Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT
Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.
One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.
As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.
However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”
Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits
There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.
The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.
As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:
“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”
Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:
- 2020: $1.58 billion
- 2021: $1.465 billion
- 2022: $1.776 billion
- 2023: $1.79 billion
- 2024: $2.763 billion
Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.
Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package
As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders
Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.
As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.
Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric
Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post.
“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”
Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.
Musk’s ambitious pay package
Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.
Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.
So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.
Investor's Corner
Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package gets support from Tesla’s biggest bull
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass.
Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest and one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls, reiterated her support for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award.
Wood highlighted that Musk’s leadership attracts incredible talent, and it has allowed the companies he leads such as Tesla to become disruptors in their respective fields.
ARK Invest supports Musk’s leadership
Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award has received a mixed reception. Proxy firms such as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) have stated that they would be voting against Musk’s pay package. Other entities, such as the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA), have stated that they would be voting in favor of Tesla’s proposals.
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, for her part, has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass. She also stated that a favorable result to the vote for Musk’s 2025 pay plan would be beneficial for Tesla.
“Elon Musk is the most productive human being on earth. And a human being who attracts incredible talent, people who want to solve the world’s hardest problems. This is a win-win for all of us if Elon succeeds this time,” Wood stated. Musk appreciated Wood’s comments, stating, “Thanks Cathie!” In a post on X.
ARK Invest has been one of Tesla’s most loyal bulls
Tesla is ARK Invest’s single largest holding, with the firm holding an estimated $1 billion worth of TSLA, as noted in an Insider report. Wood previously said she expects the approval of Musk’s pay package to trigger “super-exponential growth” for the automaker, as new products like the Cybercab and Optimus expand Tesla’s offerings.
“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI, and it’s not stopping with Robotaxis. There’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” Wood stated during an appearance at Steven Bartlett’s podcast The Diary Of A CEO.
Investor's Corner
Tesla VP for AI software makes a case for upcoming Elon Musk shareholder vote
Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history.
Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy has shared his thoughts about CEO Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award. While the executive typically discusses topics related to the company’s tech and AI initiaives, Elluswamy made it a point to make a case for Musk’s proposed pay package.
Tesla’s VP for AI Software shares his insights
In a post on X, Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history. This is because the company is changing from a leader in electric vehicles and a major player in the energy storage market to a powerhouse pioneer in robotics that are powered by real-world AI. As per the executive, Elon Musk’s leadership of Tesla is more relevant now more than ever. He also reported an X article he previously wrote about Elon Musk and Tesla.
“This note regarding the importance of Elon leading Tesla is more relevant now than ever. Tesla is at a critical juncture, as it is metamorphosing into the world leader in robotics. Creating large-scale, useful robots requires expertise across engineering design, manufacturing, real-world AI software, chips for AI, and more. Elon is, quite likely, the only person on Earth with deep skills and the right instincts across all these domains,” Elluswamy stated.
A push to support Musk’s 2025 performance award
In recent weeks, Tesla executives such as Board Chair Robyn Denholm have been encouraging TSLA shareholders to vote in favor of Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, as well as other proposals that the company’s directors have argued are critical to the future of the company. These proposals, Tesla executives noted, are necessary to ensure that the company can achieve the ambitious targets of Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part IV.
Elon Musk’s pay package, as well as the company’s proposals, would be decided at the upcoming 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, which would be held at Giga Texas on November 6, 2025. Needless to say, Tesla’s future might very well be decided during the event.
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