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Tesla Model 3 production is reportedly closing in on 4,000 per week
After the scheduled shutdown in April, the Tesla Model 3 production line is reportedly closing in on 4,000 vehicles per week.
The figures were first reported by Tesla Motors Club member bkmxp100d, a Tesla owner who stated that they were informed of the numbers by a friend working at the Fremont factory. The production shutdown last month reportedly had a positive effect on the pace of the Model 3 line, allowing the electric car maker to manufacture 4,290 Model 3 in 7 days, with a peak of 638 vehicles in 24 hours. The next scheduled shutdown for the Model 3 line is reportedly scheduled for the May 26-May 27 weekend as well.
While the numbers provided by the Tesla enthusiast appear to be optimistic speculations, the ramp to 4,000 Model 3 per week is roughly in line with the estimates of Bloomberg‘s online tracker. Currently, the tracker shows that Tesla is pacing towards a rate of 4,000 vehicles per week. Other members of the forum community also stated that their own sources from Tesla are reporting Model 3 production figures hovering slightly below or just above the ~4,000/week range. VIN registrations from last week were encouraging as well, with Tesla filing more than 8,000 VINs in a single week.
Bloomberg‘s Model 3 tracker as of 05/14/18. [Credit: Bloomberg]
During the first-quarter earnings call, Elon Musk mentioned that what he is “most excited about” was the rapid increase in the production output of the Model 3 line. Musk even noted that the Model 3’s peak hours already correspond to 5,000 vehicles per week.
“The thing I’m most excited about is the rapid increase in output. We got just in the last 24 hours at the Gigafactory managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per day – sorry, per week, and actually reached a peak hour with extrapolated outward would be a rate of about 5,000 cars per week.”
“We also saw enormous improvement in zone four of module production. This, I should point out, is a fully automated zone, and we’re able to also achieve sustained rates of 3,000 vehicles a week. So, we’re actually slightly ahead in factory module and pack production than expected. And with some work at the Fremont vehicle plant, primarily in the general assembly area, I’m confident we will very soon exceed the 3,000 mark in Fremont.”
Responding to an article published by Ars Technica about how the company’s issues with its machinery were reflective of GM’s struggles back in the 1980s, Musk recently tweeted that the company is currently working on the Model 3 line’s “worst production choke points.” Musk also noted that a “Hackathon” — a fast-paced programming session that sometimes lasts for days — is currently ongoing, in order to address bottlenecks in the Model 3 line.
Fair criticism, but we’re fixing it fast. Hackathon going on right now to fix 2 worst robot production chokepoints. Looks promising.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 14, 2018
Since the first-quarter earnings call, Elon Musk has doubled down on his rhetoric about the Model 3’s production numbers and Tesla’s profitability by the third or fourth quarter of 2018. Just a couple of days after the earnings call, Musk stated that the “short burn of the century” is about to come.
“Oh and uh short burn of the century coming soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time. It will be next level. These are really big numbers,” Musk tweeted.
Musk also took the battle to the company’s short-sellers, buying 27,097 Telsa shares, which correspond to an investment of nearly $10 million in TSLA.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will report its earnings for the second quarter of 2026 this evening after market close, and investors and analysts are waiting anxiously to see what the company will report for the second three-month span of the year.
Analysts have already put out their expectations from a financial standpoint for the company’s second quarter, but what’s unknown is what Tesla plans to discuss during the call.
Financial Expectations
Wall Street consensus expectations put Tesla’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) at $0.53, while revenues are expected to come in around $26.4 billion.
This would compare to an EPS of $0.39 and $22.19 billion compared to Tesla’s Q2 2025. Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.41 on $22.387 billion of revenue. Additionally in Q1, Tesla beat analyst expectations, but shares dropped over 3 percent the following trading day.
What We Expect
In terms of discussions, Tesla earnings are pretty sporadic and depend on a handful of things, including current events, investor questions, and more.
Tesla uses a platform called Say to field questions from investors and analysts. These questions are what will be used during the call. Here are the top 5 from the Retail side and top 3 from the Institutional side:
Retail:
“Tesla has missed short-term guidance on robotaxi 3 earnings reports in a row, from 50% coverage of USA by end of 2025 to most recently 7 new cities in 1H26. What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing these short term goals that they’ve set for themselves?”
“What are the main constraints to expanding robotaxi operations faster, and how do you see that lining up with Cybercab production?”
“What’s the current status of Optimus Gen 3 production ramp, initial deployment in factories, and external sales timeline/volume for 2027? What tasks can we expect the Optimus to perform by end of 2027?”
“To reward long-term Tesla retail shareholders for their loyalty, can you commit to achieving at least half of the goals outlined in your 2025 compensation plan before considering any offers to acquire or merge Tesla?”
