Investor's Corner
Deeper Tesla, Panasonic ties could lead to a Smart Home future
A growing partnership between Tesla and Panasonic on solar cell production and storage batteries may one day eliminate residential reliance on the power grid and provide the capacity to recharge electric cars each night. However, to secure this collaboration on solar cell and module production, Tesla’s proposed SolarCity acquisition must first be approved by shareholders on November 17, 2016.
In the meantime, Tesla and Panasonic have entered into a non-binding letter of intent under which they will begin collaborating on the manufacturing and production of photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules in Buffalo, New York. The Buffalo facility will become the largest solar panel factory in North America, with expectations to employ 1,460 workers and produce up to 10,000 panels per day.
A blog post on Tesla’s website acknowledged that the continued partnership with Panasonic is an important step in creating fully-integrated energy products for businesses, homeowners, and utilities and furthers Tesla’s mission toward a sustainable energy future.
The Relationship between Tesla and Panasonic
The October 16, 2016 announcement confirmed that this newest collaboration extends the established relationship between Tesla and Panasonic, which includes the production of electric vehicle and grid storage battery cells at Tesla’s Gigafactory outside Sparks, Nevada. The $5 billion Gigafactory will produce batteries for the Model 3 electric car and energy storage products for home and utilities.
“We expect that the collaboration talks will lead to growth of the Tesla and Panasonic relationship,” said Shuuji Okayama, vice president of Panasonic’s Eco Solutions unit.
Battery cell production will begin by late 2016 and is expected to reach full capacity by 2018, producing more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013. In cooperation with Panasonic and other strategic partners, the Gigafactory will produce batteries that have the capacity to drive down the per kilowatt hour (kWh) cost of a battery pack by more than 30 percent. That anticipated cost drop is crucial, as current battery costs are untenable.
Panasonic plans to begin PV cell and module production at the Buffalo facility in 2017, and Tesla intends to provide a long-term purchase commitment for those cells from Panasonic. The Tesla/ Panasonic collaboration could mean that energy from solar panels will be pumped into home storage batteries. No longer would residential home solar systems follow the traditional model of selling back to utilities.
Panasonic’s Future Home
Panasonic demonstrates a ‘PanoHome’ smart home in Malaysia [Source: Panasonic]
The proposed Tesla/ Panasonic collaboration would shift Panasonic’s historic focus from consumer electronics products and onto housing, automotive information systems, and vehicle batteries, which “would be a win” for Panasonic, according to Bloomberg. Panasonic’s transition to the home electric market began in 2009 with its Tokyo Future Home, which features the latest environmental technologies and a few prototypes. The house is designed to aid natural ventilation and cut down on air conditioning. The walls of the house are lined with a thin and efficient insulator that cuts down on heating and cooling costs. LED lights, which use much less power than incandescent bulbs and last longer than current fluorescent models, are sensor-controlled. Extra generated electricity is stored in a prototype accumulator battery of lithium ion cells for later use. The lights, power, heating, and other apps are controlled in a high-tech in-house network with living room TV at the center.
The aim of Panasonic’s energy-saving house is to be carbon neutral in energy usage.
Tesla’s Smart House Could Utilize Panasonic’s Technology
Tesla is currently developing advanced systems that adapt to the needs of the environment with the goal is to bring top quality affordable systems that provide energy efficiency, quality of life, and home security.
Already, smart home system are able to cut electric energy spending by 50%, or in some cases go off-grid using Tesla batteries combined with solar. Lights, air conditioning, and all other appliances are automatically managed, turning on and off, depending on the time of day, temperature, motion sensors, door and window detectors, and electricity rates. Fingerprint scanner and pin lock, video surveillance, night vision camera, motion sensors, SMS alarms, fire and flood sensors are accessed through a phone.
In 2014, Panasonic opened a smart city near Tokyo that is designed to drastically cut CO2 emissions by 70%, reaching to 1990 levels. It will attempt to reduce water usage by 30 percent and achieve 30 percent renewable energy usage. Called the Fujisawa Sustainable Smart Town (SST), the subdivision southwest of Tokyo focuses on solar power and other environmentally friendly technologies.
Together, Tesla and Panasonic may be able to ground ambitious plans for solar-powered systems that charge smart homes and electric cars and make decentralized renewable energy systems that power homes and car a practical reality. “We are excited to expand our partnership with Panasonic as we move towards a combined Tesla and SolarCity,” JB Straubel, Tesla’s chief technical officer and co-founder, said in a statement. “By working together on solar, we will be able to accelerate production of high-efficiency, extremely reliable solar cells and modules at the best cost.”
The Role of the Projected SolarCity Acquisition
The Tesla/ Panasonic collaboration moving forward is contingent on Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity, but shareholders must approve the move. Tesla’s bid to acquire SolarCity has been fraught with corporate governance issues because the boards of both companies are deeply intertwined.
Tesla co-founder Elon Musk’s effort to unite Tesla and SolarCity has been under close scrutiny, given six of the seven directors on Tesla’s board have SolarCity ties and SolarCity’s CEO, Lyndon Rive, is Musk’s first cousin.
SolarCity, among the top installers of residential rooftop solar panels in the U.S., acquired solar manufacturer Silevo in 2014. The transaction gave SolarCity the factory in Buffalo where Panasonic will begin photovoltaic cell and module production. If the SolarCity acquisition is successful, Tesla will use the cells and modules in a solar energy system that will work seamlessly with Powerwall and Powerpack, Tesla’s energy storage products. With the aid of installation, sales, and financing capabilities from SolarCity, Tesla will bring an integrated sustainable energy solution to residential, commercial, and grid-scale customers.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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