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What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives?

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The imminent arrival of the Tesla Model 3 has many existing Model S and Model X owners, future owners and experts asking one question: What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives? The latest video from Teslanomics by Ben Sullins digs into the data behind the issue and comes up with some startling findings along the way.

Current Supercharger State

As any Tesla driver knows, Supercharger stations are often full at popular routes of travel and in metropolitan cities. And depending on the time of day, and day of week, drivers looking to charge up before the next leg of their journey can sometimes come across a long queue of vehicles looking to achieve the same goal. Charge up and go.

To combat the problem, Tesla has implemented idle fees as a way to put financial pressure on drivers that linger at charging stations after they have already finished charging. Tesla also did away with unlimited free lifetime Supercharging, instead limiting all new vehicles sold after January 15, 2017 to 400 kWh per year of Supercharger use which should curb Supercharger congestion. But, there’s another problem just around the corner.

Model 3

Tesla will more than double annual production volumes when Model 3 first arrives and expects to produce 500,000 cars annually by the end of 2018.

In the face of what seems to be an insurmountable challenge, Ben at Teslanomics looked at historic Supercharger stats sourced through TMC in order to get a better idea of what drivers are in for when Model 3 arrives. Ben started the analysis by first finding the number of Tesla vehicles in each area and comparing it to the number of Supercharger stations in that same area. Q1 2015 saw the lowest worldwide vehicle to Supercharger ratio with 27.9 Tesla vehicles per charging stall. Looking at more recent data, Ben reveals that we’re currently at the worst worldwide ratio since the Supercharger network began, at an average of 39.3 Teslas per charger. This represents a 40.9% increase from two years ago.

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Drilling down into US-specific data reveals a Tesla to Supercharger ratio of 48.6. But what’s most frightening is Teslanomic’s reveal that, as it stands now, there are 104.9 Tesla vehicles per Supercharger stall in California. Factoring in CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that first Model 3 deliveries will go to employees who are largely based in California facilities, followed by customers on the West Coast, it’s clear that demand will far outpace Supercharger supply in the very near future.

“there are 104.9 Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles per Supercharger stall in California”

What Can Be Done?

Tesla has said that it is doubling the number of Superchargers and quadrupling the number of destination chargers within its network this year.

While Tesla continues to produce vehicles year after year, the rate of charging network growth should theoretically be proportional to delivery numbers until we reach a saturation point, and demand for public charging stations normalizes.

For a deeper analysis of what’s to come and what needs to be done, check out the following video by Teslanomics. Let us know in our discussion forum if your area is already experiencing a Supercharging Apocalypse, or if you’re expecting something similar when Model 3 makes its way into town.

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I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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People are already finding value in Tesla Robotaxi services

Tesla initially launched its Robotaxi service in Austin, though the company more recently launched it in the Bay Area.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Robotaxi service is still in its earliest days, but some consumers are already finding surprising value in the autonomous ride-hailing system. 

This was hinted at in recent comments on social media platform X. 

Robotaxi Ramp

Tesla initially launched its Robotaxi service in Austin, though the company more recently launched it in the Bay Area. Tesla’s geofence for its Robotaxi service in the Bay Area is massive, covering several times the area that is currently serviced by rival Waymo. 

As noted by the EV community members on social media, going end-to-end in Tesla’s Bay Area geofence would likely take over an hour’s worth of driving. That’s an impressive launch for the Robotaxi service in California, and considering Tesla’s momentum, its California geofence will likely grow substantially in the coming months.

Secret Advantage

As noted by Tesla owner and photographer @billykyle, the Tesla Robotaxi service actually has key advantages for people who travel a lot for their work. As per the Tesla owner, using a Robotaxi service would give back so much of his time considering that he gets about 5-7 shoots per day at times. 

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“I’ve been reflecting on how much of a game changer this is. As a photographer that runs my own business, servicing clients all around the Philadelphia area, I could ditch having a car and let an autonomous vehicle drive me between my 5-7 shoots I have per day. This would give me so much time back to work and message clients,” the photographer wrote in a post on X.

The Tesla owner also noted that the Robotaxi service could also solve issues with parking, as it could be tricky in cities. The Robotaxi service’s driverless nature also avoids the issue of rude and incompetent ride-hailing drivers, which are unfortunately prevalent in services such as Uber and Lyft. Ultimately, just like Unsupervised FSD, Tesla’s Robotaxi service has the potential to reclaim time for consumers. And as anyone in the business sphere would attest, time is ultimately money.

