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What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives?
The imminent arrival of the Tesla Model 3 has many existing Model S and Model X owners, future owners and experts asking one question: What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives? The latest video from Teslanomics by Ben Sullins digs into the data behind the issue and comes up with some startling findings along the way.
Current Supercharger State
As any Tesla driver knows, Supercharger stations are often full at popular routes of travel and in metropolitan cities. And depending on the time of day, and day of week, drivers looking to charge up before the next leg of their journey can sometimes come across a long queue of vehicles looking to achieve the same goal. Charge up and go.
To combat the problem, Tesla has implemented idle fees as a way to put financial pressure on drivers that linger at charging stations after they have already finished charging. Tesla also did away with unlimited free lifetime Supercharging, instead limiting all new vehicles sold after January 15, 2017 to 400 kWh per year of Supercharger use which should curb Supercharger congestion. But, there’s another problem just around the corner.
Model 3
Tesla will more than double annual production volumes when Model 3 first arrives and expects to produce 500,000 cars annually by the end of 2018.
In the face of what seems to be an insurmountable challenge, Ben at Teslanomics looked at historic Supercharger stats sourced through TMC in order to get a better idea of what drivers are in for when Model 3 arrives. Ben started the analysis by first finding the number of Tesla vehicles in each area and comparing it to the number of Supercharger stations in that same area. Q1 2015 saw the lowest worldwide vehicle to Supercharger ratio with 27.9 Tesla vehicles per charging stall. Looking at more recent data, Ben reveals that we’re currently at the worst worldwide ratio since the Supercharger network began, at an average of 39.3 Teslas per charger. This represents a 40.9% increase from two years ago.
Drilling down into US-specific data reveals a Tesla to Supercharger ratio of 48.6. But what’s most frightening is Teslanomic’s reveal that, as it stands now, there are 104.9 Tesla vehicles per Supercharger stall in California. Factoring in CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that first Model 3 deliveries will go to employees who are largely based in California facilities, followed by customers on the West Coast, it’s clear that demand will far outpace Supercharger supply in the very near future.
“there are 104.9 Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles per Supercharger stall in California”
What Can Be Done?
Tesla has said that it is doubling the number of Superchargers and quadrupling the number of destination chargers within its network this year.
While Tesla continues to produce vehicles year after year, the rate of charging network growth should theoretically be proportional to delivery numbers until we reach a saturation point, and demand for public charging stations normalizes.
For a deeper analysis of what’s to come and what needs to be done, check out the following video by Teslanomics. Let us know in our discussion forum if your area is already experiencing a Supercharging Apocalypse, or if you’re expecting something similar when Model 3 makes its way into town.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk: 10 billion miles needed for safe Unsupervised FSD
As per the CEO, roughly 10 billion miles of training data are required due to reality’s “super long tail of complexity.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has provided an updated estimate for the training data needed to achieve truly safe unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD).
As per the CEO, roughly 10 billion miles of training data are required due to reality’s “super long tail of complexity.”
10 billion miles of training data
Musk comment came as a reply to Apple and Rivian alum Paul Beisel, who posted an analysis on X about the gap between tech demonstrations and real-world products. In his post, Beisel highlighted Tesla’s data-driven lead in autonomy, and he also argued that it would not be easy for rivals to become a legitimate competitor to FSD quickly.
“The notion that someone can ‘catch up’ to this problem primarily through simulation and limited on-road exposure strikes me as deeply naive. This is not a demo problem. It is a scale, data, and iteration problem— and Tesla is already far, far down that road while others are just getting started,” Beisel wrote.
Musk responded to Beisel’s post, stating that “Roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving. Reality has a super long tail of complexity.” This is quite interesting considering that in his Master Plan Part Deux, Elon Musk estimated that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous driving would require around 6 billion miles.
FSD’s total training miles
As 2025 came to a close, Tesla community members observed that FSD was already nearing 7 billion miles driven, with over 2.5 billion miles being from inner city roads. The 7-billion-mile mark was passed just a few days later. This suggests that Tesla is likely the company today with the most training data for its autonomous driving program.
