

Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2024 deliveries see 8.5% year-over-year decline
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its first quarter 2024 vehicle production and delivery report. As per the electric vehicle maker, it was able to produce over 433,000 vehicles and deliver approximately 387,000 vehicles in Q1 2024. Tesla also announced that it was able to deploy 4,053 MWh of energy storage products in the first quarter, a new record for the company.
During Q1 2024, Tesla produced a total of 433,371 vehicles, comprised of 412,376 Model 3 and Model Y and 20,995 other models. Total deliveries were at 386,810 units, comprised of 369,783 Model 3 and Model Y and 17,027 other models. Tesla’s Q1 2024 numbers are notably below Wall Street’s estimates of 431,000 vehicles.
Tesla has provided some explanation behind its first quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers, stating that the decline in its volumes was partly due to the early phase of the updated Model 3’s production ramp at the Fremont Factory and factory shutdowns at Giga Berlin. For context, Giga Berlin saw unexpected production shutdowns due to shipping diversions resulting from the Red Sea conflict, as well as an arson attack by eco-terrorists last month.
As noted by Wall Street veteran Gary Black of The Future Fund, LLC, Tesla deliveries showed an 8.5% year-over-year decline — its first since the Covid pandemic in the second quarter of 2020. Black also noted that Wall Street analysts would likely reduce their volume and earnings per share estimates for the full-year 2024 due to Tesla’s Q1 vehicle production and delivery results.
For context, Tesla produced a total of 440,808 vehicles in Q1 2023, comprised of 421,371 Model 3 and Model Y and 19,437 Model S and Model X. Tesla also delivered a total of 422,875 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, comprised of 412,180 Model 3 and Model Y and 10,695 Model S and Model X.
Tesla stock has dropped on Tuesday’s premarket following the release of the company’s Q1 2024 vehicle production and delivery report. As of writing, TSLA stock is down 6.10% at $164.54 per share.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.cDon ‘t give us a heads up.
Investor's Corner
Wall Street firm makes shock move for Tesla Q3 delivery prediction
“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.”

A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.
Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.
There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.
🚨 Wall Street firm UBS lifted its Q3 delivery forecast for Tesla $TSLA to 475,000 units from 431,000 units.
UBS believes there will be “strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of… pic.twitter.com/lKmvvvi3Hl
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 23, 2025
Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.
With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.
Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules
UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”
The firm continued:
“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.”
If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.
Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.
For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho raises Tesla (TSLA) price target on stronger 2026 outlook
Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

Mizuho Securities has lifted its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $450 from $375, citing a more optimistic view of the electric vehicle market in 2026.
The firm stated that potential tariff headwinds appear less severe than earlier expected, while EV production volumes are trending higher across major automakers. Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.
Mizuho’s take
Mizuho analysts now forecast Tesla will deliver about 1.91 million vehicles in 2026, slightly down from their previous estimate of 1.95 million but still above Wall Street consensus. The firm pointed to Tesla’s planned lower-cost “Model 2” and potential Robotaxi launches as key drivers for growth over the next two years.
“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho, wrote in a research note.
The note also highlighted Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package and his $1 billion stock purchase, which Mizuho believes could align incentives with Tesla’s long-term projects, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. These include advancing autonomous driving technology and pushing development of humanoid robots, both of which remain central to Musk’s vision of the company’s future.
Similar insights
Mizuho is not the only firm that has cited Tesla’s long-term projects and the company’s leadership position in the AI and auto sector. In a recent note, Piper Sandler highlighted that despite the growing number of legitimate competitors for Tesla in places like China, the company still has a foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.
Piper Sandler also noted that competitors still look to Tesla for advancements in real-world AI applications. “Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,,” the firm noted.
Investor's Corner
Piper Sandler raises Tesla (TSLA) target after China trip, cites robotics leadership
Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.

Piper Sandler boosted its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $500 from $400, maintaining an “Overweight” rating after a research trip to China.
The firm cited Tesla’s leadership in artificial intelligence and robotics as central to its thesis, even as Chinese electric vehicle makers grow more competitive. Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.
A China visit
During its visit, Piper Sandler met with several Chinese EV manufacturers, many of which are vertically integrated and expanding rapidly. Analysts noted that these “fast followers” represent Tesla’s most significant competitive challenge. However, executives from multiple companies acknowledged Tesla’s foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, TipRanks stated in a report.
One automaker told Piper Sandler that “without Tesla going from 0 to 1, we can’t go from 1 to 100,” highlighting the Elon Musk-led company’s enduring influence. Analysts said the remarks reflect both admiration and dependence on Tesla’s early innovations, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.
Tesla’s leadership
Piper Sandler’s report emphasized that while Chinese automakers are formidable in design and production, they look to Tesla for advancements in “real-world” AI applications. Tesla’s focus on autonomous driving and robotics continues to distinguish it from competitors, making the company Piper Sandler’s top investment idea in this space.
“Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,” Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter stated in a note.
Piper Sandler also shared some of its expectations for Tesla this year, stating that it is estimating that the company will delivery ~495k vehicles this third-quarter, possibly attaining a new all-time record. The firm, however, stated that its 2026 outlook for Tesla is shakier, as the EV maker could just hit ~1.9 million units, which could include as many as 350k affordable “Model 2” vehicles.
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla is improving this critical feature in older vehicles
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla launches MultiPass to simplify charging at non-Tesla stations
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla is bailing out Canadian automakers once again: here’s how
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
-
Investor's Corner2 weeks ago
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
-
News2 weeks ago
This signature Tesla feature is facing a ban in one of its biggest markets
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla looks to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla China’s new six-seat Model Y L already sold out through October