to become a trillion-dollar company within a 10-year period,” he said. 

While his net worth will radically increase due to his Tesla performance award, Musk could not simply sell his shares and disappear. Under the terms of his payment arrangement, even once his TSLA shares vest, Musk would have to hold them for an additional five years before he is even allowed to sell them. And as per Elon Musk’s previous statements, this is something that he does not intend to do. 

Musk’s 10-year Tesla performance award is arguably one of the most shareholder-friendly executive payment plans in the market. Other companies typically install outsize packages that often come at the expense of shareholders because executives are compensated even if they underperform. Tesla’s all-or-nothing plan for Elon Musk, on the other hand, greatly benefits shareholders as their holdings will increase in value as Tesla hits its market cap goals. This is great for long-term shareholders who hold the stock, as well as Tesla employees, as they receive TSLA shares when they are employed by the company. 

At the end of December, Elon Musk owned about 22.4% of TSLA’s outstanding shares, up from 20.8% a year earlier. Tesla also has a market cap of $683.42 billion as of Friday’s close. 

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Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Texas man charged in fatal Tesla crash where he blamed Autopilot

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A Texas man has been arrested and charged with manslaughter after his Tesla crashed into a home last month, striking a woman inside and killing her. The driver, Michael Butler, claimed the vehicle was in self-driving mode, but information from Tesla shows that Butler overrode the system.

Butler was arrested on Wednesday and booked at the Harris County, Texas, jail. He remained in custody through Thursday and Friday; he did not enter a plea, and his next court hearing is scheduled for Monday.

Tesla finally clarifies fatal Texas crash, confirms driver manually overrode acceleration

There are a handful of new clues in the case that could clear Tesla of any wrongdoing, especially as the woman who was killed’s family, the Avilas, filed a wrongful death lawsuit against Tesla and Butler, seeking at least $1 million in damages.

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Charging documents from the Harris County prosecutor now show that Butler, who was working DoorDash the evening of the accident, had been using Full Self-Driving mode without incident through the duration of multiple deliveries that evening.

In the moments leading up to the crash, while in FSD and approaching a left turn, Butler pressed the accelerator pedal, overriding FSD’s speed control, and continued to push it until it reached 100 percent. This caused rapid acceleration; the brake pedal was never pressed, and there is no data to show that Butler aimed to turn away from the curb or house.

The charging documents state:

“I noted that the brake pedal was never pressed in the final minute before the crash. I also did not see any data to indicate that the driver attempted to turn away from the curb that he eventually struck. Further, I observed that no mechanical error was detected or recorded by the vehicle before BUTLER and the Tesla struck the curb.”

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Additionally, a forensic analysis of Butler’s phone showed that he searched Google around the time of the crash with queries questioning why FSD was “too timid,” “not aggressive enough,” and even searched, “FSD is not aggressive enough for city driving.”

The documents outlined this:

“Investigator Veal also informed me that he had received BUTLER’s cell phone from Deputy Amad and that HDAO digital forensics team had completed a data extraction and download of the phone. Multiple Google searches related to Tesla had been made from BUTLER’s phone in the months leading up the crash. I noted multiple searches in May of 2026 indicating an apparent frustration with Tesla’s FSD mode, including the following searches: “Tesla fsd not aggressive enough 2026 model,” “Tesla fsd not [sic) aggressive enough 2026,” “FSD is not aggressive enough for city driving,” and “tesla fsd too timid.”‘

Tesla had claimed just after the crash that its internal data showed Butler had overridden the system’s speed control and pressed the accelerator completely, causing the vehicle to travel at an excessive rate of speed. Eventually, the car slammed into Avila’s house, killing her.

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Butler has now been formally charged with Manslaughter, a felony.

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Tesla’s strong Q2 deliveries: Four key drivers behind the surprise

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla shocked with its quarterly delivery report yesterday by reporting it delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter of 2026, a 25 percent year-over-year jump that crushed Wall Street estimates of roughly 400,000–408,000 units. Production reached 451,758, with Model 3 and Model Y accounting for the vast majority.

The result ended two years of annual delivery declines and drew down inventory, signaling demand that outpaced earlier production.

