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What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives?
The imminent arrival of the Tesla Model 3 has many existing Model S and Model X owners, future owners and experts asking one question: What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives? The latest video from Teslanomics by Ben Sullins digs into the data behind the issue and comes up with some startling findings along the way.
Current Supercharger State
As any Tesla driver knows, Supercharger stations are often full at popular routes of travel and in metropolitan cities. And depending on the time of day, and day of week, drivers looking to charge up before the next leg of their journey can sometimes come across a long queue of vehicles looking to achieve the same goal. Charge up and go.
To combat the problem, Tesla has implemented idle fees as a way to put financial pressure on drivers that linger at charging stations after they have already finished charging. Tesla also did away with unlimited free lifetime Supercharging, instead limiting all new vehicles sold after January 15, 2017 to 400 kWh per year of Supercharger use which should curb Supercharger congestion. But, there’s another problem just around the corner.
Model 3
Tesla will more than double annual production volumes when Model 3 first arrives and expects to produce 500,000 cars annually by the end of 2018.
In the face of what seems to be an insurmountable challenge, Ben at Teslanomics looked at historic Supercharger stats sourced through TMC in order to get a better idea of what drivers are in for when Model 3 arrives. Ben started the analysis by first finding the number of Tesla vehicles in each area and comparing it to the number of Supercharger stations in that same area. Q1 2015 saw the lowest worldwide vehicle to Supercharger ratio with 27.9 Tesla vehicles per charging stall. Looking at more recent data, Ben reveals that we’re currently at the worst worldwide ratio since the Supercharger network began, at an average of 39.3 Teslas per charger. This represents a 40.9% increase from two years ago.
Drilling down into US-specific data reveals a Tesla to Supercharger ratio of 48.6. But what’s most frightening is Teslanomic’s reveal that, as it stands now, there are 104.9 Tesla vehicles per Supercharger stall in California. Factoring in CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that first Model 3 deliveries will go to employees who are largely based in California facilities, followed by customers on the West Coast, it’s clear that demand will far outpace Supercharger supply in the very near future.
“there are 104.9 Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles per Supercharger stall in California”
What Can Be Done?
Tesla has said that it is doubling the number of Superchargers and quadrupling the number of destination chargers within its network this year.
While Tesla continues to produce vehicles year after year, the rate of charging network growth should theoretically be proportional to delivery numbers until we reach a saturation point, and demand for public charging stations normalizes.
For a deeper analysis of what’s to come and what needs to be done, check out the following video by Teslanomics. Let us know in our discussion forum if your area is already experiencing a Supercharging Apocalypse, or if you’re expecting something similar when Model 3 makes its way into town.
Tesla Robotaxi ride-hailing without a Safety Monitor is proving to be a difficult task, according to some riders who made the journey to Austin to attempt to ride in one of its vehicles that has zero supervision.
Last week, Tesla officially removed Safety Monitors from some — not all — of its Robotaxi vehicles in Austin, Texas, answering skeptics who said the vehicles still needed supervision to operate safely and efficiently.
BREAKING: Tesla launches public Robotaxi rides in Austin with no Safety Monitor
Tesla aimed to remove Safety Monitors before the end of 2025, and it did, but only to company employees. It made the move last week to open the rides to the public, just a couple of weeks late to its original goal, but the accomplishment was impressive, nonetheless.
However, the small number of Robotaxis that are operating without Safety Monitors has proven difficult to hail for a ride. David Moss, who has gained notoriety recently as the person who has traveled over 10,000 miles in his Tesla on Full Self-Driving v14 without any interventions, made it to Austin last week.
He has tried to get a ride in a Safety Monitor-less Robotaxi for the better part of four days, and after 38 attempts, he still has yet to grab one:
Wow just wow!
It’s 8:30PM, 29° out ice storm hailing & Tesla Robotaxi service has turned back on!
