Investor's Corner
Tesla Targets Battery Storage and Europe
Social media and Wall St. are rallying as the Tesla PR machine gave some details about its upcoming April 30th press conference, which will feature a battery storage solution. According to a Bloomberg report, Tesla hooked WalMart and industrial company to invest in its enterprise storage solution. Very impressive.
Other surprises may come in the next earnings call as investors and enthusiasts will get more information on country deliveries for 2015’s 1st qtr., such as Europe and China. My guess is that Europe sales may come in a little higher than expected. At least, I hope they do (Full disclosure: Owner & stockholder).
Before the battery storage buzz, Street analysts started to focus on sales or deliveries for 2015 and figured Tesla may come up short with its 55,000 delivery promise. Morgan Stanley automotive analyst Adam Jonas downgraded Tesla to $280 for precisely this reason. While other analysts aren’t so bullish on the company and have it a target lower than $190, mainly due bearish delivery numbers.
So where’s the beef? Where are sales going to come from in 2015 with the Model X delivery projections expected to be around 5,000 to 10,000 on the high end. Tesla is probably searching for the next “cluster” in Europe, which could be a country or big cities within a country, say, like Germany.
European economic data is finally surging after many years of austerity in Europe. A Bloomberg article points out that european car sales in January rose 6.2 percent and the flood of money, by way of EU’s quantitative easing, could help Tesla increase sales in 2015.
I think Germany is a tough sell for Tesla, with buyers allegiance to the home country and its products. However, the country has a green streak and supercharging stations dot the landscape in Germany. In England, the southern half of the country could be a good “buyer-cluster” with a high-density number of chargers in the area and outside of London.
Of course, there’s Norway…we’ll always have Norway.
Also, Tesla announced a full expansion of its destination charging program in Q2 for Europe. Does the 70D fine a niche in Europe?
China is hard to map out, but is there a comeback story for Tesla in this country in 2015? China’s economy is slowing down. The largest car buying naton injected more money into its economic system last week in hopes for a 7% GDP in 2015.
To me, China reminds me of Chicago politics and I’m not sure Elon Musk is on the take. Plus, I hear the back seat is not up to standards with China’s elite class.
BMW has lowered its production targets for China in the 2nd quarter and prices. According to Automotive News Europe, demand for luxury products has also been hit by austerity measures and an anti-corruption drive under China Pres. Xi Jinping in its third year.
It seems Europe could hold the keys to Tesla hitting those numbers, but the stock price might not matter if they keep announcing heavyweight commercial and industrial customers for its battery storage program.
According to CTO JB Straubel in the 2014 Q4 Call:
“We see the California mandate for stationary energy storage by 2020 and we’re (Tesla) quite a lot more bullish. We think that mandate will be met and far exceeded before the timeframe expires. We all should be thinking bigger.”
Bigger stock price?
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla plans for new 300+ stall Supercharger with a special surprise for Semi
Tesla makes two big interior changes to several Model Y vehicles
