Tesla’s market share in the United States is still strong but it is being challenged by less expensive options as consumers are opting for affordable electric vehicles.
A new study from S&P Global Mobility shows Tesla still holds a considerable amount, 65 percent, to be exact, of the U.S. electric vehicle market. However, this figure is down from 79 percent two years ago, and pricing is the biggest reason.
“Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete,” the firm said in its report.
340,000 of the roughly 525,000 EVs registered from January to September 2022 were Teslas. 56 percent of the market was controlled by the Model 3 and Model Y. The remaining sales are divided amongst 46 other EVs that are “competing for scraps” until electrification is more widespread amongst U.S. consumers.
Tesla has four of the top five EV models by registration from January to September. The vehicles in the sixth through tenth positions are the Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV (21,600 registrations), Hyundai Ioniq5 (between 17,000-18,000 units), Kia EV6 (between 17,000-18,000 units), Volkswagen ID.4 (11,000 units), and Nissan Leaf (10,000 units).
Credit: S&P Global Mobility
Tesla still obviously dominates the field. However, S&P Global Mobility notes Tesla’s position is changing because more affordable options are available, and they offer “equal or better technology and production build.” Because of this, the firm’s report notes that Tesla’s ability to retain a dominant market share will not be guaranteed in the future.
The group of 48 competing models to the Model 3 and Model Y will only grow. The firm forecasts 159 models across all manufacturers in the U.S. EV market by the end of 2025, which is faster than Tesla will be able to add production volume through new manufacturing plants. Tesla does plan to eventually attack the affordable market with the rumored $25,000 model, which CEO Elon Musk confirmed during the Q3 earnings call was in development. When Tesla will launch the vehicle is unclear, but its competition in the affordable vehicle market will be thick when the car is eventually brought to production.
Tesla is one of the few automakers that is a pure-EV company. S&P Global Mobility’s report estimates this could be the company’s biggest advantage as “few EV owners have returned to ICE powertrains.” However, Tesla brand loyalty could be tested as more EVs enter the market. The Model Y currently has 60.5 percent brand loyalty, and nearly 74 percent of buyers were first-time Tesla owners. These figures both lead the industry.
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Chevy answered Tesla’s new Standard Model 3 and Model Y offerings with its second-generation Bolt EV, a car that actually appeals to those who were looking for affordability.
Earlier this week, Tesla unveiled the Model 3 and Model Y Standard, two stripped-down versions of the cars of the same name it already offers. The Long Range versions are now labeled as “Premium,” while the Performance configurations stand alone.
Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings
However, many people were sort of upset with what Tesla came to market with. For well over a year, it has been transparent that it was planning to develop affordable models, and this year, it was forced to take action to counter the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.
The Model 3 Standard starts at $36,990, while the Model Y Standard comes in at $39,990. While these are cheaper than the company’s Premium offerings, many fans said that Tesla missed the mark with the pricing, as these numbers are not necessarily “affordable.”
At the very least, they will likely miss the mark in helping Tesla regain annual growth rates for its deliveries. Tesla will likely rely on its “unboxed process,” which will be used to manufacture the Cybercab and potentially other affordable models in the future. These will be priced at below $30,000.
Other carmakers are making their moves and were able to undercut Tesla’s new Standard offerings, Chevrolet being one of them.
This week, the company launched its second-gen Bolt EV, which starts at just $28,995.
Here are the full specs:
- 65 kWh LFP battery
- 255 miles of range (EPA estimated)
- Native NACS port for Tesla Supercharger accessibility without an adapter
- Up to 150 kW charging speed
- Bidirectional power of 9.6 kW
- Front-Wheel-Drive
- 10-80% charging in just 26 minutes
- No Apple CarPlay or Android Auto
- SuperCruise capable
- 11.3″ touchscreen, 11″ digital gauge cluster
- 16 cubic feet of cargo capacity
- Other Trims
- RS – $32,000
- Base LT – $28,995
- Deliveries begin in early 2026
Let’s be frank: Tesla fans are unlikely to bat an eye at other OEM offerings. However, first-time EV buyers might be looking for something more price accessible, so vehicles under $30,000 are where they will look first, at least for most people.
If money isn’t an option, people will consider spending a minimum of $37,000 on a new vehicle, especially an EV, as a first-time owner.
The Bolt EV could be something that does well, especially considering its one of only a handful of EVs that are priced at around $30,000 brand new in the U.S.
The others are:
- Nissan Leaf S ($28,140)
- Mini Cooper SE ($30,900)
- Fiat 500e ($32,500)
While these cars are priced at around $30,000 and are affordable, they each offer minimal range ratings. The Nissan Leaf S and Fiat 500e have just 149 miles, while the Mini Cooper SE has 114 miles.
Tesla’s flagship sedan, the Model S, has officially been named one of TIME Magazine’s Best Inventions of the 2000s. It joins its sibling, the Model 3, which made the list in 2017.
The Model S is among the most crucial developments in the automotive industry in the last century.
Just as the Ford Model T made its mark on passenger transportation, becoming the first combustion engine vehicle to be successfully developed and marketed at a time when horse and buggy were the preferred mode of transportation, the Model S revolutionized things a step further.
Although it was not the first EV to be developed, the Tesla Model S was the EV that put EVs on the map. In 2012, TIME recognized the Model S as a piece of technology that could truly transform the car industry.
The publication wrote:
“This electric four-door sedan has the lines of a Jaguar, the ability to zip for 265 miles (426 km) on one charge—that’s the equivalent of 89 m.p.g. (2.6 L/100 km)—and touchscreen controls for everything from GPS navigation to adjusting the suspension.”
Looking back, TIME was right on. The Tesla Model S was truly a marvel for its time, and it, along with the OG 2008 Roadster, can be seen as the first two EVs to push electrification to the mainstream.
As TIME described this year, the Model S “proved to be a game-changing experience for electric vehicles,” and it ended up truly catalyzing things for not only the industry, but Tesla as well.
The Model S acted as a fundraiser of sorts for future vehicles, just as the Model X did. They paved the way for the Model 3 and Model Y to be developed and offered by Tesla at a price point that was more acceptable and accessible to the masses.
The Current State of the Tesla Model S
The Model S contributes to a very small percentage of Tesla sales. The company groups the Model S with the Model X and Cybertruck in its quarterly releases.
Last year, that grouping sold 85,133 total units, a small percentage of the 1.789 million cars it delivered to customers in 2024.
Things looked to be changing for the Model S and the Model X this year, as Tesla teased some improvements to the two cars with a refresh. However, it was very underwhelming and only included very minor changes.
Lucid CEO shades Tesla Model S: “Nothing has changed in 12 years now”
It appeared as if Tesla was planning to sunset the two cars, and while it has not taken that stance yet, it seems more likely that the company will begin taking any potential options to heart.
CEO Elon Musk said a few years ago that the two cars were only produced due to “sentimental reasons.”
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.
Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive
However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.
TD Cowen
TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.
Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.
Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth
Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.
Stifel
Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.
The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.
Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements
Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.
It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.
Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.
UBS
While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.
UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.
It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.
In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.
Chevy answers Tesla’s new ‘Standard’ offerings with an actually affordable EV
Tesla Model S makes TIME’s list of Best Inventions
Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon
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