

Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 deliveries: Was it a beat or a miss?
Tesla reported its Q3 delivery figures this morning, with 462,890 vehicles making their way to customers throughout the three-month span. However, conflicting reports of a delivery beat or a delivery miss are circulating, but what’s the real answer?
It truly depends on who you ask.
A beat or a miss on deliveries is all based on what is reported vs. Wall Street consensus. Leading up to the delivery announcement this morning, Tesla’s Investor Relations reported that Wall Street consensus was put at 461,798, rounded up to 462,000.
Other outlets reported 460,000 and 461,000.
Tesla reports 462,890 deliveries for Q3 with a strong quarter for energy
This was based on the outlook of 28 different firms and last week, reports circulated that the Wall Street consensus was 462,000, which aligned with what Tesla said in its IR communication.
Tesla IR consensus was 462k pic.twitter.com/qAiJTiNpS2
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 2, 2024
However, those numbers shifted this morning despite no additional firms putting out estimates for Tesla’s third quarter. The consensus number suddenly shifted to 463,000, meaning Tesla’s reported delivery figures would have gone from a slight beat to a slight miss.
Even Ives, who is bullish on Tesla, had his consensus figures shift this morning. Last week in a note, he wrote:
“Next week, Tesla is expected to announce its 3Q deliveries, which we believe will come in above the Street’s 462k unit bogey with whisper numbers around the 465k – 470k range.”
Ives had a different consensus figure this morning, according to a note released after deliveries were reported:
“Tesla just announced 3Q deliveries of 462.9k coming in-line with the Street’s 463.3k estimate and was below Street whisper numbers in the range of 465-470k.”
However, the delivery figures, on either end of the spectrum, are in line with estimates.
Ives wrote in a note this morning that the number Tesla reported was “in-line” with Wall Street, meaning no true upside but a step in the right direction:
“The 463k number we would characterize as good and a step in the right direction but clearly we and the Street were hoping for 3k-5k upside to this number and we will see some pressure on shares this morning as investors walk away from delivery numbers expecting more. Overall, this is a clear improvement from 1H and we believe getting in the range of 1.8 million for the year is still the key and important bogey.”
One thing is for sure: Tesla is still fighting to offset its planned slowdown in annual growth due to its focus on the next-gen platform.
We might not see the 2 million mark for another year or two, but keeping demand up with updated vehicle designs, like the Model 3 Highland, and a more affordable Single-Motor Cybertruck planned for 2025 could keep things interesting, potentially helping to stall the outlook that the true growth phase prior to the Robotaxi rollout is over.
Tesla will rely on a strong Q4, along with its Robotaxi unveiling event to keep things bullish through the remainder of 2024.
I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Shareholder group urges Nasdaq probe into Elon Musk’s Tesla 2025 CEO Interim Award
The SOC Investment Group represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members, many of whom hold shares in TSLA.

An investment group is urging Nasdaq to investigate Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) over its recent $29 billion equity award for CEO Elon Musk.
The SOC Investment Group, which represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members—many of whom hold shares in TSLA—sent a letter to the exchange citing “serious concerns” that the package sidestepped shareholder approval and violated compensation rules.
Concerns over Tesla’s 2025 CEO Interim Award
In its August 19 letter to Nasdaq enforcement chief Erik Wittman, SOC alleged that Tesla’s board improperly granted Musk a “2025 CEO Interim Award” under the company’s 2019 Equity Incentive Plan. That plan, the group noted, explicitly excluded Musk when it was approved by shareholders. SOC argued that the new equity grant effectively expanded the plan to cover Musk, a material change that should have required a shareholder vote under Nasdaq rules.
The $29 billion package was designed to replace Musk’s overturned $56 billion award from 2018, which the Delaware Chancery Court struck down, prompting Tesla to file an appeal to the Delaware Supreme Court. The interim award contains restrictions: Musk must remain in a leadership role until August 2027, and vested shares cannot be sold until 2030, as per a Yahoo Finance report.
Even so, critics such as SOC have argued that the plan does not have of performance targets, calling it a “fog-the-mirror” award. This means that “If you’re around and have enough breath left in you to fog the mirror, you get them,” stated Brian Dunn, the director of the Institute for Comprehension Studies at Cornell University.
SOC’s Tesla concerns beyond Elon Musk
SOC’s concerns extend beyond the mechanics of Musk’s pay. The group has long questioned the independence of Tesla’s board, opposing the reelection of directors such as Kimbal Musk and James Murdoch. It has also urged regulators to review Tesla’s governance practices, including past proposals to shrink the board.
SOC has also joined initiatives calling for Tesla to adopt comprehensive labor rights policies, including noninterference with worker organizing and compliance with global labor standards. The investment group has also been involved in webinars and resolutions highlighting the risks related to Tesla’s approach to unions, as well as labor issues across several countries.
Tesla has not yet publicly responded to SOC’s latest letter, nor to requests for comment.
The SOC’s letter can be viewed below.
Investor's Corner
Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise
All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.
This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.
Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon
The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.
The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.
It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.
Delivery Wait Time Increases
Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.
This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.
Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.
More People are Ordering
A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:
Anecdotally, I’ve been getting more DMs from people ordering Teslas in the past few days than I have in the last couple of years. As expected, the end of the U.S. EV credit next month is driving a big surge in orders.
Lease prices are rising for the 3/Y, delivery wait times are… pic.twitter.com/Y6JN3w2Gmr
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 13, 2025
It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.
Why Investors Could Be Surprised
Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.
We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.
Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.
Elon Musk
Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note
Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.
In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.
A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when
However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.
Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.
Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.
Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”
Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.
Jewsikow said:
“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”
He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.
Jewsikow added:
“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”
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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.
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