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What if Tesla doesn’t refresh the Model S or X?

Credit: Instagram | emrEHusmen

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One of the more popular Tesla rumors that has made its way through the community is the possibility of a refreshed design of the Model S and Model X. The two cars have had very minor cosmetic adjustments since their introduction in 2012 and 2015. While they contribute to Tesla’s quarterly sales and delivery figures, they are, in essence, sentimental vehicles. At least, that is what Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during a 2019 Tesla Earnings call. “To be totally frank, we’re continuing to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They’re really of minor importance to the future,” Musk said.

Which begs the question: Why is Tesla planning a refresh of the two vehicles now, a year and a half after Musk called the S and X “sentimental” cars that had relatively minor importance to the future. While the Tesla community has certainly convinced itself that a newly designed Model S and Model X are on the way, there is the possibility that it isn’t even going to happen.

It all started when Tesla shut down Model S and Model X production lines in late 2020. The catalyst to all the rumors was that the company was upgrading production lines to handle the redesigned vehicles, and Tesla could agree upon the right modifications to make for the new models. It all makes sense of why many people jumped to “They’re refreshing the cars” right away. After all, the Model 3 just had an update of its own, and it was mostly cosmetic.


This is a preview from our weekly newsletter. Each week I go ‘Beyond the News’ and handcraft a special edition that includes my thoughts on the biggest stories, why it matters, and how it could impact the future. 

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However, the S and X have been around for so many years, with the only huge change being the nosecone modification. There have been many software updates and performance upgrades, but those apply to every Tesla vehicle, for the most part, with very few exceptions included.

The Model S and Model X production lines being shut down led to me getting nosy and calling my local showroom. I decided to give them a call because they’re always willing to talk about Tesla, and they’re so knowledgeable that it is nice to have a reasonable conversation with someone who knows what is going on within the community. According to who I spoke to, they received emails stating that the lines were being shut down for efficiency reasons. There was no hint toward a redesign of the Model S and Model X. Of course, Tesla isn’t going to tell the showroom associates and sales advisors this. It’s obviously going to stay among the company’s executives.

But if we dig into the efficiency of the Model S and Model X lines at Fremont, it makes a lot of sense. The Model S and Model X only accounted for 18,920 of the over 180,000 vehicles that Tesla delivered in Q4 2020. The car was only delivered 57,039 times for the full year, while Tesla delivered just shy of half a million cars in total.

Tesla Model S and Model X are disappearing from showrooms, further hinting at coming ‘refresh’

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Does it make sense to have two production lines dedicated to cars making up only around 12-13% of the total output at Fremont? Could these lines be consolidated into one, with the other line being converted to a 3/Y line? This would alleviate some of the supply constraints that Tesla has with Model 3 and Model Y production. It could enable faster deliveries as demand climbs, and it could enable Tesla to be more efficient in its production of the S and X moving forward.

Musk has been a huge proponent of increasing manufacturing and production efficiency. It makes a lot of sense to me that Tesla would consider shutting down S/X lines to upgrade one line to a 3/Y line; the demand for S/X just isn’t great enough to dedicate two lines to the operation. 3/Y production is much more important.

This is all speculation, and while I do think that Tesla will upgrade and update the S and X in some ways, I don’t see how they can make major changes, especially since the company has already announced and shown the Model S Plaid, which is set to begin deliveries later this year. If Tesla were to refresh the S, there would be a major cause for concern for those who already ordered the Plaid S because it would likely mean a new vehicle would be on its way that would look entirely different than the current Plaid Model S.

It just seems like IF Tesla is going to refresh the S, they will widen the body style as the Plaid Model S has influenced. It will likely not have the rear diffuser or the spoiler. It may just be a wider body style.

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Tesla Model S “Refresh” spotted with Plaid-style widebody and new wheels near HQ

Of course, Tesla will also likely implement the 4680 battery cells in the cars, which would revamp the battery pack with more life, power, and longevity. That is if Tesla has the supply for it because the company is still very early on in its battery manufacturing efforts at Kato Road. It is not unlikely that the S and X could be the first cars to use Tesla’s structural battery pack to increase safety and rigidity. Once again, these are all speculation and only thoughts that make sense.

Of course, there is always the possibility that Tesla could be attempting to rebirth the S/X with a complete revamp of its design and infrastructure. It could lead to a less expensive cost. Tesla having 4 vehicles that are mass-market instead of 2 could bring Tesla closer to price parity, increasing the growth of the EV sector. How they will do this, it likely depends on the batteries, which make up so much of the vehicle’s cost. However, the cars will likely need some kind of cosmetic update as well to appeal to customers moving forward. The 3 and Y seem to be more widely accepted, not only because of price but because of look.

A big thanks to our long-time supporters and new subscribers! Thank you.

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I use this newsletter to share my thoughts on what is going on in the Tesla world. If you want to talk to me directly, you can email me or reach me on Twitter. I don’t bite, be sure to reach out!

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk doubles down on Tesla Cybercab timeline once again

“Cybercab, which has no pedals or steering wheel, starts production in April,” Musk said.

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Credit: @JT59052914/X

CEO Elon Musk doubled down once again on the timeline of production for the Tesla Cybercab, marking yet another example of the confidence he has in the company’s ability to meet the aggressive timeline for the vehicle.

It is the third time in the past six months that Musk has explicitly stated Cybercab will enter production in April 2026.

