

Investor's Corner
Tesla dips amid ‘meager’ Model 3 demand claims despite TSLA’s China, Europe push
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropped to nearly 5-month lows on Monday, trading as low as $256.02 per share, the lowest since October 22, 2018. The drop in the electric car maker’s shares transpired amidst Wall St’s continued concerns over alleged Model 3 demand issues and Elon Musk’s recent initiative to raise the price of Tesla’s inventory vehicles by ~3%.
RBC analyst Joseph Spak recently cut his price target for Tesla shares by $35 to $210 each in a note published on Monday. Spak trimmed his Q1 2019 Model 3 delivery forecasts to 52,500. This number is 4,500 less than Spak’s previous estimates over what he cited as “meager demand” for the electric sedan. Apart from Spak, JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha lowered his price target for Tesla by 3% to $394 per share. Osha cites the US market’s weakness and Tesla’s closing of its galleries as among the drivers behind his more conservative stance, though the analyst noted that JMP continues to believe in Tesla’s long-term narrative.
“As we have moved through the first part of 2019, it is becoming apparent that Tesla’s efforts to pull demand into 4Q before the federal tax credit expired worked well, perhaps better than the company had planned. Indeed, based on our analysis we are not sure that U.S. demand will return to 4Q18 levels at any point this year. It is worth reiterating that our investment stance on Tesla has always been based on the potential the company has to make competitive gains over time. The undeniably challenging environment that Tesla faces at the moment is not enough to impact our fundamental stance on the company and its prospects,” Osha wrote.
Concerns about the Model 3’s weakening demand might be overblown, especially considering that Tesla is currently focusing its push for the vehicle in territories outside the United States. This is a key point that seems to be neglected in recent mainstream analysis of the company’s strategy this quarter, as revealed in a recent piece on Model 3 demand from The New York Times. Citing new-car registrations compiled by the Dominion Cross-Sell Report, which concluded that new Tesla registrations “fell significantly” in the 23 US states covered in the report, the publication suggested that the numbers are a worrisome sign for the electric car maker.
While the NYT‘s hypothesis with Tesla’s lower registrations in the US should not be discounted, the company’s lower registration numbers could be explained by Tesla simply not delivering as many vehicles in the United States this quarter compared to Q4 2018. Since January, Tesla has been pushing the Model 3 to Europe and China, two markets that have been waiting for the electric sedan. This is a notable contrast to Tesla’s strategy in the fourth quarter, when all of its production and deliveries were focused in North America. Until Tesla reveals its delivery figures in Europe and China on its Q1 2019 production and delivery report, it seems too early to make assumptions about the sedan’s overall demand, or lack thereof.
To be clear, this doesn’t affect Tesla website order prices. Existing inventory prices are currently slightly lower than on website. This will bring them in line.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 24, 2019
Tesla is nearing the end of Q1 2019, and the company is putting all hands on deck. A recently shared email from Elon Musk has revealed that the CEO is urging the company’s employees to shift their focus on delivering cars to customers, regardless of their role. Musk was optimistic in his message, stating “This is the biggest wave in Tesla’s history, but it is primarily a function of our first delivery of mass manufactured cars on two continents simultaneously, and will not be repeated in subsequent quarters.” Musk has also announced that Tesla is increasing the price of inventory cars worldwide by ~3% on April 1. The changes would not be affecting the current prices of Tesla’s existing vehicles, and is only intended to bring the costs of inventory cars in line.
As of writing, Tesla shares are starting to recover, trading down 1.18% at $261.41 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting,” Nathan said, citing numerous signs of strength, such as holding its 200-day moving average and holding against its resistance level.