“Why has growth of robotaxi vehicles stalled? When will we see cybercab start customer rides?”
Institutional
“Previously, you’ve said Tesla would lead the R&D while SpaceX would lead production for Terafab. Can you provide an update on how that division of responsibilities is evolving, and any additional clarity on the expected capital contributions from Tesla and SpaceX?”
“For autonomous driving, Tesla’s fleet created a huge data advantage by collecting billions of real-world miles. That advantage doesn’t yet exist for Optimus. How should we think about data availability and its impact on Optimus development?”
“Why is it necessary to limit robotaxi operations within specific zones within cities to start? Will every city have to be rolled out this way?”
Tesla will report earnings for Q2 this evening with the Shareholder Deck at 4 p.m. ET, with the call starting around 5:30 p.m. ET.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk handed Grok something no other AI company can get their hands on
Elon Musk says SpaceX will feed engineering data into Grok’s next model, avoiding restricted material.
Elon Musk said Tuesday that SpaceX will feed its internal engineering data into the next major training run for Grok, the AI model now folded into SpaceX following February’s merger. In a post on X, Musk wrote that SpaceX’s “massive corpus of world-class engineering data,” excluding anything restricted under U.S. arms export law, will be added during supplemental training of what he called the “2T run,” a reference to a roughly two trillion parameter model that would nearly double the parameters behind the latest Grok 4.5 that’s rolling out.
SpaceX’s massive corpus of world-class engineering data (excluding material blocked by ITAR) will be added during supplemental training of the 2T run.
This will dramatically improve Grok’s engineering capabilities. https://t.co/BbQEViFByn
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 21, 2026
The excluded material that Musk is referring to would fall under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which restricts export of technical data tied to defense and space hardware. That likely rules out propulsion specifics for Merlin and Raptor engines along with guidance and control details for SpaceX’s launch vehicles, but leaves manufacturing knowledge, materials science, and Starlink hardware design on the table.
The announcement extends a pattern that has been building since SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut in June, when the company went public with Grok and xAI’s Colossus supercomputer folded into the pitch to investors.
Days after that listing, SpaceX closed its $60 billion all stock acquisition of coding startup Cursor, giving xAI both enterprise software distribution and a stream of real world developer data to train on. Grok 4.5 launched July 8 running partly on that Cursor training data, with Musk describing it as roughly comparable to Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 but faster and cheaper to run.
Feeding SpaceX’s own engineering data into the next AI model follows the same logic Musk has applied across xAI’s sister companies. Tesla supplies real world driving data and manufacturing expertise, X supplies conversational data, and now SpaceX supplies aerospace engineering data built up since 2002.
Musk did not give a release date for the upcoming AI model, referred to elsewhere as Grok 4.6. He has said the two trillion parameter run is in its final training phase and expected to wrap this week.
Tesla has extended its Bay Area ride-hailing service to include pickups and drop-offs at San Francisco International Airport (SFO). The update, shared via the company’s official channels on July 21, allows users in the region to request rides directly to and from one of California’s busiest airports.
The expansion builds on Tesla’s secured limousine permit for SFO operations. Public records show the permit became effective March 20, 2026, and remains active through January 31, 2027. Tesla vehicles operating the service now display authorized limousine permits issued by the City and County of San Francisco.
Our Bay Area rideshare service now goes to SFO ✈️
— Tesla AI (@Tesla_AI) July 21, 2026
Tesla’s ride-hailing program in California relies on Model Y vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving (Supervised) technology. Human safety drivers remain present in compliance with state regulations, distinguishing the service from fully driverless operations.
The Bay Area geofence covers a broad area spanning north of San Francisco to south of San Jose, offering extensive connectivity across the region.
UPDATE: Elon Musk reveals why Tesla didn’t say ‘Robotaxi’ upon California launch
This SFO addition follows earlier progress at other Bay Area airports. Tesla previously expanded service to San Jose Mineta International Airport (SJC) in late 2025. The company had engaged with SFO, SJC, and Oakland International Airport officials as early as September 2025 to secure necessary approvals for passenger transport.
The service provides a new option for travelers seeking electric, app-based transportation integrated with Tesla’s ecosystem. Rides are booked through Tesla’s dedicated ride-hailing application, which handles matching, routing, and payments. Pricing follows standard ride-hailing models, with potential adjustments based on distance, time, and demand.
Tesla’s California ride-hailing program launched in July 2025 with an initial invite-only rollout in the Bay Area. It started alongside operations in Austin, Texas, marking the company’s second major U.S. market.
The Bay Area remains a primary focus in California, with service centered on high-demand corridors connecting residential, commercial, and now major transportation hubs. This latest airport integration represents a practical step in Tesla’s broader mobility ambitions within the state.
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