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Tesla Robotaxi and Supercharger Diner are killing a dreaded consumer tradition

Tesla is still just charging strictly for its services–while asking for zero tips.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

Tesla’s Robotaxi service and its newly launched Supercharger Diner are killing a longtime but increasingly dreaded consumer tradition in the United States. Based on videos taken of consumers using the Robotaxi service in the Bay Area, Tesla is still just charging strictly for its services–while asking for zero tips.

Tesla Services with Zero Tips

When Tesla launched the Robotaxi pilot in Austin, users quickly noticed that the company was not allowing riders to leave a tip for the service. If one were to try leaving a tip after a Robotaxi ride, the app simply flashes an image of Tesla’s meme hedgehog mascot with a “Just Kidding” message. 

At the time, this seemed like a small tongue-in-cheek joke from the electric vehicle maker. The initial Robotaxi pilot in Austin was rolled out on a small scale, after all, and some social media users speculated that tipping may eventually just be introduced to the service.

But upon the opening of the Tesla Supercharger Diner, consumers also observed that the facility does not allow tipping. Tesla’s notice is simple: “Gratuity: Tesla covers tipping for staff.” This means that employees who work at the Tesla Diner make enough to not rely on gratuities from consumers. 

And with the launch of the Robotaxi service in the Bay Area, users observed once more that Tesla is still not allowing tipping. This was highlighted by longtime Tesla owner @BLKMDL3, who shared a video of the Tesla Robotaxi app also briefly displaying the hedgehog mascot with a “Just Kidding” message when he tried leaving a tip.

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Out of Control

As noted in a report from The Guardian, tipping has been a longstanding business practice in the United States, were service workers typically make less than the federal minimum wage. With this system in place, service workers end up relying on gratuities to make ends meet. This was understandable, but after the pandemic, tipping culture ended up going out of control.

On platforms such as Reddit, users have also complained about services like Uber asking for large tips for using their services. Consumers have also shared shocking experiences involving some services that ask for tips. These include self-checkout counters, drive-throughs, hotdog stands, drug stores, a bottled water stall at a jazz festival, an airport vending machine, a used bookstore, a cinema box office, and a children’s arcade, among others.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla tailwinds could drive momentum-filled finish to 2025: analyst

Tesla is heading toward some momentum to finish out the year, one Wall Street firm believes.

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Credit: @heydave7/X

Tesla has some tailwinds that could drive it toward a momentum-filled finish to the year, one Wall Street analyst is predicting.

The tailwinds are joined by some minor risks that have impacted the broader electric vehicle market, but overall, this firm believes Tesla has many catalysts moving forward.

Emmanuel Rosner of Wolfe Research believes that Tesla has plenty of things that could drive the stock upward as we approach the end of the year. With Q3 well underway, Tesla has about five months of catalysts to rely on to erase the roughly 18 percent drop in stock price it has so far this year.

At first glance, it is easy to see the things that would have investors bullish on Tesla for the rest of 2025 and even beyond. Initially, the Robotaxi launch and expansion, which spread to Northern California last night, provide potentially huge tailwinds for the company moving forward.

Tesla expands Robotaxi operation to California’s Bay Area

Along with that, and slightly related, are the advancements in Full Self-Driving that the company has made over the past few months.

This includes the potential launch of the FSD suite in regions like Europe and Australia, where the company believes it will make some progress on regulatory approval in the coming months.

Finally, Wolfe says the company’s Optimus project, which is expected to enter scale production sometime next year, is the third catalyst for Tesla moving forward.

With these three projects in motion, Tesla truly can begin to work on rebounding from a rough 2025 on the market.

Rosner writes:

“This name trades more around the narrative than the numbers. And net-net, we tactically see an improving narrative from here. Tesla has several catalysts coming up w/r/t FSD and Robotaxi, including an expansion of their AV service into several new U.S. markets (San Francisco, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, etc.). The company plans to unlock hands-free/eyes-off autonomy for FSD owners in select U.S. locations by YE25. Supervised FSD in China and Europe is expected to launch over the next ~12 months. And, Optimus is expected to enter scale production in 2026.”

Tesla is currently trading around $310 at around 3:20 p.m. on the East Coast.

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