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Tesla Q3 deliveries: Was it a beat or a miss?

Credit: diagnosticdennis/Instagram and @smile__no via Tesla Owners of Santa Clarita Valley/X

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Tesla reported its Q3 delivery figures this morning, with 462,890 vehicles making their way to customers throughout the three-month span. However, conflicting reports of a delivery beat or a delivery miss are circulating, but what’s the real answer?

It truly depends on who you ask.

A beat or a miss on deliveries is all based on what is reported vs. Wall Street consensus. Leading up to the delivery announcement this morning, Tesla’s Investor Relations reported that Wall Street consensus was put at 461,798, rounded up to 462,000.

Other outlets reported 460,000 and 461,000.

Tesla reports 462,890 deliveries for Q3 with a strong quarter for energy

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This was based on the outlook of 28 different firms and last week, reports circulated that the Wall Street consensus was 462,000, which aligned with what Tesla said in its IR communication.

However, those numbers shifted this morning despite no additional firms putting out estimates for Tesla’s third quarter. The consensus number suddenly shifted to 463,000, meaning Tesla’s reported delivery figures would have gone from a slight beat to a slight miss.

Even Ives, who is bullish on Tesla, had his consensus figures shift this morning. Last week in a note, he wrote:

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“Next week, Tesla is expected to announce its 3Q deliveries, which we believe will come in above the Street’s 462k unit bogey with whisper numbers around the 465k – 470k range.”

Ives had a different consensus figure this morning, according to a note released after deliveries were reported:

“Tesla just announced 3Q deliveries of 462.9k coming in-line with the Street’s 463.3k estimate and was below Street whisper numbers in the range of 465-470k.”

However, the delivery figures, on either end of the spectrum, are in line with estimates.

Ives wrote in a note this morning that the number Tesla reported was “in-line” with Wall Street, meaning no true upside but a step in the right direction:

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“The 463k number we would characterize as good and a step in the right direction but clearly we and the Street were hoping for 3k-5k upside to this number and we will see some pressure on shares this morning as investors walk away from delivery numbers expecting more. Overall, this is a clear improvement from 1H and we believe getting in the range of 1.8 million for the year is still the key and important bogey.”

One thing is for sure: Tesla is still fighting to offset its planned slowdown in annual growth due to its focus on the next-gen platform.

We might not see the 2 million mark for another year or two, but keeping demand up with updated vehicle designs, like the Model 3 Highland, and a more affordable Single-Motor Cybertruck planned for 2025 could keep things interesting, potentially helping to stall the outlook that the true growth phase prior to the Robotaxi rollout is over.

Tesla will rely on a strong Q4, along with its Robotaxi unveiling event to keep things bullish through the remainder of 2024.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

Investor's Corner

Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

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The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

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Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

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(Credit: Tesla)

Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days. 

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

Benchmark’s estimates

Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.

“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.

Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.

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Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds

Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.

“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk slams ING Deutschland for denying TSLA shareholders ability to vote

Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X. 

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk has slammed ING Deutschland after the bank confirmed that it was not offering a way for clients to vote in the upcoming 2025 Tesla Annual Shareholders Meeting.

Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X. 

Musk’s criticism

Musk’s criticism of ING Deutschland came as a response to the bank’s comment to a Tesla shareholder. The shareholder, Maximilian Auer, noted that he has not received a response from the German bank’s customer support on how he could vote with his TSLA shares. In response to the Auer’s comment, ING Deutschland confirmed that it does not offer such a service.

“We do not offer the proxy voting process or the transmission of a control number. There is no legal obligation to do so for general meetings under foreign law,” ING Deutschland wrote in its post.

The firm’s reply received a lot of criticism from users on X, with many stating that such comments could drive clients away. Elon Musk later weighed in with some strong words of his own, stating that the bank is effectively denying shareholders the ability to vote. “Denying shareholders the ability to vote, as you are doing, certainly should be a crime,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Tesla’s annual meeting

Tesla’s upcoming annual meeting this year is particularly important as shareholders are voting on the approval of Elon Musk’s new CEO performance award. The pay package, which could pave the way for Musk to become a trillionaire, is also designed to increase his stake in the electric vehicle maker to 25%. This, Musk stated, should prevent activist shareholder advisory firms to disrupt the company.

Tesla highlighted the importance of this year’s annual meeting in a post on X. 

“We pay for outstanding performance – not for promises. In 2018, shareholders approved a groundbreaking CEO Performance Award that delivered extraordinary value. At our Annual Meeting on November 6, Tesla shareholders can vote on a pay-for-performance plan designed to drive our next era of transformational growth and value creation. Seven years ago, Elon Musk had to deliver billions to shareholders – now it’s trillions.

“This plan creates a path for Elon to secure voting rights and will retain him as a leader of the company for many years to come. But as explained below, Elon only receives voting rights after he has delivered economic value to you. Your vote matters. Vote ‘FOR’ Proposal 4!” Tesla wrote in its post on X. 

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