Waymo is offline & vast majority of humans are home in the storm
Ride 38 was still supervised but by far most impressive yet pic.twitter.com/1aUnJkcYm8
— David Moss (@DavidMoss) January 25, 2026
Tesla said last week that it was rolling out a controlled test of the Safety Monitor-less Robotaxis. Ashok Elluswamy, who heads the AI program at Tesla, confirmed that the company was “starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader Robotaxi fleet with Safety Monitors,” and that “the ratio will increase over time.”
This is a good strategy that prioritizes safety and keeps the company’s controlled rollout at the forefront of the Robotaxi rollout.
However, it will be interesting to see how quickly the company can scale these completely monitor-less rides. It has proven to be extremely difficult to get one, but that is understandable considering only a handful of the cars in the entire Austin fleet are operating with no supervision within the vehicle.
Tesla has given its biggest hint that Full Self-Driving in Europe is imminent, as a new feature seems to show that the company is preparing for frequent border crossings.
Tesla owner and influencer BLKMDL3, also known as Zack, recently took his Tesla to the border of California and Mexico at Tijuana, and at the international crossing, Full Self-Driving showed an interesting message: “Upcoming country border — FSD (Supervised) will become unavailable.”
FSD now shows a new message when approaching an international border crossing.
Stayed engaged the whole way as we crossed the border and worked great in Mexico! pic.twitter.com/bDzyLnyq0g
— Zack (@BLKMDL3) January 26, 2026
Due to regulatory approvals, once a Tesla operating on Full Self-Driving enters a new country, it is required to comply with the laws and regulations that are applicable to that territory. Even if legal, it seems Tesla will shut off FSD temporarily, confirming it is in a location where operation is approved.
This is something that will be extremely important in Europe, as crossing borders there is like crossing states in the U.S.; it’s pretty frequent compared to life in America, Canada, and Mexico.
Tesla has been working to get FSD approved in Europe for several years, and it has been getting close to being able to offer it to owners on the continent. However, it is still working through a lot of the red tape that is necessary for European regulators to approve use of the system on their continent.
This feature seems to be one that would be extremely useful in Europe, considering the fact that crossing borders into other countries is much more frequent than here in the U.S., and would cater to an area where approvals would differ.
Tesla has been testing FSD in Spain, France, England, and other European countries, and plans to continue expanding this effort. European owners have been fighting for a very long time to utilize the functionality, but the red tape has been the biggest bottleneck in the process.
Tesla Europe builds momentum with expanding FSD demos and regional launches
Tesla operates Full Self-Driving in the United States, China, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship V3 gets launch date update from Elon Musk
The first flight of Starship Version 3 and its new Raptor V3 engines could happen as early as March.
Elon Musk has announced that SpaceX’s next Starship launch, Flight 12, is expected in about six weeks. This suggests that the first flight of Starship Version 3 and its new Raptor V3 engines could happen as early as March.
In a post on X, Elon Musk stated that the next Starship launch is in six weeks. He accompanied his announcement with a photo that seemed to have been taken when Starship’s upper stage was just about to separate from the Super Heavy Booster. Musk did not state whether SpaceX will attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster during the upcoming flight.
The upcoming flight will mark the debut of Starship V3. The upgraded design includes the new Raptor V3 engine, which is expected to have nearly twice the thrust of the original Raptor 1, at a fraction of the cost and with significantly reduced weight. The Starship V3 platform is also expected to be optimized for manufacturability.
The Starship V3 Flight 12 launch timeline comes as SpaceX pursues an aggressive development cadence for the fully reusable launch system. Previous iterations of Starship have racked up a mixed but notable string of test flights, including multiple integrated flight tests in 2025.
Interestingly enough, SpaceX has teased an aggressive timeframe for Starship V3’s first flight. Way back in late November, SpaceX noted on X that it will be aiming to launch Starship V3’s maiden flight in the first quarter of 2026. This was despite setbacks like a structural anomaly on the first V3 booster during ground testing.
“Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026,” the company wrote in its post on X.
Tesla Robotaxi ride-hailing without a Safety Monitor proves to be difficult
Tesla gives its biggest hint that Full Self-Driving in Europe is imminent
