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Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT

Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.

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Credit: Tesla

One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.

As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.

However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”

Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits

There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.

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The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.

As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:

“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”

Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:

  • 2020: $1.58 billion
  • 2021: $1.465 billion
  • 2022: $1.776 billion
  • 2023: $1.79 billion
  • 2024: $2.763 billion

Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.

Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.’”

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The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

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He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Tesla stock gets crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk

Musk says this is what it would take to be a millionaire from a Tesla investment right now.

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A red Tesla Roadster driving around a turn
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got a crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk recently, as the future of the company seems to be moving more toward AI, autonomy, and robotics, and away from automotive, which is what it has traditionally been recognized as.

Over the past few years, as Tesla has prioritized its Full Self-Driving suite, its rollout of a dedicated Robotaxi program, and the development of the Optimus bot, the company has gained a new reputation from analysts.

It was always looked at as a stock with tremendous potential by many Wall Street firms, some more than others.

The most bullish analysts, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, believe the company will eventually reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation and a share price of over $2,000. Her $2,600 price target does not include any contributions of Optimus. Instead, it leans on Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi.

Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

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Based on where the company is now, there are a lot of potential catalysts. The Robotaxi expansion, as well as affordable vehicles, its prowess in AI and Robotics, and its powerful energy division are all arguments for investment.

One X user said that a $150,000 investment in Tesla right now would likely make you a millionaire. Musk said he thinks that sentiment is “probably correct.”

He’s echoed this belief in recent earnings calls, including the one for Q2, which happened in July:

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“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

Tesla is trading at $316.50 at the time of writing, and has a market cap of just under $1 trillion.

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Tesla stock gets another analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like it

“Tesla is morphing right now. It’s in transition from being a car company to being a technology company.”

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Credit: CNBC Television/YouTube

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got its latest analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like what he has to say.

Cramer has flip-flopped his thoughts on Tesla shares many times over the years. One time, he said CEO Elon Musk was a genius; the next, he said Ford stock was a better play. He’s always changing his tune.

However, Cramer’s most recent analysis is of a bullish tone, as he talks about the company’s evolution from an automaker to a tech powerhouse. He made the comments on CNBC’s Mad Money:

“Tesla is morphing right now. It’s in transition from being a car company to being a technology company. You wanna be in there because the tech is worth a lot more than what it’s selling for right now. Don’t care where you bought it, care where it’s going to.”

Tesla has always been looked at by the mainstream media as an automaker. While that is its main business currently, Tesla has always had other divisions: Energy, Solar, Charging, AI, and Robotics. Some came after others, but the important point is that Tesla has not been an automaker exclusively for a decade.

It launched Powerwall and Powerpack in April 2015, marking the start of Tesla Energy.

But Cramer has a point here: Tesla is truly becoming much more than a car company, and it is turning into an AI and overall tech company more than ever before. Eventually, it will be recognized as such, more so than it will be as an automotive company.

Cramer’s comments also follow a recent prediction by Musk, who stated on X that he believes a $150,000 investment in Tesla shares right now would eventually turn someone into a millionaire:

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Musk has said he believes Tesla could be headed to a serious increase in valuation. Eventually, it could become the most valuable company in the world. He said this during the Q2 Earnings Call:

“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

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