Tesla bears had long warned that the expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit would hammer demand. Without the $7,500 incentive, they argued, American buyers would balk at higher effective prices, leading to a sharp slowdown.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

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That narrative has not played out as predicted. While U.S. EV sales faced broader headwinds, Tesla’s global numbers held firm, underscoring the company’s ability to offset domestic pressure through other levers.

There are several plausible factors that explain Tesla’s strength during this quarter. Let’s take a look at them:

Rising Gas Prices

Rising gas prices provided a powerful tailwind, especially in the U.S.

Geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict pushed fuel costs higher earlier in the year, amplifying the lifetime savings of electric vehicles. Even as oil prices later moderated, the psychological and financial impact lingered, encouraging fleet operators and private buyers to accelerate EV purchases. European sales rebounded sharply, helping drive the quarter’s outperformance.

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Full Self-Driving Adoption

Advances in Full Self-Driving (FSD) supervised software also appear to have boosted appeal. Tesla expanded FSD availability in select European markets and continued refining the system.

For tech-oriented buyers, the promise of future autonomy and enhanced driver-assistance features adds perceived value beyond the car itself. This differentiation helps Tesla stand out in a crowded market where competitors focus primarily on hardware and basic range.

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Pricing Strategy, Affordable Configurations

Tesla’s offerings and its pricing strategy during Q2 further stimulated demand. Tesla introduced lower-cost versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, widening accessibility without sacrificing core margins.

These moves countered affordability concerns and attracted buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines. Combined with attractive financing and leasing options, the pricing strategy converted interest into actual orders more effectively than many analysts expected.

Broad European Recovery

Supported by government incentives, corporate fleet electrification, and easing political headwinds around CEO Elon Musk, Tesla was supplied additional momentum through stronger registration numbers throughout Europe.

Strong exports from the Shanghai Gigafactory and a production ramp at Giga Berlin ensured supply met this resurgent demand. Corporate buyers, in particular, accelerated transitions to EVs to meet sustainability targets, providing a steady volume base.

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These elements created a virtuous cycle that delivered the strong deliveries report. While bears correctly flagged the loss of the U.S. tax credit as a risk, Tesla’s diversified playbook demonstrated that it could remain resilient against those headwinds. The Q2 beat suggests the company remains adept at navigating shifting market conditions, even as competition intensifies.

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Tesla Semi involved in first known fatal crash in Nevada

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Credit: Tesla

A Tesla Semi was involved in a fatal collision on U.S. Highway 50 in Dayton, Nevada, on Sunday, June 28, 2026, marking the first known fatal crash involving the electric Class 8 truck. The incident occurred around 7:20 a.m. at the intersection with Traditions Parkway, approximately 40 miles east of Reno and close to Tesla’s Gigafactory Nevada.

According to the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office and the Nevada State Police Highway Patrol, a semi-truck struck two passenger vehicles stopped at a traffic signal. The truck hit the vehicles from behind. Two people were pronounced dead at the scene, and a third person suffered life-threatening injuries and was flown to a hospital, Forbes reported.

Preliminary statements gathered at the scene by the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office suggested the truck driver may have fallen asleep at the wheel. However, the Nevada Highway Patrol, which is leading the investigation, stated that the official cause has not yet been determined.

Additional information is expected to be released early the following week. The truck was seized for evidence as part of the ongoing probe.

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Responders at the scene included deputies from the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office, personnel from the Nevada Highway Patrol, Central Lyon County Fire Department, and the Nevada Department of Transportation. The crash led to the temporary closure of U.S. 50 in both directions.

The Tesla Semi is Tesla’s battery-electric heavy-duty truck, produced at the nearby Gigafactory in Nevada. Authorities initially described the vehicle as a semi-truck; its make was subsequently confirmed through reporting and scene identification; an interesting bit of information here, as the Semi is not yet available publicly and many do not know that Tesla builds electric trucks.

The investigation remains active, with no further official details on contributing factors or vehicle systems released as of early July 2026.

This incident highlights ongoing scrutiny of commercial vehicle safety on Nevada highways, particularly involving fatigue. Law enforcement continues to gather evidence and witness statements.

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