A Tesla bear is changing his tune, turning bullish for two reasons as the company’s stock has continued to get a boost over the past month.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of Tesla shares, said he is changing his tune, at least in the short term, on the company’s stock because of “technicals and sentiment,” believing the company is on track for a strong Q3, but also an investment story that will slowly veer away from its automotive business.
“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting,” Nathan said, citing numerous signs of strength, such as holding its 200-day moving average and holding against its resistance level.
He also said he believes a rally for the stock could continue as it heads into the end of the quarter, especially as the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit is coming to an end at the end of the month.
With that being said, he believes the consensus for Q3 deliveries is “probably low,” as he believes Wall Street is likely underestimating what Tesla will bring to the table on October 1 or 2 when it reports numbers for the quarter.
Tesla bear Dan Nathan has flipped his script on Tesla $TSLA shares, citing “technicals and sentiment”
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 12, 2025
Tesla shares are already up over five percent today, with gains exceeding nine percent over the past five trading days, and more than fourteen percent in the past month.
While some analysts are looking at the performance of other Mag 7 stocks, movement on rates from the Federal Reserve, and other broader market factors as reasoning for Tesla’s strong performance, it appears some movement could be related to the company’s recent developments instead.
Over the past week, Tesla has made some strides in its Robotaxi program, including a new license to test the platform in the State of Nevada, which we reported on.
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
Additionally, the company is riding the tails of the end of the EV tax credit, as inventory, both new and used, is running extremely low, generally speaking. Many markets do not have any vehicles to purchase as of right now, making delivery by September 30 extremely difficult.
However, there has been some adjustments to the guidelines by the IRS, which can be read here:
Tesla is trading at around $389 at 10:56 a.m. on the East Coast.
Elon Musk
Analyst: Elon Musk’s $1 trillion Tesla pay deal modest against robot market potential
Jonas highlighted Tesla’s longer-term ambitions in robotics as a key factor in his assessment.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, one of Wall Street’s most ardent Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls today, has described Elon Musk’s newly proposed $1 trillion performance-based compensation package as a “good deal” for investors.
In a note shared this week, Jonas argued that the package helps align the interests of Musk and Tesla’s minority shareholders, despite its shockingly high headline number.
Future market opportunities
Jonas highlighted Tesla’s longer-term ambitions in robotics as a key factor in his assessment. “Yes, a trillion bucks is a big number, but (it) is rather modest compared to the size of the market opportunity,” Jonas wrote. He added that the humanoid robot market could ultimately surpass the size of today’s global labor market “by a significant multiple.”
“We have entertained scenarios where the humanoid robot market can exceed the size of today’s global labor market… by a significant multiple,” Jonas wrote, as shared on X by Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt.
The analyst likened the arrival of AI-powered robotics to the transformative effect of electricity, noting that “contemplating future global GDP before AI robots is like contemplating global GDP before electricity.” The Morgan Stanley analyst’s insights align with the idea that as much as 80% of Tesla’s future valuation could be tied to its Optimus humanoid robot program.
Elon Musk’s pay package
Tesla’s board has tied Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package to some of the most ambitious targets in corporate history. The 2025 CEO Performance Award requires the automaker’s valuation to soar from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion over the next decade, a level that would make Tesla the most valuable company in existence.
The plan also demands a leap in Tesla’s operating profit, from $17 billion in 2024 to $400 billion annually. It also ties the CEO’s compensation to a number of product milestones, including the delivery of 20 million vehicles in total, 10 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million Robotaxis in operation. Tesla’s board emphasized that Musk’s leadership was fundamental to achieving such ambitious goals, with Chair Robyn Denholm noting the award would align the CEO’s incentives with long-term shareholder value.
Elon Musk
Tesla board reveals reasoning for CEO Elon Musk’s new $1 trillion pay package
“Yes, you read that correctly: in 2018, Elon had to grow Tesla by billions; in 2025, he has to grow Tesla by trillions — to be exact, he must create nearly $7.5 trillion in value for shareholders for him to receive the full award.”

Tesla’s Board of Directors has proposed a new pay package for company CEO Elon Musk that would result in $1 trillion in stock offerings if he is able to meet several lofty performance targets.
Musk, who has not been meaningfully compensated since 2017, completed his last pay package by delivering billions in shareholder value through a variety of performance-based “tranches,” which were met and resulted in the award of billions in stock.
Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation
However, Musk was unable to claim this award due to a ruling by the Delaware Chancery Court, which deemed the payout an “unfathomable sum.”
Now, the company is taking steps to ensure Musk gets paid, as the Board feels that it is crucial to retain its CEO, who has been responsible for much of the company’s success.
This is not a statement to undermine the work of all of Tesla’s terrific employees, but a ship needs to be captained by someone, and Musk has proven he is the right person for the job.
The Board also believes that, based on a statement made by the company in its proxy, various issues will be discussed during the upcoming Shareholder Meeting.
Robyn Denholm and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson recognized Musk’s contributions in a statement, which encouraged shareholders to vote to approve the payout:
“We’re asking you to approve the 2025 CEO Performance Award. In designing the new performance award, we explored numerous alternatives. Ultimately, the new award aims to build upon the success of the 2018 CEO Performance Award framework, which ensure that Elon was only paid for the performance delivered and incentivized to guide Tesla through a period of meteoric growth. The 2025 CEO Performance Award similarly challegnes Elon to again meet a series of even more aspirational goals, including operational milestones focused on reaching Adjusted EBITDA targets (thresholds that are up to 28 times higher than the 2108 CEO Performance Award’s top Adjusted EBITDA milestone) and rolling out new or expanded product offerings (including 1 million Robotaxis in commercial operation and delivery of 1 million AI Bots), all while growing the company’s market capitalization by trillions of dollars.
Yes, you read that correctly: in 2018, Elon had to grow Tesla by billions; in 2025, he has to grow Tesla by trillions — to be exact, he must create nearly $7.5 trillion in value for shareholders for him to receive the full award.
In addition to these unprecedented performance milestones, the 2025 CEO Performance Award also includes innovative structural features, born out of the special committee’s considered analysis and extensive shareholder feedback. These features include supercharged retention (at least seven and a half years and up to 10 years to vest in the full award), structural protections to minimize stock price volatility due to administration of this award and, thereafter, incentives for Elon to participate in the Board’s continued development of a framework for long-term CEO Succession. If Elon achieves all the performance milestones under this principle-based 2025 CEO Performance Award, his leadership will propel Tesla to become the most valuable company in history.”
Musk will have a lot of things to accomplish to receive the 423,743,904 shares, which are divided into 12 tranches.
However, the Board feels he is the right person for the job, and they want him to remain the CEO. This package should ensure that he stays with Tesla, as long as shareholders feel the same way.
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