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Tesla’s Q1 delivery results highlight the need for a Model S and Model X update
One of the most notable takeaways from Tesla’s Q1 2019 vehicle production and deliveries report was the steep decline in Model S and Model X sales. Over the course of the quarter, Tesla produced 14,150 Model S and X, a drastic drop from the 25,000 units that were manufactured last quarter. Deliveries of the flagship sedan and SUV also fell to 12,100 units. Under these circumstances, it appears that the time is now right for Tesla to start preparing for the release of an updated Model S and Model X.
A steep decline
Tesla did not provide a commentary behind the decline in Model S and X sales. This does not mean that the lower production and delivery figures of the vehicles were a complete surprise, as Tesla did shift a lot of its efforts in producing the Model S in favor of the Model 3 in Q1. The vehicles’ entry-level trim, the 75D variant, was also discontinued. Thus, the signs of a decline were already there. What was really surprising was the scope and gravity of the decline.
A possible explanation behind the Model S and Model X’s numbers in the first quarter may lie in the simple fact that the vehicles, particularly the full-size premium sedan, are getting long in the tooth. Tesla started producing the Model S in 2012, and the vehicle has pretty much stayed the same since then, save for a facelift when the Model X was released. Granted, improvements were rolled out to the Model S as soon as they were available, as noted by Elon Musk in a tweet, but design-wise, Tesla’s flagship sedan is still practically competing in the market with a nearly 7-year-old interior and exterior.
The Model 3’s immense success did not help the Model S’ case either. It should be noted that Tesla anti-sold the Model 3 after it was unveiled, with the company and Elon Musk asserting that the Model S was a superior vehicle. Now that the Model 3 is making a mark in several markets across the globe, it is becoming evident that the electric sedan is simply Tesla’s best bang-for-your-buck car. With Tesla’s latest hardware and batteries, the Model 3 is a solid choice. Other Model 3-specific features, such as Track Mode for the Performance variant, add to the vehicle’s attractiveness to car buyers.
The Model 3 is such a solid vehicle that it is starting to make the Model S a harder sell, at least in its present iteration. Granted, the Model S is larger, and it has more bells and whistles such as Smart Air Suspension and a second display, but these are luxuries that a significant number of car buyers will likely be willing to forego in exchange for savings associated with a Model 3 purchase. The Tesla Model Y appears set to do the same to the Model X as well, as the vehicle presents much of the premium SUV’s advantages in a smaller package, at a far more affordable price.
A better Model S and X in the Model 3 era
If Tesla wishes to rekindle the interest and justify the higher prices of its flagship sedan and SUV, it would be a good idea to introduce updated versions of the vehicles as soon as the company is able. These improvements can come in various forms, such as better range, significantly better performance, and a far more exquisite exterior and interior design. With these improvements in place, the Model S and X will not only have the advantage of larger cabin space and a handful of unique features over their more affordable stablemates. They will be vehicles that are truly, without a doubt, a class above the Model 3 (and the Model Y for that matter).
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It’s not like Tesla does not seem to be preparing for a potential Model S and Model X update either. Last year, a patent application emerged depicting a Model S/X dashboard equipped with the Model 3’s clever and acclaimed HVAC system. Panasonic, Tesla’s battery partner, also announced last November that it is doubling down on its partnership with the electric car maker by bringing some of its Japan-based battery cell production activities to the United States.
In a statement to the Nikkei Asian Review, Panasonic stated that it will be bringing its operations that build the Model S and Model X’s 18650 cells over to a “US-based unit starting (next) April (2019).” Elon Musk noted during the Q4 earnings call that there are no plans to change the Model S and Model X’s batteries to 2170 cells. Perhaps improved 18650 cells are in order with Panasonic’s move to the US? One can hope.
At this point in Tesla’s history, it would probably be wise to temper expectations with regards to the Model S and Model X’s quarterly sales. Tesla is now at a point where it is pursuing the mass market, and the company is accomplishing this with the Model 3 (and later, the Model Y). The Model S and Model X will definitely still be the company’s flagships, but they will likely just see a sustained demand of perhaps 25,000 per quarter, and that’s completely fine. Both vehicles were brought to market to prove that electric cars can be better than their gasoline-powered counterparts. Both vehicles already accomplished their mission. The Model 3 and Model Y is proof of that.
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Waymo rider data hints that Tesla’s Cybercab strategy might be the smartest, after all
These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.
Toyota Connected Europe designer Karim Dia Toubajie has highlighted a particular trend that became evident in Waymo’s Q3 2025 occupancy stats. As it turned out, 90% of the trips taken by the driverless taxis carried two or fewer passengers.
These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.
Toyota designer observes a trend
Karim Dia Toubajie, Lead Product Designer (Sustainable Mobility) at Toyota Connected Europe, analyzed Waymo’s latest California Public Utilities Commission filings and posted the results on LinkedIn this week.
“90% of robotaxi trips have 2 or less passengers, so why are we using 5-seater vehicles?” Toubajie asked. He continued: “90% of trips have 2 or less people, 75% of trips have 1 or less people.” He accompanied his comments with a graphic showing Waymo’s occupancy rates, which showed 71% of trips having one passenger, 15% of trips having two passengers, 6% of trips having three passengers, 5% of trips having zero passengers, and only 3% of trips having four passengers.
