Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) bull suggests taking profit as shorts get brought down to their knees
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) meteoric rise has been a particularly painful ride for the companys’ short-sellers, some of whom have been burned and brought down to their knees. This was despite some of Tesla’s most ardent supporters on Wall Street recommending that investors take profit as the stock approaches $500 per share.
Longtime Tesla bull Ben Kallo of Baird recently downgraded his rating on TSLA stock. While he boosted his TSLA price target from $355 to $525, he has given the electric car maker the equivalent of a “Hold” rating. In a note to clients, Kallo stated that the “risk/reward is more balanced following recent stock appreciation.” He also mentioned that investors’ expectations for the company now seem to be “fairly calibrated.”
With this in mind, Kallo, who has long maintained his “Buy” rating on TSLA stock and who has described himself as “Battle-Worn,” stated that some profit-taking might be in order. “After several years at an outperform rating, which included contentious arguments with (evidently) high-conviction bears, we recommend profit-taking,” he wrote.
After ending 2019 on a powerful note, Tesla stock has continued its meteoric rise. In the first few days of 2020 alone, TSLA shares have gained almost 18%. By Wednesday’s trading, the company’s stock came close to hitting the $500 a share level, further establishing itself as the most valuable carmaker in American history to date.
These recent surges have been particularly painful for the company’s short-sellers. Among those active in social media platforms such as Twitter alone, some prolific shorts have admitted that they are now trimming their position against the electric car maker. One of these is aggressive Tesla short-seller Mark Spiegel, who has been featured multiple times in mainstream media despite his frequent bouts of alarming misogyny and online bullying on social media.
Spiegel’s fund, Stanphyl Capital Management, was battered in 2019, and a good part of it was due to the firm’s short position against Tesla. After releasing a report to his clients where he admitted that his fund had underperformed the market yet again, Spiegel stated that he had trimmed Stanphyl’s TSLA short to just 10% of his fund. Previously, it was at 20%. This was a rare act for the short-seller, who is among the most aggressive against the company and its CEO, Elon Musk.
But amidst TSLA’s recent rise, it appears that the short-seller was brought down to his knees even more. In an update on Twitter, Spiegel stated that he has further slashed Stanphyl’s short against Tesla, reducing it from 10% to just 5% of his fund. With this in mind, it appears that Tesla is starting to become a bit too costly to short, at least for short-sellers like Spiegel. This is despite Tesla still being one of the most-shorted companies in the market.
This is something that the Baird analyst has stated in his recent note. Kallo noted that while it would be a good idea for investors to take profits at this level, shorting TSLA stock is still a very risky strategy. This is especially true since Tesla is now at a place where it is operating much more efficiently than before. “Despite (overly dynamic) short arguments since inception, the company has continued to grow and execute,” he noted.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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