On Monday morning, Musk reiterated that Cybercab will enter its initial manufacturing phase in April, and that it would not have any pedals or a steering wheel, two things that have been speculated as potential elements of the vehicle, if needed.

Musk has been known to be aggressive with timelines, and some products have been teased for years and years before they finally come to fruition.

One of perhaps the biggest complaints about Musk is the fact that Tesla does not normally reach the deadlines that are set: the Roadster, Semi, and Unsupervised Full Self-Driving suite are a few of those that have been given “end of this year” timelines, but have not been fulfilled.

Nevertheless, many are able to look past this as part of the process. New technology takes time to develop, but we’d rather not hear about when, and just the progress itself.

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However, the Cybercab is a bit different. Musk has said three times in the past six months that Cybercab will be built in April, and this is something that is sort of out of the ordinary for him.

In December 2025, he said that Tesla was “testing the production system” of the vehicle and that “real production ramp starts in April.

Elon Musk shares incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab efficiency

On January 23, he said that “Cybercab production starts in April.” He did the same on February 16, marking yet another occasion that Musk has his sights set on April for initial production of the vehicle.

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Musk has also tempered expectations for the Cybercab’s initial production phase. In January, he noted that Cybercab would be subjected to the S-curve-type production speed:

“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”

Cybercab will be a huge part of Tesla’s autonomous ride-sharing plans moving forward.

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Elon Musk

Tesla owners explore potential FSD pricing options as uncertainty looms

We asked Tesla owners what the company should price Full Self-Driving moving forward, as now it’s going to be subscription-based. There were some interesting proposals.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is starting the process of removing the ability to purchase the Full Self-Driving suite outright, as it pulled the purchase option in the United States over the weekend.

However, there has been some indication by CEO Elon Musk that the price of the subscription will increase as the suite becomes more robust. But Tesla finds itself in an interesting situation with this: the take rate for Full Self-Driving at $99 per month is about 12 percent, and Musk needs a significant increase in this rate to reach a tranche in his new compensation package.

This leaves Tesla and owners in their own respective limbos: Tesla needs to find a price that will incentivize consumers to use FSD, while owners need Tesla to offer something that is attractive price-wise.

We asked Tesla owners what the company should price Full Self-Driving moving forward, as now it’s going to be subscription-based. There were some interesting proposals.

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Price Reduction

Although people are willing to pay the $99 per month for the FSD suite, it certainly is too high for some owners. Many suggested that if Tesla would back down the price to $49, or somewhere around that region, many owners would immediately subscribe.

Others suggested $69, which would make a lot of sense considering Musk’s obsession with that number.

Different Pricing for Supervised and Unsupervised

With the release of the Unsupervised version of Full Self-Driving, Tesla has a unique opportunity to offer pricing for different attention level requirements.

Unsupervised Full Self-Driving would be significantly more expensive, but not needed by everyone. Many people indicate they would still like to drive their cars manually from time to time, but others said they’d just simply be more than okay with only having Supervised FSD available in their cars.

Time-Based Pricing

Tesla could price FSD on a duration-based pricing model, including Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Annual rates, which would incentivize longer durations with better pricing.

Annually, the rate could be $999 per year, while Monthly would stay at $99. However, a Daily pass of FSD would cost somewhere around $10, while a $30 per week cost seems to be ideal.

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These all seem to be in line with what consumers might want. However, Tesla’s attitude with FSD is that it is the future of transportation, and with it offering only a Monthly option currently, it does not seem as if it will look as short-term as a Daily pass.

Tiered Pricing

This is perhaps the most popular option, according to what we’ve seen in comments and replies.

This would be a way to allow owners to pick and choose which FSD features they would like most and pay for them. The more features available to you, the more it costs.

For example, if someone only wanted Supervised driving and Autopark, it could be priced at $50 per month. Add in Summon, it could be $75.

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This would allow people to pick only the features they would use daily.

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Tesla leaves a single loophole to purchase Full Self-Driving outright

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has left a single loophole to purchase Full Self-Driving outright. On Sunday, the option officially disappeared from the Online Design Studio in the United States, as Tesla transitioned to a Subscription-only purchasing plan for the FSD suite.

However, there is still one way to get the Full Self-Driving suite in an outright manner, which would not require the vehicle owner to pay monthly for the driver assistance program — but you have to buy a Model S or Model X.

Months ago, Tesla launched a special “Luxe Package” for the Model S and Model X, which included Full Self-Driving for the life of the vehicle, as well as free Supercharging at over 75,000 locations, as well as free Premium Connectivity, and a Four-Year Premium Service package, which includes wheel and tire protection, windshiel protection, and recommended maintenance.

It would also be available through the purchase of a Cyberbeast, the top trim of the Cybertruck lineup.

This small loophole would allow owners to avoid the monthly payment, but there have been some changes in the fine print of the program, as Tesla has added that it will not be transferable to subsequent vehicle owners or to another vehicle.

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This goes for the FSD and the Supercharging offers that come with the Luxe Package.

For now, Tesla still has the Full Self-Driving subscription priced at $99 per month. However, that price is expected to increase over the course of some time, especially as its capabilities improve. Tesla seems to be nearing Unsupervised FSD based on Musk’s estimates for the Cybercab program.

There is the potential that Tesla offers both Unsupervised and Supervised FSD for varying prices, but this is not confirmed.

In other countries, Tesla has pushed back the deadline to purchase the suite outright, as in Australia, it has been adjusted to March 31.

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