Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 tops Jan-Feb 2018 EV sales in US, according to new report
The Tesla Model 3 topped the rankings of estimated electric vehicle sales in the United States in the year so far, with approximately 4,360 units of the mass market compact electric sedan making their way to buyers from January to February. With these figures, the Model 3 has overtaken its siblings, the Model S and X, direct competitors such as the Chevy Bolt EV, and even mainstays such as the Toyota Prius Prime.
It is no secret that the Model 3’s production has seen several delays. Over the past couple of quarters, Tesla has fallen short of its Model 3 guidance, with the carmaker delivering only 1,770 units of the electric car to customers by the end of 2017. The California-based firm also stated that it was able to achieve a production rate of 1,000 units per week by the end of December.
As noted in InsideEVs’ sales scorecard for January and February, Model 3 saw an uptick in the number of vehicles deliveries since the year began, with the publication stating that approximately 1,875 Model 3 were delivered in January and 2,485 Model 3 were delivered in February 2018.
These figures, while still seemingly behind Tesla’s own estimates (Tesla expects a production rate of 2,500 Model 3 per week by the end of March), still translate to the Model 3 being the best-selling electric car in the United States in the year so far. Its closest competitor, the Toyota Prius Prime, sold 3,546 units from January to February, roughly 20% less than the 4,360 Model 3 that were sold during the same period.
In comparison, the EV-based publication tracked 1,925 Model S and 1,575 Model X that were sold during the first two months of 2018. The Chevy Bolt EV, widely seen as the Model 3’s closest competitor in terms of features and price, sold 2,601 units from January to February.
Considering that Tesla does not issue monthly sales reports for its vehicles, InsideEVs came up with its estimated January Model 3 sales by taking the 860 units in transit at the end of December and adding the estimated ~500 Model 3 that were manufactured in each of the first two weeks of January, which the publication believes were successfully delivered by the end of the month. For February, an uptick in Model 3 deliveries were considered, with some units manufactured at the beginning of the month being delivered to their owners by February 28.
Despite the delays in its production, the Tesla Model 3 appears to be a key vehicle in electric car sales this 2018. As could be seen in the delivery estimates for the mass market electric car, the Model 3’s sales are only limited by the number of vehicles that Tesla can produce. With Tesla settling into its pace with the Model 3 manufacturing, the car’s dominance in the electric car market would likely be undeniable.
As we noted in a previous report, Tesla seems to be preparing for the rollout of AWD variants of the Model 3. Just last week, a dual-motor Model 3 was spotted in the wild, with the car carrying a VIN ending in 8370.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
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