Investor's Corner
Tesla’s ‘big week’ set to get automaker back on track with big picture story: firm
Tesla’s “big week,” which includes a quarterly delivery report with major implications and a Robotaxi unveiling event that could truly set the tone for the company moving forward, is set to get the automaker back on track with its big picture story, Wedbush said in a new note.
That is, if Tesla can come through on both.
Wedbush put out its third note in the past two weeks on Tuesday morning, all trying to set a good narrative for what the Q3 delivery figures and Robotaxi event could mean for the stock.
It’s no secret Tesla has been relatively lackluster in terms of stock performance in 2024. It’s only up 2.36 percent for the year, but a delivery beat for Q3, which could set the tone for Q4, and a robust and informational Robotaxi unveiling event, could both help end the year with more growth.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives provided some color on the delivery picture in the note:
“After a bumpy 1H for Musk & Co. as the company saw softer EV demand along with the broader industry earlier in the year, we believe 3Q will provide a solid rebound looking to 2H for the company as China continues to heat up and price/demand stabilization has continuously been seen throughout the quarter.”
As for the Robotaxi unveiling event, Ives said:
“Next Thursday, October 10th, Tesla will be hosting its long-awaited “We, Robot” Robotaxi event after the market at the Warner Bros. movie studio in Los Angeles, which we will be attending live for this historic event. We believe Robotaxi Day will be a seminal and historical day for Musk and Tesla and marks a new chapter of growth around autonomous, FSD, and AI future at Tesla. We continue to believe Tesla is the most undervalued AI name in the market, and we expect Musk & Co. to unveil some “game-changing” autonomous technology at this event next week.”
Wedbush has high expectations for the Robotaxi unveiling event. Tesla has hyped it up plenty. Musk has agreed it could be the biggest event for Tesla since the Model 3 unveiling. While it could be groundbreaking, there is a lot to consider, especially the fact that a lackluster event could be more damaging than complimenting to the Tesla story.
The note pushes Tesla to update investors on Cybercab scaling, the overall cost per mile, a rideshare app, and a demonstration of the capabilities. These are nearly looked at as non-negotiables for the event, and if Tesla does not come up with a display of these things, shareholders could come away disappointed.
Tesla expected to unveil ‘game changing’ autonomous tech next week: Wedbush
That is not to say it will be a complete failure. Another note from Barclays on Monday noted that some Tesla shareholders will be “entrenched” in their outlook on the company, and even if the Robotaxi unveiling is flat and disappointing, it is unlikely to change much.
Still, Wedbush believes the Robotaxi event is the next step in Tesla’s robust story as a company:
“With very few industry events as widely anticipated as this, we believe Musk will address the near-term pain points seen by investors and the company’s long-term vision as Tesla goes through its second transformation not seen since the Model 3/Y production overhaul.”
Wedbush maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating and a $300 price target.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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