The data excludes operational trips like depot runs or charging, though Toubajie pointed out that most of the time, Waymo’s massive self-driving taxis are really just transporting 1 or 2 people, at times even no passengers at all. “This means that most of the time, the vehicle being used significantly outweighs the needs of the trip,” the Toyota designer wrote in his post.
-->Cybercab suddenly looks perfectly sized
Toubajie gave a nod to Tesla’s approach. “The Tesla Cybercab announced in 2024, is a 2-seater robotaxi with a 50kWh battery but I still believe this is on the larger side of what’s required for most trips,” he wrote.
With Waymo’s own numbers now proving 90% of demand fits two seats or fewer, the wheel-less, lidar-free Cybercab now looks like the smartest play in the room. The Cybercab is designed to be easy to produce, with CEO Elon Musk commenting that its product line would resemble a consumer electronics factory more than an automotive plant. This means that the Cybercab could saturate the roads quickly once it is deployed.
While the Cybercab will likely take the lion’s share of Tesla’s ride-hailing passengers, the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover would be perfect for the remaining 9% of riders who require larger vehicles. This should be easy to implement for Tesla, as the Model Y and Model 3 are both mass-market vehicles.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk and James Cameron find middle ground in space and AI despite political differences
Musk responded with some positive words for the director on X.
Avatar director James Cameron has stated that he can still agree with Elon Musk on space exploration and AI safety despite their stark political differences.
In an interview with Puck’s The Town podcast, the liberal director praised Musk’s SpaceX achievements and said higher priorities must unite them, such as space travel and artificial intelligence. Musk responded with some positive words for the director on X.
A longtime mutual respect
Cameron and Musk have bonded over technology for years. As far back as 2011, Cameron told NBC News that “Elon is making very strong strides. I think he’s the likeliest person to step into the shoes of the shuttle program and actually provide human access to low Earth orbit. So… go, Elon.” Cameron was right, as SpaceX would go on to become the dominant force in spaceflight over the years.
Even after Musk’s embrace of conservative politics and his roles as senior advisor and former DOGE head, Cameron refused to cancel his relationship with the CEO. “I can separate a person and their politics from the things that they want to accomplish if they’re aligned with what I think are good goals,” Cameron said. Musk appreciated the director’s comments, stating that “Jim understands physics, which is rare in Hollywood.”
Shared AI warnings
Both men have stated that artificial intelligence could be an existential threat to humanity, though Musk has noted that Tesla’s products such as Optimus could usher in an era of sustainable abundance. Musk recently predicted that money and jobs could become irrelevant with advancing AI, while Cameron warned of a deeper crisis, as noted in a Fox News report.
-->“Because the overall risk of AI in general… is that we lose purpose as people. We lose jobs. We lose a sense of, ‘Well, what are we here for?’” Cameron said. “We are these flawed biological machines, and a computer can be theoretically more precise, more correct, faster, all of those things. And that’s going to be a threshold existential issue.”
He concluded: “I just think it’s important for us as a human civilization to prioritize. We’ve got to make this Earth our spaceship. That’s really what we need to be thinking.”
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Blue Origin announces Super-Heavy New Glenn 9×4 to Rival SpaceX Starship
The announcement followed the company’s successful NG-2 launch on November 13.
Blue Origin has revealed plans to develop New Glenn 9×4, a “super heavy” rocket designed to deliver 70 metric tons to low-Earth orbit and directly compete with SpaceX’s Starship.
The announcement followed the company’s successful NG-2 launch on November 13, which deployed NASA’s ESCAPADE (Escape and Plasma Acceleration Dynamics Explorers) Mars mission and landed the first stage.
Upgraded engines and reusability
As noted in a Universe Today report, Blue Origin will roll out upgraded BE-4 engines producing 640,000 lbf each, up from 550,000 lbf, starting with NG-3. This should boost the New Glenn rocket’s total first-stage thrust to 4.5 million pounds. Upper-stage BE-3U engines are expected to improve from 320,000 lbf to 400,000 lbf over the next few flights as well.
“These enhancements will immediately benefit customers already manifested on New Glenn to fly to destinations including low-Earth orbit, the Moon, and beyond. Additional vehicle upgrades include a reusable fairing to support increased flight rates, an updated lower-cost tank design, and a higher-performing and reusable thermal protection system to improve turnaround time,” Blue Origin noted.
New Glenn “Super Heavy” 9×4
The super-heavy New Glenn 9×4, with nine BE-4s on the booster, four BE-3Us on the upper stage, will feature an 8.7-meter payload fairing. Blue Origin expects New Glenn 9×4 to be capable of transporting 70 metric tons to LEO, 14 tons to GSO, and 20 tons to trans-lunar injection, as noted by the company in a blog post. This is very impressive, as New Glenn 9×4’s capacity exceeds Falcon Heavy, SpaceX’s largest rocket available to consumers today. Falcon Heavy is capable of carrying up to 64 metric tons to low Earth orbit in a fully expendable configuration.
-->That being said, SpaceX’s Starship’s capacity is extremely impressive. As per SpaceX, Starship is designed to be capable of carrying up to 100-150 metric tonnes to orbit in its fully reusable configuration. At its expendable configuration, Starship’s capacity enters unheard-of territory, with SpaceX stating that the vehicle could transport 250 metric tonnes of cargo.
Waymo rider data hints that Tesla’s Cybercab strategy might be the smartest, after all
Elon Musk and James Cameron find middle ground in space and AI despite political differences
