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Tesla China’s Gigafactory Shanghai-produced Model Y poised for imminent launch
Tesla China may have hit its pace with the ramp of the Model 3, but the company is still yet to release what could very well be its most disruptive vehicle yet, the Model Y crossover. But if recent sightings and local reports are any indication, it appears that the Made-in-China Model Y’s local launch may be imminent.
As noted in a report from the South China Morning Post, a Model Y test unit was recently spotted being transported in a highway in Yancheng, Jiangsu province. The vehicle, which appeared to have a camouflage wrap, was later confirmed to have been produced at Gigafactory Shanghai by two industry officials who were reportedly familiar with the electric car maker’s local operations. This suggests that while construction in Giga Shanghai’s Phase 2 area is ongoing, a pilot line for Model Y production is already operational, at least to some degree.
The presence of a locally-produced Model Y test unit in China is a notable update for Tesla and its efforts to bring the all-electric crossover to the local market. The company, after all, is expected to start producing and delivering the vehicle en masse to local customers by the first quarter of 2021. Considering that sample vehicles are now being produced from Gigafactory Shanghai, there seems to be a good chance that initial Model Y deliveries, perhaps to local employees, may be possible by the end of the year.
Tesla China actually accomplished a similar feat last year, when the first phase of Gigafactory Shanghai was under construction. Back then, images of Made-in-China Model 3 in trial assembly lines started emerging in the third quarter, and by Q4 2019, the company was already in the process of preparing the all-electric sedan for consumer release. Before the end of 2019, Tesla China was able to conduct a handover ceremony for the locally-made Model 3s, though the vehicles were for the company’s employees. A launch of the vehicle to local customers was conducted in early 2020.
Gao Shen, a Shanghai-based independent analyst covering the manufacturing sector, noted in a statement that the Model Y may very well be a successful vehicle in China, especially since its sibling, the Model 3 sedan, has been received warmly by the local market. In June alone, Tesla China delivered 14,954 Model 3, representing 23% of the country’s total sales of pure electric cars, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association. The competition was not close, either, as BYD, in second place, only sold 4,106 units of its EV3.
“Based on its prices, Model Y is set to grab share from the existing domestic premium electric vehicle builders. The new Model Y will be a stern challenge to the Chinese rivals,” Shen said.
Tesla has opened Model Y reservations in China in June, pricing the Long Range version at 488,000 yuan (US$71,200) and the Performance version at 535,000 yuan (US$78,400). These prices place the Model Y among the country’s premium electric vehicles, though Tesla has noted that the cost of its vehicles in China may very well experience reductions due to the increasing use of materials from local suppliers. The vehicle is also expected to qualify for a 25,000 yuan (US$3,600) government subsidy, making the Model Y even more attractive to local customers.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
