Investor's Corner
Tesla Gigafactory 1 to see Panasonic’s new battery lines and new Grohmann machines in Q4
Tesla’s upcoming ramp this Q4 2018 is starting to look a lot more encouraging, as Gigafactory 1, the company’s battery and powertrain facility, is set to receive upgraded battery lines from Panasonic, as well as new machines from Grohmann Automation. With these upgrades in place, Tesla’s continued Model 3 push would likely be a lot smoother than the previous quarters.
It is no secret that the Model 3 production ramp has been difficult for Tesla. In an interview earlier this year, Elon Musk described the past twelve months as some of the most difficult and “painful” periods of his career. Despite being in “production hell” for the past year, though, Tesla has started hitting its stride with the manufacturing of the Model 3. This quarter alone, Tesla is aiming to produce 50,000-55,000 units of the electric car — a goal that even a longtime skeptic of the company believes is attainable at this point.
Inasmuch as Tesla would likely break its production records this Q3, the company is just around halfway done with its Model 3 ramp. Tesla expects to increase its output for the vehicle to 10,000 units per week sometime next year as it offers other trims like the $35,000 base Model 3, which will be fitted with a smaller battery pack. To accommodate this upcoming demand, Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 would need to be upgraded.
In a statement to Bloomberg, Tesla partner Panasonic Corp. has announced that it is poised to complete its planned upgrades to the facility’s battery cell production lines earlier than expected. Back in July, Panasonic announced that it would install three new battery cell production lines sometime at the “end of 2018,” but according to Yoshio Ito, head of Panasonic’s automotive business, the Japanese company is now aiming to complete the upgrades earlier than expected. Ito also noted that the bottleneck in Model 3 production had been the result of Panasonic’s challenges in meeting Tesla’s demand.
“The bottleneck for Model 3 production has been our batteries. They just want us to make as many as possible,” Ito said.
The completion of Panasonic’s upcoming upgrades to Gigafactory 1’s battery cell production lines comes amidst the arrival of new machines from Tesla Grohmann Automation, which are designed to boost the electric car maker’s production capabilities. Updates on the new Grohmann machines were related by analysts from Worm Capital who went on a tour of Gigafactory 1 back in August. According to the analysts, Tesla head of investor relations Martin Viecha noted that upgrades from Grohmann, which are set to be sent to Gigafactory 1 by the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4, would help module production become three times faster and three times cheaper.
“Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4. The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly. The machine is already built, and points to the advantage Tesla will have in building future Gigafactories. They have learned many painful lessons, but have a solid blueprint for porting the factory across the world.”
Tesla’s demand for battery cells is set to increase within the coming quarters. As the company sets its sights on more ambitious targets, upgrades to Tesla’s key facilities like Gigafactory 1 could be the determining factor on whether the electric car maker can smoothly ramp production or not. With Panasonic’s upgraded battery cell production lines and the new Grohmann machines, Tesla’s Q4 ramp could very well be the company’s most impressive yet.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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