Investor's Corner
Deeper Tesla, Panasonic ties could lead to a Smart Home future
A growing partnership between Tesla and Panasonic on solar cell production and storage batteries may one day eliminate residential reliance on the power grid and provide the capacity to recharge electric cars each night. However, to secure this collaboration on solar cell and module production, Tesla’s proposed SolarCity acquisition must first be approved by shareholders on November 17, 2016.
In the meantime, Tesla and Panasonic have entered into a non-binding letter of intent under which they will begin collaborating on the manufacturing and production of photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules in Buffalo, New York. The Buffalo facility will become the largest solar panel factory in North America, with expectations to employ 1,460 workers and produce up to 10,000 panels per day.
A blog post on Tesla’s website acknowledged that the continued partnership with Panasonic is an important step in creating fully-integrated energy products for businesses, homeowners, and utilities and furthers Tesla’s mission toward a sustainable energy future.
The Relationship between Tesla and Panasonic
The October 16, 2016 announcement confirmed that this newest collaboration extends the established relationship between Tesla and Panasonic, which includes the production of electric vehicle and grid storage battery cells at Tesla’s Gigafactory outside Sparks, Nevada. The $5 billion Gigafactory will produce batteries for the Model 3 electric car and energy storage products for home and utilities.
“We expect that the collaboration talks will lead to growth of the Tesla and Panasonic relationship,” said Shuuji Okayama, vice president of Panasonic’s Eco Solutions unit.
Battery cell production will begin by late 2016 and is expected to reach full capacity by 2018, producing more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013. In cooperation with Panasonic and other strategic partners, the Gigafactory will produce batteries that have the capacity to drive down the per kilowatt hour (kWh) cost of a battery pack by more than 30 percent. That anticipated cost drop is crucial, as current battery costs are untenable.
Panasonic plans to begin PV cell and module production at the Buffalo facility in 2017, and Tesla intends to provide a long-term purchase commitment for those cells from Panasonic. The Tesla/ Panasonic collaboration could mean that energy from solar panels will be pumped into home storage batteries. No longer would residential home solar systems follow the traditional model of selling back to utilities.
Panasonic’s Future Home
Panasonic demonstrates a ‘PanoHome’ smart home in Malaysia [Source: Panasonic]
The proposed Tesla/ Panasonic collaboration would shift Panasonic’s historic focus from consumer electronics products and onto housing, automotive information systems, and vehicle batteries, which “would be a win” for Panasonic, according to Bloomberg. Panasonic’s transition to the home electric market began in 2009 with its Tokyo Future Home, which features the latest environmental technologies and a few prototypes. The house is designed to aid natural ventilation and cut down on air conditioning. The walls of the house are lined with a thin and efficient insulator that cuts down on heating and cooling costs. LED lights, which use much less power than incandescent bulbs and last longer than current fluorescent models, are sensor-controlled. Extra generated electricity is stored in a prototype accumulator battery of lithium ion cells for later use. The lights, power, heating, and other apps are controlled in a high-tech in-house network with living room TV at the center.
The aim of Panasonic’s energy-saving house is to be carbon neutral in energy usage.
Tesla’s Smart House Could Utilize Panasonic’s Technology
Tesla is currently developing advanced systems that adapt to the needs of the environment with the goal is to bring top quality affordable systems that provide energy efficiency, quality of life, and home security.
Already, smart home system are able to cut electric energy spending by 50%, or in some cases go off-grid using Tesla batteries combined with solar. Lights, air conditioning, and all other appliances are automatically managed, turning on and off, depending on the time of day, temperature, motion sensors, door and window detectors, and electricity rates. Fingerprint scanner and pin lock, video surveillance, night vision camera, motion sensors, SMS alarms, fire and flood sensors are accessed through a phone.
In 2014, Panasonic opened a smart city near Tokyo that is designed to drastically cut CO2 emissions by 70%, reaching to 1990 levels. It will attempt to reduce water usage by 30 percent and achieve 30 percent renewable energy usage. Called the Fujisawa Sustainable Smart Town (SST), the subdivision southwest of Tokyo focuses on solar power and other environmentally friendly technologies.
Together, Tesla and Panasonic may be able to ground ambitious plans for solar-powered systems that charge smart homes and electric cars and make decentralized renewable energy systems that power homes and car a practical reality. “We are excited to expand our partnership with Panasonic as we move towards a combined Tesla and SolarCity,” JB Straubel, Tesla’s chief technical officer and co-founder, said in a statement. “By working together on solar, we will be able to accelerate production of high-efficiency, extremely reliable solar cells and modules at the best cost.”
The Role of the Projected SolarCity Acquisition
The Tesla/ Panasonic collaboration moving forward is contingent on Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity, but shareholders must approve the move. Tesla’s bid to acquire SolarCity has been fraught with corporate governance issues because the boards of both companies are deeply intertwined.
Tesla co-founder Elon Musk’s effort to unite Tesla and SolarCity has been under close scrutiny, given six of the seven directors on Tesla’s board have SolarCity ties and SolarCity’s CEO, Lyndon Rive, is Musk’s first cousin.
SolarCity, among the top installers of residential rooftop solar panels in the U.S., acquired solar manufacturer Silevo in 2014. The transaction gave SolarCity the factory in Buffalo where Panasonic will begin photovoltaic cell and module production. If the SolarCity acquisition is successful, Tesla will use the cells and modules in a solar energy system that will work seamlessly with Powerwall and Powerpack, Tesla’s energy storage products. With the aid of installation, sales, and financing capabilities from SolarCity, Tesla will bring an integrated sustainable energy solution to residential, commercial, and grid-scale customers.
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
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