Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Tesla On Pace To Deliver 18,300+ Cars in Q4

Stock analyst Trip Chowdry claims the pace of activity at the Tesla factory is “three times” what it was a year ago. He predicts the company will deliver 18,300 cars on the fourth quarter that ends December 31.

Published

on

Tesla will report its Q4 delivery numbers next Monday, January 4, but Global Equities Research managing director Trip Chowdhry told International Business Daily on Wednesday the company is working feverishly to deliver as many cars as possible by the end of the year. He describes the pace of activity at the factory as “at least three times” what it was at this time last year. If Chowdry is correct, Tesla will meet its delivery guidance of between 50,000 and 52,000 cars for the year. Lots of things can affect the final number, including inclement weather that slows the delivery process.

“Factoring in two weeks of extreme slowness at the beginning of Q4 and extremely high delivery activity in the last 45 days,” Chowdhry is confident that “deliveries are ahead of the midpoint, we are saying, probably around 18,300 (for Q4), ahead of the midpoint of (Tesla’s) guidance of between 17,000 and 19,000 deliveries.”

It was widely assumed that Tesla would need to deliver lots of its newly introduced Model X crossover SUV in the fourth quarter in order to meet its goals, but in fact, Chowdhry reports that he has a high degree of confidence that at least 300 Model X have been delivered thus far. That means that sales and deliveries of the Model S sedan have been greater than anticipated.

Tesla Motors pop-up store in Santa Barbara, CA [Source: Tesla Motors]

Tesla Motors pop-up store in Santa Barbara, CA [Source: Tesla Motors]

People place too much emphasis on delivery numbers, Chowdry maintains. “It’s good to monitor [the numbers] because it tells the direction the company is going but should not be sole reason people are investing — based on quarterly numbers. Tesla is not GM. Tesla is not Ford.”

He has harsh words for the many competitors who are suddenly clamoring to get in on the premium electric car market, including Ford, Porsche, Audi and Volvo. “The questions to ask these Tesla Killers,” he says, ” are where is your Gigafactory? Where is your cloud computing platform? Where is your machine learning platform? Where is your Supercharger Network? Where is your store?” He dismisses most of the declared Tesla competitors as “clueless.”

Average selling price of the vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable, thanks in large part to the popularity of the dual motor option, which adds $5,000 to the base price of the cars. 70% of new Model S sedans are ordered with the dual motor system. Chowdry says 98% of all new Teslas are ordered with the Autopilot suite of sensors and software, a $2,500 option.

Advertisement

The future is looking good for Tesla shareholders. Meeting delivery targets will squelch many naysayers who claimed it couldn’t be done. Model X deliveries are ramping up. The Model 3 will be introduced in the spring with pre-orders beginning at the same time. There will also be significant new business as the Gigafactory begins filling orders for residential and grid storage batteries. Add it all together and 2016 should be a breakout year for Tesla.

 

 

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

Comments

Investor's Corner

Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed

The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.

Published

on

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives. 

Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars

Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.

Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.

TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target

TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects. 

Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.

Advertisement
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake

The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker. 

Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

Institutional investors and TSLA

Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.

The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.

Recent insider sales

Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.

Advertisement

Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.

@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments

Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Published

on

Credit: @TeslaLarry/X

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Baron doubles down on Tesla

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.

“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.

A lifelong investment

Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.

“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”

Advertisement

Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.

@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
Continue Reading

Trending