Investor's Corner
Tesla starts recruitment efforts in China as details on first Shanghai site emerge
Reports have emerged that Tesla has started its recruitment efforts in China. The news comes less than a week after a business license was granted to Tesla Motors Hong Kong Co., LLC, the electric car maker’s HK division, to operate and establish a solely-owned facility in the country.
Tesla’s hiring efforts started on May 16, with the company’s official WeChat account posting job listings for a Tesla facility in Shanghai. Among the positions listed in by the company were project managers, tax commissioners, government affairs managers, financial service area managers, low-voltage electrical test engineers, and IT field system administrators.
As noted in a report from Sohu, a local news agency, Tesla Motors HK’s recently-granted business license lists the company’s address as No. 168 Tonghui Road, Nanhui New Town, which is in the same area as the Shanghai Lingang Industrial Service Center. A field reporter from the news agency visited Tesla’s listed site on May 15, but so far, it appears that construction is yet to take place on the location.
The plot of land listed at Tesla Motors HK’s business license. [Credit: Sohu News]
Tesla’s registered capital for its first Shanghai site is listed at 100 million yuan, which corresponds to $15.8 million. Interestingly, the industrial and commercial information outlined in the business scope of Tesla’s first Shanghai site does not mention the production of battery modules or electric vehicles. As noted in a report from JQK News, the facility would instead be involved in the “technical development, technical services, technical consulting, technology transfer in the field of electric vehicles and parts, batteries, energy storage equipment, and photovoltaic products.” The facility will also be providing “supporting services, electric vehicle demonstration, and product promotion.”
Overall, it appears that Tesla’ first Shanghai facility will not be the company’s Gigafactory that Elon Musk teased during the Q1 2018 earnings call. The factory, which Musk said would produce both battery modules and vehicles, is expected to manufacture the upcoming Model Y crossover SUV, as well as some of the Model 3. As noted by Chinese business news agency EastMoney.com, the listed location in Tesla Motors HK’s business license is simply far too limited to accommodate Tesla’s factory.
Speculations are emerging about the location of the China Gigafactory, however. On May 15, a report from the China Securities Net was released, citing informed sources who reported that Tesla had begun work on a factory in Shanghai. The alleged location of the factory, according to the sources, was a piece of land adjacent to the seashore along the seawall of Lingang. According to a local news reporter who visited the site, the location did not show prominent signs of construction, though several heavy equipment were parked in the area. A worker who was on the site noted that they were instructed to raise the plot of land. The worker, however, did not mention Tesla.
A factory in China is a pertinent part of Tesla’s goals for expansion. During the company’s Q3 2017 earnings call last November, Musk stated that having a factory in China is “really the only way to make cars affordable” in the country, which hosts one of the most lucrative markets for electric vehicles. Musk mentioned Tesla’s China facility in the Q4 2017 earnings call as well, when he teased that capital investments related to the Model Y will likely be made this year.
Overall, it was China’s pledge to cut import tariffs and remove ownership restrictions for foreign carmakers operating in the country that seems to have pushed the company’s foray into the Asian economic superpower further. Before China softened its stance on foreign automakers like Tesla, Musk likened its initiatives in the country to “competing in an Olympic race wearing lead shoes.”
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
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