The difficulties of achieving autonomy were referenced by Elon Musk recently, when he commented on Nvidia’s Alpamayo program. As per Musk, “they will find that it’s easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution.” These sentiments were echoed by Tesla VP for AI software Ashok Elluswamy, who also noted on X that “the long tail is sooo long, that most people can’t grasp it.”
News
Tesla earns top honors at MotorTrend’s SDV Innovator Awards
MotorTrend’s SDV Awards were presented during CES 2026 in Las Vegas.
Tesla emerged as one of the most recognized automakers at MotorTrend’s 2026 Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) Innovator Awards.
As could be seen in a press release from the publication, two key Tesla employees were honored for their work on AI, autonomy, and vehicle software. MotorTrend’s SDV Awards were presented during CES 2026 in Las Vegas.
Tesla leaders and engineers recognized
The fourth annual SDV Innovator Awards celebrate pioneers and experts who are pushing the automotive industry deeper into software-driven development. Among the most notable honorees for this year was Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Vice President of AI Software, who received a Pioneer Award for his role in advancing artificial intelligence and autonomy across the company’s vehicle lineup.
Tesla also secured recognition in the Expert category, with Lawson Fulton, a staff Autopilot machine learning engineer, honored for his contributions to Tesla’s driver-assistance and autonomous systems.
Tesla’s software-first strategy
While automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Rivian also received recognition, Tesla’s multiple awards stood out given the company’s outsized role in popularizing software-defined vehicles over the past decade. From frequent OTA updates to its data-driven approach to autonomy, Tesla has consistently treated vehicles as evolving software platforms rather than static products.
This has made Tesla’s vehicles very unique in their respective sectors, as they are arguably the only cars that objectively get better over time. This is especially true for vehicles that are loaded with the company’s Full Self-Driving system, which are getting progressively more intelligent and autonomous over time. The majority of Tesla’s updates to its vehicles are free as well, which is very much appreciated by customers worldwide.
Elon Musk
Judge clears path for Elon Musk’s OpenAI lawsuit to go before a jury
The decision maintains Musk’s claims that OpenAI’s shift toward a for-profit structure violated early assurances made to him as a co-founder.
A U.S. judge has ruled that Elon Musk’s lawsuit accusing OpenAI of abandoning its founding nonprofit mission can proceed to a jury trial.
The decision maintains Musk’s claims that OpenAI’s shift toward a for-profit structure violated early assurances made to him as a co-founder. These claims are directly opposed by OpenAI.
Judge says disputed facts warrant a trial
At a hearing in Oakland, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers stated that there was “plenty of evidence” suggesting that OpenAI leaders had promised that the organization’s original nonprofit structure would be maintained. She ruled that those disputed facts should be evaluated by a jury at a trial in March rather than decided by the court at this stage, as noted in a Reuters report.
Musk helped co-found OpenAI in 2015 but left the organization in 2018. In his lawsuit, he argued that he contributed roughly $38 million, or about 60% of OpenAI’s early funding, based on assurances that the company would remain a nonprofit dedicated to the public benefit. He is seeking unspecified monetary damages tied to what he describes as “ill-gotten gains.”
OpenAI, however, has repeatedly rejected Musk’s allegations. The company has stated that Musk’s claims were baseless and part of a pattern of harassment.
Rivalries and Microsoft ties
The case unfolds against the backdrop of intensifying competition in generative artificial intelligence. Musk now runs xAI, whose Grok chatbot competes directly with OpenAI’s flagship ChatGPT. OpenAI has argued that Musk is a frustrated commercial rival who is simply attempting to slow down a market leader.
The lawsuit also names Microsoft as a defendant, citing its multibillion-dollar partnerships with OpenAI. Microsoft has urged the court to dismiss the claims against it, arguing there is no evidence it aided or abetted any alleged misconduct. Lawyers for OpenAI have also pushed for the case to be thrown out, claiming that Musk failed to show sufficient factual basis for claims such as fraud and breach of contract.
Judge Gonzalez Rogers, however, declined to end the case at this stage, noting that a jury would also need to consider whether Musk filed the lawsuit within the applicable statute of limitations. Still, the dispute between Elon Musk and OpenAI is now headed for a high-profile jury trial in the coming months.
Tesla’s Elon Musk: 10 billion miles needed for safe Unsupervised FSD
Tesla earns top honors at MotorTrend’s SDV Innovator Awards
