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The Tesla Semi will shake the trucking industry to its roots
Elon Musk’s new Master Plan calls for an expansion of its vehicles into other categories, including buses and heavy duty trucks, both of which will unveiled in about a year. Undoubtedly, carbon emissions worldwide would fall precipitously if the general automobile consumer transitioned to a tailpipe-free electric Tesla, but that’s not what Elon Musk is after. His goal is a full frontal assault on carbon emissions of all kinds including a Tesla Semi. His objective is for nothing less than a world that no longer uses fossil fuels to power its transportation system, even on a commercial scale.
Looking back at the Volkswagen diesel scandal and why it was significant, beyond morality, diesel engines especially heavy-duty diesel trucks spew emissions on another level. To make the problem worse, passenger cars normally have a useful life of around 200,000 miles. Diesel powered tractors can be on the road for a decade or more, spewing out toxins for millions of miles before they are replaced. The pollution control systems on older trucks are rudimentary at best.
In Southern California, the pollution from drayage trucks that haul shipping containers from ports to inland distribution centers is so bad, it has sparked a number of plans to replace them with electric versions. One solution proposed by Siemens calls for equipping trucks with pantographs so they can draw electricity from overhead wires along their routes.
Former Tesla executive Ian Wright sold his stock in Tesla Motors when Elon Musk came on board. Wright wanted to attack the challenges of truck pollution rather than build some silly sports car. He has since created his own company called Wrightspeed that focuses on cleaning up the emissions from heavy duty garbage trucks. He has invented a new form of hybrid powertrain that uses a small gas turbine to recharge the batteries. The turbine is so clean, it doesn’t even need a catalytic converter to meet California’s stringent emissions rules.
The problem with electric trucks today is that the batteries need to be so large and heavy they would take up much of the space available for hauling freight. Not only that, they would be prohibitively expensive. The Wrightspeed system is a compromise that attempts to strike a balance between cost and range. It has attracted international attention and the company has recently signed a contract to re-power a fleet of diesel buses in New Zealand.
The allure of electric trucks has created an opportunity for hucksters and charlatans. Earlier this year, a Florida company calling itself Oakridge Global Energy Solutions said it had developed a battery for Freedom Trucking of Minneapolis that would haul an 80,000 lb. load 400 miles. That claim turned out to be vaporware.
Another entrant into the heavy truck sweepstakes is a company calling itself Nikola Motors — a rather obvious attempt to somehow conflate what it is doing with the work of Tesla Motors. It says its Nikola One tractor will have 2,000 horsepower. 3,700 lb-ft of torque, a 325 kWh battery, 6 wheel drive with torque vectoring and 1,200 miles of range. It relies on an onboard natural gas turbine to keep the battery charged while driving.
The design concept for the Nikola One is visually appealing and the company says it has 7,000 pre-orders for the truck worth a total of $2.3 billion. Of course, it currently has no factory, no battery factory, and little corporate infrastructure other than its website.
We can assume the Tesla Semi will not have a range extender engine of any type. How Tesla will make an electric tractor that can haul heavy loads long distances that is cost competitive remains unclear. But if Elon says that’s what Tesla will do, we can be pretty sure it will — eventually.
JB Straubel says he and Elon talked about electric airplanes long before they decided to build automobiles. And ocean going cargo vessels are some of the worst polluters on the face of the planet. Musk probably has a plan for them, too. Look for those ideas to be part of Master Plan Numero Tres.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
