Investor's Corner
Tesla On Pace To Deliver 18,300+ Cars in Q4
Stock analyst Trip Chowdry claims the pace of activity at the Tesla factory is “three times” what it was a year ago. He predicts the company will deliver 18,300 cars on the fourth quarter that ends December 31.
Tesla will report its Q4 delivery numbers next Monday, January 4, but Global Equities Research managing director Trip Chowdhry told International Business Daily on Wednesday the company is working feverishly to deliver as many cars as possible by the end of the year. He describes the pace of activity at the factory as “at least three times” what it was at this time last year. If Chowdry is correct, Tesla will meet its delivery guidance of between 50,000 and 52,000 cars for the year. Lots of things can affect the final number, including inclement weather that slows the delivery process.
“Factoring in two weeks of extreme slowness at the beginning of Q4 and extremely high delivery activity in the last 45 days,” Chowdhry is confident that “deliveries are ahead of the midpoint, we are saying, probably around 18,300 (for Q4), ahead of the midpoint of (Tesla’s) guidance of between 17,000 and 19,000 deliveries.”
It was widely assumed that Tesla would need to deliver lots of its newly introduced Model X crossover SUV in the fourth quarter in order to meet its goals, but in fact, Chowdhry reports that he has a high degree of confidence that at least 300 Model X have been delivered thus far. That means that sales and deliveries of the Model S sedan have been greater than anticipated.
![Tesla Motors pop-up store in Santa Barbara, CA [Source: Tesla Motors]](http://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Tesla-Pop-up-Store-Santa-Barbara.jpg)
Tesla Motors pop-up store in Santa Barbara, CA [Source: Tesla Motors]
People place too much emphasis on delivery numbers, Chowdry maintains. “It’s good to monitor [the numbers] because it tells the direction the company is going but should not be sole reason people are investing — based on quarterly numbers. Tesla is not GM. Tesla is not Ford.”
He has harsh words for the many competitors who are suddenly clamoring to get in on the premium electric car market, including Ford, Porsche, Audi and Volvo. “The questions to ask these Tesla Killers,” he says, ” are where is your Gigafactory? Where is your cloud computing platform? Where is your machine learning platform? Where is your Supercharger Network? Where is your store?” He dismisses most of the declared Tesla competitors as “clueless.”
Average selling price of the vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable, thanks in large part to the popularity of the dual motor option, which adds $5,000 to the base price of the cars. 70% of new Model S sedans are ordered with the dual motor system. Chowdry says 98% of all new Teslas are ordered with the Autopilot suite of sensors and software, a $2,500 option.
-->The future is looking good for Tesla shareholders. Meeting delivery targets will squelch many naysayers who claimed it couldn’t be done. Model X deliveries are ramping up. The Model 3 will be introduced in the spring with pre-orders beginning at the same time. There will also be significant new business as the Gigafactory begins filling orders for residential and grid storage batteries. Add it all together and 2016 should be a breakout year for Tesla.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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