Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 deliveries: Was it a beat or a miss?
Tesla reported its Q3 delivery figures this morning, with 462,890 vehicles making their way to customers throughout the three-month span. However, conflicting reports of a delivery beat or a delivery miss are circulating, but what’s the real answer?
It truly depends on who you ask.
A beat or a miss on deliveries is all based on what is reported vs. Wall Street consensus. Leading up to the delivery announcement this morning, Tesla’s Investor Relations reported that Wall Street consensus was put at 461,798, rounded up to 462,000.
Other outlets reported 460,000 and 461,000.
Tesla reports 462,890 deliveries for Q3 with a strong quarter for energy
This was based on the outlook of 28 different firms and last week, reports circulated that the Wall Street consensus was 462,000, which aligned with what Tesla said in its IR communication.
Tesla IR consensus was 462k pic.twitter.com/qAiJTiNpS2
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 2, 2024
However, those numbers shifted this morning despite no additional firms putting out estimates for Tesla’s third quarter. The consensus number suddenly shifted to 463,000, meaning Tesla’s reported delivery figures would have gone from a slight beat to a slight miss.
Even Ives, who is bullish on Tesla, had his consensus figures shift this morning. Last week in a note, he wrote:
“Next week, Tesla is expected to announce its 3Q deliveries, which we believe will come in above the Street’s 462k unit bogey with whisper numbers around the 465k – 470k range.”
Ives had a different consensus figure this morning, according to a note released after deliveries were reported:
“Tesla just announced 3Q deliveries of 462.9k coming in-line with the Street’s 463.3k estimate and was below Street whisper numbers in the range of 465-470k.”
However, the delivery figures, on either end of the spectrum, are in line with estimates.
Ives wrote in a note this morning that the number Tesla reported was “in-line” with Wall Street, meaning no true upside but a step in the right direction:
“The 463k number we would characterize as good and a step in the right direction but clearly we and the Street were hoping for 3k-5k upside to this number and we will see some pressure on shares this morning as investors walk away from delivery numbers expecting more. Overall, this is a clear improvement from 1H and we believe getting in the range of 1.8 million for the year is still the key and important bogey.”
One thing is for sure: Tesla is still fighting to offset its planned slowdown in annual growth due to its focus on the next-gen platform.
We might not see the 2 million mark for another year or two, but keeping demand up with updated vehicle designs, like the Model 3 Highland, and a more affordable Single-Motor Cybertruck planned for 2025 could keep things interesting, potentially helping to stall the outlook that the true growth phase prior to the Robotaxi rollout is over.
Tesla will rely on a strong Q4, along with its Robotaxi unveiling event to keep things bullish through the remainder of 2024.
I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.