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What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives?

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The imminent arrival of the Tesla Model 3 has many existing Model S and Model X owners, future owners and experts asking one question: What will happen to Tesla Supercharger availability when Model 3 arrives? The latest video from Teslanomics by Ben Sullins digs into the data behind the issue and comes up with some startling findings along the way.

Current Supercharger State

As any Tesla driver knows, Supercharger stations are often full at popular routes of travel and in metropolitan cities. And depending on the time of day, and day of week, drivers looking to charge up before the next leg of their journey can sometimes come across a long queue of vehicles looking to achieve the same goal. Charge up and go.

To combat the problem, Tesla has implemented idle fees as a way to put financial pressure on drivers that linger at charging stations after they have already finished charging. Tesla also did away with unlimited free lifetime Supercharging, instead limiting all new vehicles sold after January 15, 2017 to 400 kWh per year of Supercharger use which should curb Supercharger congestion. But, there’s another problem just around the corner.

Model 3

Tesla will more than double annual production volumes when Model 3 first arrives and expects to produce 500,000 cars annually by the end of 2018.

In the face of what seems to be an insurmountable challenge, Ben at Teslanomics looked at historic Supercharger stats sourced through TMC in order to get a better idea of what drivers are in for when Model 3 arrives. Ben started the analysis by first finding the number of Tesla vehicles in each area and comparing it to the number of Supercharger stations in that same area. Q1 2015 saw the lowest worldwide vehicle to Supercharger ratio with 27.9 Tesla vehicles per charging stall. Looking at more recent data, Ben reveals that we’re currently at the worst worldwide ratio since the Supercharger network began, at an average of 39.3 Teslas per charger. This represents a 40.9% increase from two years ago.

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Drilling down into US-specific data reveals a Tesla to Supercharger ratio of 48.6. But what’s most frightening is Teslanomic’s reveal that, as it stands now, there are 104.9 Tesla vehicles per Supercharger stall in California. Factoring in CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that first Model 3 deliveries will go to employees who are largely based in California facilities, followed by customers on the West Coast, it’s clear that demand will far outpace Supercharger supply in the very near future.

“there are 104.9 Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles per Supercharger stall in California”

What Can Be Done?

Tesla has said that it is doubling the number of Superchargers and quadrupling the number of destination chargers within its network this year.

While Tesla continues to produce vehicles year after year, the rate of charging network growth should theoretically be proportional to delivery numbers until we reach a saturation point, and demand for public charging stations normalizes.

For a deeper analysis of what’s to come and what needs to be done, check out the following video by Teslanomics. Let us know in our discussion forum if your area is already experiencing a Supercharging Apocalypse, or if you’re expecting something similar when Model 3 makes its way into town.

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I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Tesla Supercharger access has proven to be a challenge for one company

Interestingly, it seems to be the Volkswagen brand specifically that is having issues with compatibility with Tesla Superchargers. Other brands under the VW umbrella, like Audi and Porsche, have already gained access to the charging network.

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Credit: MarcoRP | X

Tesla Supercharger access has proven to be quite the challenge for one company, as it continues to delay the date that it will enable its owners to charge at the most expansive network in the world.

Tesla Superchargers have been opening up to other brands for well over a year, and many car companies that are manufacturing electric vehicles now have access to the vast network that has over 70,000 locations worldwide.

Tesla to launch Supercharger access for VW owners later this year

However, one brand has experienced some issues with what it is calling “technical challenges,” specifically failing to enable cross-compatibility between its vehicles and Tesla Superchargers.

Volkswagen has had to delay its ability to enable customers to charge at Superchargers because there have been some difficulties getting things to run smoothly. A report from PCMag cites a quote from a Volkswagen spokesperson who said there are still plans to deliver this year, but there have been some delays:

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“Volkswagen looks forward to making it possible for ID. Buzz and ID.4 vehicle owners to gain access to the Tesla NACS Partner Superchargers. The timeline has been delayed by technical challenges, and we ask for customers’ patience. We still expect to deliver access this year.”

Interestingly, it seems to be the Volkswagen brand specifically that is having issues with compatibility with Tesla Superchargers. Other brands under the VW umbrella, like Audi and Porsche, have already gained access to the charging network.

Volkswagen EV owners will need to use an official VW adapter to access the Tesla Supercharger Network once the issues are resolved. It still plans to launch access to its owners later this year, but its spokesperson did not announce any planned timeline.

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Tesla Giga Berlin makes big move amid strong sales and demand

“We currently have very good sales figures and have therefore revised our production plans for the third and fourth quarters upwards.”

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla is making a big move at its factory in Germany, known as Giga Berlin, as managers at the plant have indicated the company plans to increase its production rate for the remainder of the year.

Giga Berlin is responsible for manufacturing Model Y vehicles for several markets worldwide, including those outside of Europe. It was opened in March 2022, and it recently built its 500,000th Model Y in March and its 100,000th new Model Y just three weeks ago.

Due to some encouraging sales figures in the markets it provides vehicles for, Tesla said it is planning to increase production at the factory for the remainder of the year.

Andrè Thierig, plant manager at Giga Berlin, said to German news outlet DPA on Sunday that market data has encouraged a move to be made regarding the production at the factory:

“We currently have very good sales figures and have therefore revised our production plans for the third and fourth quarters upwards.”

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It is interesting to see this kind of narrative from Thierig, especially as data has shown Tesla has struggled in various markets, including Germany, this year.

Sales drops have been reported, but other markets are holding strong, especially those in Northern Europe, such as Norway, where the Model Y saw a nearly 39 percent increase in sales in August compared to the same month the previous year.

Tesla Model Y leads sales rush in Norway in August 2025

Gigafactory Berlin supplies vehicles for other markets, such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, which are strategically important to avoid tariffs. It also builds cars for the Middle East.

Thierig reiterated this point during the interview with DPA:

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“We supply well over 30 markets and definitely see a positive trend there.”

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Elon Musk

Tesla analyst says Musk stock buy should send this signal to investors

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk purchased roughly $1 billion in Tesla shares on Friday, and analysts are now breaking down the move as the stock is headed upward.

One of them is William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, who said in a new note to investors on Monday that Musk’s move should send a signal of confidence to stock buyers, especially considering the company’s numerous catalysts that currently exist.

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion in Tesla stock, his biggest purchase ever

Dorsheimer said in the note:

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish. This purchase is Musk’s first buy since 2020. To us, this sends a strong signal of confidence in the most important part of Tesla’s future business, robotaxi.”

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Musk putting an additional $1 billion back into the company in the form of more stock ownership is obviously a huge vote of confidence.

He knows more than anyone about the progress Tesla has made and is making on the Robotaxi platform, as well as the company’s ongoing efforts to solve vehicle autonomy. If he’s buying stock, it is more than likely a good sign.

Tesla has continued to expand its Robotaxi platform in a number of ways. The project has gotten bigger in terms of service area, vehicle fleet, and testing population. Tesla has also recently received a permit to test in Nevada, unlocking the potential to expand into a brand-new state for the company.

In the note, Dorsheimer also touched on Musk’s recent pay package, revealing that William Blair recently met with Tesla’s Board of Directors, who gave the firm some more color on the situation:

“We recently participated in a meeting with Tesla’s board of directors to discuss the details of Musk’s performance package. The board is confident of its position in the Delaware case and anticipates a verdict by end of year. It does not expect a similar situation to occur under new Texas jurisdiction. Musk has the board’s full support, and we expect he’ll get more than enough shareholder support for this to pass with flying colors.”

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Tesla stock is up over 6 percent so far today, trading at $421.50 at the time of publication.

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