Investor's Corner
Tesla registers 5170 new Model 3 VINs as online tracker hits 20k milestone
In what appears to be another record batch, Tesla has registered 5,170 new Model 3 VINs. The news comes as Bloomberg’s online production tracker displayed yet another milestone, suggesting that the 20,000th Model 3 has been manufactured by Tesla.
News of the new batch of VIN registrations came on Monday, with Twitter’s Model 3 watchdog account @Model3VINs posting the update on its official page. According to the group, the highest VIN of Tesla’s Model 3 line now stands at 33,466, suggesting that a ramp is happening in the Fremont factory.
#Tesla registered 5,170 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 33466. https://t.co/3cJojvzlRv
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) April 23, 2018
Just recently, a leaked email from Elon Musk to his employees suggested that the Model 3 line is shifting to a 24/7 schedule in order to raise its production output. According to Musk’s email, the Model 3 line would be stopping for a few days in order to roll out a “comprehensive set of upgrades” which would allow the company to start hitting the 3,000-4,000 a week mark. This, however, would just be the beginning.
-->Musk’s leaked email further teased another planned shutdown sometime in May, in order to implement yet another set of upgrades for the Model 3 production line. The enhancements on May would enable Tesla to “unlock” a production capacity of up to 6,000 vehicles per week. Musk further noted in his message to employees that the company would be targeting a rate of 6,000 Model 3 per week by June instead, to provide a margin of error from the original 5,000-a-week goal.
Apart from the more than 5,000 new Model 3 VINs that Tesla recently filed, another apparent sign of a production ramp is the current status of Bloomberg’s online tracker. Over the past weeks, the publication’s tracker, which utilizes data from US government sources, social media reports, and direct communication with Tesla owners, has shown a notable uptick in the pace of the Model 3 line.
Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker as of 4/23/2018. [Credit: Bloomberg]
Just recently, the tracker hit yet another milestone, breaching the 20,000-mark. As of Monday morning, the online tracker estimates that Tesla has produced 20,014 Model 3 so far, with a production rate of 2,616 vehicles per week.
Overall, a ramp in the production of the Model 3 at this point would be a statement for the Elon Musk-led company. Tesla, after all, is battling naysayers from all sides, many of which are doubting the company’s ability to raise the Model 3’s production to 5,000 a week by the end of the second quarter. Among this is Goldman Sachs, which suggested in a recent analyst note that Tesla would only sustain a pace of about 1,400 Model 3 per week this quarter.
Last week, however, Morgan Stanley adopted a friendlier stance on the electric car maker. In a note, the firm’s analysts led by Adam Jonas maintained their Neutral rating on Tesla’s stocks. The Morgan Stanley team, however, slightly lowered their price target from $379 to $376 per share.
As of writing, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is trading down 1.55% at $285.77 per share.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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