Investor's Corner
Tesla sets record vehicle production, $2.7 billion revenue, Model 3 on track for July production
Tesla released its first quarter 2017 earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, surprising Wall Street with record production, delivery and revenue numbers. The electric car maker reported revenue of $2.7 billion in GAAP revenue, with $2.28 billion from automotive revenue. The GAAP net loss was $2.04, with non-GAAP loss of $1.33 a share, much larger than expected. This quarter compares well with Q4’16, when TSLA surprised Wall Street after posting a fourth quarter earnings loss of 69 cents a share, and revenue of $2.28 billion. The complete text of the Tesla First Quarter 2017 Update letter can be seen at the end of this article.
Revenue
In the letter, Tesla announced that “Q1 GAAP and Non-GAAP loss from operations improved from Q4.” As in the previous quarter, the estimates between analysts varied widely. According to a consensus poll with analysts conducted by FactSet, Tesla was expected to report a GAAP loss $1.15 a share in the quarter compared with a loss of $2.13 a share in the year-ago period, and an adjusted loss for one-time items of 83 cents. Estimize, a crowdsourcing platforms that polls analysts, hedge-fund managers executives and others, expected a loss of just 17 cents a share. E*trade provided its usual estimate range from its poll of analysts: 0.230 | -0.812 | -1.690 (High | Mean | Low), also with an average of about 82 cents.
Model 3
Many analysts have suggested that eyes would be focused intensely on Tesla’s upcoming milestones, particularly its progress on its Model 3 sedan. In the letter, Tesla announced that “Model 3 vehicle development is nearly complete as we approach the start of production. Release Candidate vehicles, built using production-intent tooling and processes, are being tested to assess fit and finish, to support vehicle software development and to ensure a smooth and predictable homologation process. Road testing is also underway to refine driving dynamics and ensure vehicle durability.” Additionally, “simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.” 
The company also reported record high orders in Q1 for its Model S and X vehicles. The big run up to the stock in 2017 started when Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries, just over 25,000, on the high end of expectations. Investors will be listening for additional information about the status of the Model 3 manufacturing during the First Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call scheduled for 2:30 pm PT today. The run up of the stock is also due to the fact that many on Wall Street believe that Tesla has worked out some of its manufacturing kinks and is on track to start delivering to employees the first few Model 3 sedans in July, as promised.
Cash
In the letter, Tesla announced that “Q4 to Q1 cash increased by over $4 billion. Cash at the end of Q4 2016 was $3.4 billion. Tesla raised more capital in the quarter with its March $1.5B Offering of Common Stock and Convertible Senior Notes.
TSLA Stock
Tesla shares have been going though the roof, up 80% to a record close of $322.83 on Monday, since the December low when they closed at $181.47. The past three weeks has experienced a string of record highs and the stock has traded above $300 for the better part of April, with an intra-day high of $327.66 on Monday. From a technical perspective, the sky is the limit, and while the shares have been overbought since the beginning of the year when they were trading at $214, there does not seem to be any bad news that can stop the stock from going up. This week TSLA market cap, again, topped GM as the most valuable car maker in the US with a value of over $52B vs. GM’s $50B.
While TSLA stock has soared, traders short selling TSLA have lost $3.7B in 2017, far more than has been lost shorting any other U.S. stock. This is more than the combined losses of short sellers in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX), according to financial analytics firm S3 Financial Partners. Short bets against TSLA have grown to $10.1B from $8.7B at the start of April, when the more recent TSLA run started. “Momentum” traders are riding TSLA stock up and making incredible returns, especially on options, while “fundamental” traders hold onto their shorts and actually continue to build on them, hoping that the shoe will eventually drop.
As reported by Reuters in “Einhorn, nursing losses on Tesla, says investors ‘hypnotized’ by Musk”, hedge fund manager David Einhorn said on Wednesday that “Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital hedge fund bet against Tesla shares during the first three months of year, racking up losses on its short position. Greenlight did not disclose its current position on Tesla.” Unfortunately for David and other short sellers, barring a delay on delivery of Model 3, the momentum traders may still have the upper hand, at least for the rest of 2017. Today’s session ended up closing 2.55% lower at $310.76. Looking at the extended trading action after the close, the initial reaction to the numbers for Q1 2017 is nil: stock moved to $312. Expect an uneventful opening on Thursday.
Tesla First Quarter 2017 Update http://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017_1Q.pdf
Investor's Corner
Tesla has a Cybercab problem nobody saw coming
Tesla’s Cybercab line now builds robotaxis faster than Tesla can deploy them, Lars Moravy says.
Tesla’s Cybercab line in Texas can now build the two seat robotaxi faster than the company can put it into service, according to Lars Moravy, Tesla’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering. “We don’t run every day because the line can run so fast. It’s currently outpacing our deployments,” Moravy said in a new Cybercab deep dive from Munro Live. “So, it’s a bit of a race right now. Who’s going to go faster? Right now the manufacturing line’s ahead.”
Tesla’s official Robotaxi account shared a Cybercab analysis video on X on Monday, calling it a “Cybercab engineering deep dive.” Moravy’s comments go further than what he told analysts on the Q3 earnings call last week, when he said the Cybercab line’s listed capacity of more than 125,000 units a year undersells what it can actually run.
The tour shows where that speed comes from. Tesla’s unboxed process splits the Cybercab into front, rear, side and center modules that are built and tested on their own before they meet on a short final line. That final line has just 25 fully automated stations, which Tesla’s team estimated is a fifth to a tenth of what a Model Y needs. The full line is about 78% automated, the framing line is already at 100%, and the layout uses roughly 50% less floor space per vehicle. The stated goal is “100% automation in 10 second cycle time,” or one finished Cybercab every 10 seconds.
Tesla also deleted the paint shop. Only the side modules are coated, and the exterior panels get their color inside the molding machine. Engineers said the car is designed to run at least 500,000 miles, which matters for a vehicle that will spend most of its day carrying riders.
The battery got the same treatment. The Cybercab uses an 88S6P pack of 4680 cells in a steel enclosure, a first for Tesla, with each module potted separately so a single failed module can be swapped instead of the whole pack. Wireless battery management boards replace a wiring harness, and new contactors are fast enough to drop the pyro fuse entirely. Tesla’s battery director graded the pack an A minus, compared with a D for the Model Y structural pack and a B minus for Cybertruck. Up front, the drive unit runs an 11:1 gear ratio versus roughly 9:1 on most Teslas, since the Cybercab does not need a high top speed.
Cybercab engineering deep dive — Robotaxi (@robotaxi) October 26, 2026
The deployment side is now the bottleneck Moravy described. Tesla had more than 50 Cybercabs working the Formula 1 weekend in Austin, and Texas records show 463 Cybercabs registered. Tesla said on its earnings call that Cybercab service will launch in Dallas next month, and Moravy said the company is aiming to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of 2026. Every unit built so far has gone into Tesla’s own fleet since the line moved into volume production in April.
Munro Live also asked when it could get a Cybercab to tear down. Tesla’s answer: “Not yet.”
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
Tesla has a Cybercab problem nobody saw coming
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