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Tesla (TSLA) will be larger than 95% of the S&P 500 if it qualifies for the index

Tesla Model Y Production (Credit: Tesla)

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Following the release of its Q2 2020 vehicle delivery and production report, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) seems to have a solid chance at qualifying for the S&P 500. What is rather remarkable is that if Tesla were to qualify for the S&P 500, it would end up being larger than about 95% of the companies currently included in the index. 

Tesla posted over 90,000 vehicle deliveries of the second quarter, far above Wall Street’s consensus of around 74,000 vehicles. Amidst Elon Musk’s leaked email to employees congratulating them for their work during the quarter, as well as the cheeky release of literal Short Shorts as the company’s latest apparel, speculations suggest that the company could very well post another profitable quarter. 

Posting a profit for Q2 2020 would be a milestone for Tesla. By doing so, the company would be able to report a net profit for four straight quarters, a key hurdle that would allow it to qualify for the S&P 500. So far, Tesla has managed to report a net profit in the past three quarters: $143 million in Q3 2019, $105 million in Q4 2019, and $16 million in Q1 2020. 

With its present day price of about $1,400 per share, Tesla’s market cap currently stands at about $250 billion. This makes the electric car maker larger than about 95% of the companies currently included in the S&P 500. Also interesting is that fellow American automakers such as GM and Ford — whose market caps are dwarfed by Tesla — are presently listed in the index. 

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While sentiments are optimistic about Tesla and its potential inclusion in the S&P 500, a S&P Dow Jones spokesperson has declined to comment about any upcoming changes to the index. Tesla, for its part, has been quite silent about the topic as well. 

If Tesla were to qualify for the S&P 500, something remarkable would likely happen. As noted in a Reuters report, actively managed investment funds that benchmark their performance to the S&P 500 will likely end up purchasing TSLA stock. These investment funds typically manage trillions of dollars in additional assets. Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research in Chicago, described such a scenario. 

“Even if you don’t like Tesla and you think it’s overvalued, the fact that it is going into the index would mean trillions of dollars would have some kind of position. As part of their benchmark, portfolio managers would not be able to ignore it,” the research head said. 

Tesla’s potential inclusion into the S&P 500 will likely be determined later this month after the company posts its second quarter financial results and its Q2 2020 earnings call. If Tesla were to post another profitable quarter, it could strongly emphasize the rise of sustainable energy and the end of fossil fuels, a trend that has been described in some circles as the “Tesla Effect.” 

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Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours. 

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk strikes down reports on SpaceX IPO rumors

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Credit: Grok

Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.

The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.

This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.

According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.

The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.

Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.

Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.

SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.

By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.

They’ll have plenty of suitors.

SpaceX just filed for the IPO everyone was waiting for

This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.

As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.

The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.

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Elon Musk

The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building

Tesla and SpaceX may be closer to merging than Wall Street or either company is admitting.

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Elon Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with people close to him, according to CNBC, which cited sources familiar with the conversation. Tesla employees have long expected such a transaction and the topic is openly discussed internally, according to internal sources. With SpaceX is days away from kicking off its Wall Street roadshow for what could be the largest IPO in market history, this would be the first time the company will have public market currency to execute a stock-for-stock deal with Tesla.

The financial logic for a merger would make sense. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX’s IPO target range and Tesla’s current market capitalization. The two companies are already more intertwined than most people realize. SpaceX bought $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack systems for xAI data centers and $131 million worth of Cybertrucks. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which subsequently merged with SpaceX. Past transactions also include Tesla selling solar equipment and parts to SpaceX, and SpaceX helping with Cybertruck materials.

Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI

Musk himself signaled where this was heading in November 2025 when he posted on X, “My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.” Tesla and SpaceX announced a joint semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin called Terafab on the Gigafactory Texas campus, covering two advanced chip factories, with one serving Tesla’s AI needs for vehicles and Optimus robots, the other targeting space-based data centers under SpaceX’s infrastructure vision.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. The mechanics of a deal became possible the moment SpaceX filed its S-1. Legal experts said a merger likely would not spark antitrust issues but would raise concerns among shareholders in each company, with questions around which company would be the parent, how a stock swap would take place, and who determines the appropriate price. Musk holds about 20% of Tesla’s equity but controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power through a super-voting share class, meaning he would largely be negotiating the terms with himself.

Elon Musk explains why he cannot be fired from SpaceX

Not everyone is convinced the timing is imminent. Traders on Kalshi place only 33% odds that a merger will happen before May 2027. The more immediate concern for Tesla shareholders is whether the SpaceX IPO pulls capital and Musk’s attention away from Tesla before any merger consolidates the upside for both.

What is clear is that the structural groundwork is already being laid. The Terafab announcement, the xAI merger, the shared supply chain, the cross-company balance sheet transactions, and now the IPO all point in the same direction. Whether the merger follows in 2027 or later, the two companies are already operating more like divisions of a single entity than independent competitors.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX just filed for the IPO everyone was waiting for

SpaceX filed its public S-1, revealing $18.7 billion in revenue and billions in losses.

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SpaceX-Ax-4-mission-iss-launch-date

SpaceX publicly filed its S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 20, 2026, making its financial details available to the public for the first time ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.

An S-1 is the formal document a company must submit to the SEC before going public. It includes audited financials, risk factors, business descriptions, and how the company plans to use the money it raises. Companies are required to file one before selling shares to the public, and it must be published at least 15 days before the investor roadshow begins. SpaceX had already submitted a confidential draft to the SEC in April, which allowed regulators to review the filing privately before it went public.

The S-1 reveals that SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in consolidated revenue in 2025, driven largely by its Starlink satellite internet division, which posted $11.4 billion in revenue, growing nearly 50% year over year. Despite that growth, the company lost about $4.9 billion in 2025 and has burned through more than $37 billion since its founding.

SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history

A significant portion of those losses trace back to xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, which was recently merged into SpaceX. SpaceX directed roughly 60% of its capital spending in 2025 to its AI division, totaling around $20 billion, yet that division lost billions and grew revenue by only about 22%.

SpaceX plans to list its Class A common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America leading the offering. The dual-class share structure means going public will not meaningfully reduce Musk’s control, as Class B shares he holds carry 10 votes per share compared to one vote for public Class A shares.

The company is targeting a raise of around $75 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever. The investor roadshow is reportedly planned for June 5.

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