Investor's Corner
Tesla shareholders will prosper, says veteran Wall St. analyst
Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) have seen a drop recently amidst last week’s reveal of the Model Y SUV and Elon Musk’s ongoing skirmish with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Despite these headwinds, Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster believes that the company will likely survive and thrive after it overcomes these recent challenges.
In a recent post, the 23-year finance veteran noted that while Tesla’s Q1 results and performance are still up in the air due to swing factors such as vehicles in transit, demand, and profitability, the company’s long-term view remains intact. Munster added that he believes patient TSLA investors will be rewarded in the future, as Tesla’s long-term strategy unravels.
“We believe Tesla will survive because we expect the company can continue to raise money based on their lead in undeniable long-term growth opportunities including EVs, autonomy, and renewable energy. We continue to believe that over the long-term Tesla will prosper, and patient shareholders will be rewarded. The electrification of vehicles is undeniable, and Tesla’s participation in that EV future is crucial given its leading family of vehicles along with optionality around energy capture/storage products and autonomous driving,” Munster wrote.
Munster is not alone in his continued support for Tesla. The electric car maker’s shares dipped sharply following the Model Y event, with the company’s critics coming out in full force to express their skepticism for the vehicle and its effects on Tesla’s business. Despite these reservations, a number of analysts have remained firm in their positive outlook for the electric car maker.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer maintained a Buy rating and a $450 price target for Tesla stock. Dorsheimer wrote that “we suspect the strategy with the Y will follow a similar trajectory to the 3, skimming the high end of the market with more profitable sales, as the company works to bring costs down and then in 2021 introduce more mainstream price points to drive a further competitive lead over traditional internal-combustion-based vehicles.”
-->Baird analyst Ben Kallo, a longtime Tesla bull, also kept his Outperform rating and $465 price target for the company. Kallo argues that “sales of the Model Y should be supported by [a] growing market for premium/luxury crossovers and SUV. We estimate the U.S. market to be over 1.5 million vehicles annually, based on historical sales.” Daniel Ives of Wedbush further asserted his Outperform rating and $390 price target on Tesla, stating that “while some have argued that the production of Model Y could potentially cannibalize Model 3 deliveries, in our opinion this is a smart and strategic move by Musk & Co. as they aim to further their leadership position in the electric vehicle market by now going after the hot SUV crossover market.”
Tesla shares are currently weighed down by several potential factors, one of which is Elon Musk’s continued clashes with the SEC. The agency had requested that Musk be held in contempt of court over his tweet last February 19, when he noted that Tesla would produce “around 500,000 cars in 2019.” The SEC argued that Musk’s tweet violated the settlement that it reached with the CEO last year following the now-infamous “funding secured” fiasco. Musk’s legal team has fought back, alleging that the agency is over-reaching in its efforts against the CEO.
Despite concerns about the Model Y and Elon Musk’s SEC troubles, Tesla’s numbers in the first quarter might prove to be a pleasant surprise. Elon Musk has noted that the first quarter would likely be unprofitable, though the mass deliveries of the Model 3 to Europe and China, as well as the push for the $35,000 Model 3 in the United States, might make a difference for the company’s numbers. Coupled with a recently leaked message hinting that Tesla is urging its employees to help deliver vehicles until the end of the month, the electric car maker’s Q1 2019 performance might prove better than expected.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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