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Investor's Corner

Tesla analysts weigh in as TSLA falls 8% following production and delivery report

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) experienced a steep drop on Thursday in the wake of the release of its Q1 2019 vehicle production and delivery report, which showed a roughly 30% decline in deliveries and a 12% drop in production. These declines were especially prominent in the Model S and Model X.

The electric car maker’s stock has always been polarizing, and this became even more prominent following the release of Tesla’s Q1 numbers. Analysts from both the bull and bear side have weighed in on Tesla’s results for the first quarter. Here are some of their takes:

RBC analysts took particular notice to the company’s Model S and Model X delivery numbers, which they called “very disappointing.” The analysts also estimated that the flagship vehicles’ numbers will translate to an over $1 billion shortfall in revenue for the company.

Cowen and Co analysts expressed their reservations about the company’s funds, stating that the delivery and transit details released by the electric car maker suggested that “cash was likely dangerously low” following Tesla’s payment of a $920 million convertible bond obligation in cash at the beginning of March.

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Analysts from JP Morgan gave Tesla an Underweight rating while lowering their price target to $200 from $215. The analysts noted that “Tesla’s 1Q19 vehicle production & deliveries report was substantially worse than expected.” The analysts also took note of the Model S and X’s decline in sales, stating the drop could be “implying a deceleration in underlying demand unrelated to temporary delivery difficulties (maybe due to tax credit expiration?).”

Canaccord Genuity analysts have taken a more optimistic stance, reiterating their Buy rating while adjusting their price target from $450 to $391. The analysts points out that while they were “disappointed in the shortfall of deliveries in Q1 versus expectations,” they “continue to believe that the new lower-priced Model 3 variant will spur additional demand.”

Loup Ventures remained quite optimistic about Tesla as well, despite admitting that the magnitude of the Model S and X miss was a surprise. The firm noted that it was “focused on underlying demand,” highlighting Tesla’s statement that it has “sufficient cash on hand.” The firm added that while it is “unlikely that Tesla will have to raise money in the Jun-19 quarter, (but) we believe raising money would be the right strategic move long-term.”

While Tesla stock is getting beaten down on Thursday, there have been no notable downgrades by any brokerages so far. Tesla shares are currently rated “Buy” or higher by 12 of the 30 brokerages covering the company, 7 rated the company with a “Hold,” and 11 kept a “Sell” or lower rating. Part of this could be due to Elon Musk already setting expectations early in March, when he stated that Tesla might not be profitable this quarter.

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Tesla’s production and delivery figures for the first quarter highlights the company’s growing pains as it starts pushing the Model 3 to international markets. In Q1 2019, Tesla produced a total of 77,100 vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X. Total deliveries declined to 63,000 vehicles, which is comprised of approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

As of writing, Tesla shares are trading -7.75% at $269.19.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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SpaceX Starship Flight 13 aborted at Zero and Musk just told us what broke

Four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-zero, forcing SpaceX to scrub Starship Flight 13 Thursday.

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SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch attempt Thursday evening at the last possible moment, after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the startup sequence. The 90-minute window had opened at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, and the countdown had proceeded without issue all day, with more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen being fully loaded into the rocket before the automated abort triggered. SpaceX’s launch directors posted on X, “Standing down from today’s flight test attempt,” and shut down the livestream shortly after.

Musk confirmed the root cause within hours. “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” he wrote on X. “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.” SpaceX engineers began draining propellant tanks immediately and Booster 20 was rolled back to its hangar for inspection.

SpaceX comes with a slew of changes for Starship Flight 13

 

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The timing adds a layer of significance that did not exist during any of the previous 12 Starship flights. This is the first time SpaceX has attempted to launch Starship since the company made its stock market debut in June, listing under ticker SPCX at $135 per share. Public investors are now watching every Starship outcome in real time, and a last-second abort carries more visibility than it would have six months ago.

Flight 13 was designed to be one of the most consequential tests in the program’s history. It was set to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational payload Starship has ever attempted to deploy. Six of those satellites carried external cameras to photograph Starship’s heat shield from the outside during flight, which would act as a self-inspection approach SpaceX has never attempted before. The mission also needed to complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped on Flight 12 in May after losing an engine during ascent. That Flight 12 booster also flipped 90 degrees off course during its boostback burn when five engines failed to reignite.

SpaceX has not announced an official next launch date. Musk’s “early next week” window points to July 21 or 22 at the earliest, pending the engine swap and a return to the pad.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid CEO dispels any rumors of bankruptcy: ‘So far from the facts’

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Credit: Lucid

Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli responded to rumors of an imminent bankruptcy that was reportedly being mulled after a report stated the automaker was working with the firm AlixPartners to iron out its next steps.

The company felt a massive loss on Wall Street yesterday, as the report essentially pushed the stock down as much as 55 percent on Tuesday.

The report, published initially by Eletric-Vehicles.com, claimed Lucid was essentially in dire straits and was told by AlixPartners, a commonly used restructuring advisor, to either take shares private or file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Lucid’s head of Communications, Nick Twork, immediately challenged the report and stated the company “has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year.”

Now, the company’s CEO is chiming in as well, stating that the report is “so far from the facts that they require a direct response.”

Napoli said:

“Lucid is not considering bankruptcy or a transaction to take the company private. Those reports are false. The Board did not explore either scenario. Period.

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As disclosed in our most recent quarterly filing, Lucid has sufficient liquidity to fund its operations well into next year.

We work with outside advisors to improve operational performance and execution. They are not advising Lucid on a take-private transaction or bankruptcy, and any suggestion that they have recommended either course of action to management or the Board is false.

My priority is clear: turn this company around. That is where the leadership team and I are focused.

I look forward to providing a full update during our quarterly earnings call on August 4th.”

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It seems pretty clear that Lucid is confident things will be okay, and, to be honest, they should not have much to worry about, especially considering the company has been backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for years. It has solid financial backing, and its sales, while weak, are pretty much right on par with a company of this age.

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Lucid also sent a Cease & Desist letter to the publication for their report.

Lucid shares have rebounded nicely and are up nearly 21 percent at the time of publication. As soon as the company dispelled the rumors of bankruptcy yesterday, the stock began to climb back toward more reasonable levels.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Credit: Lucid

Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group has denied rumors of an imminent bankruptcy after a report from this morning sent the stock on a dramatic drop on Wall Street, seeing losses of more than 40 percent during trading hours.

Lucid’s Director of Communications, Nick Twork, responded to the report from Eletric-Vehicles.com, which stated the company’s restructuring advisor, AlixPartners, was asked to review two decisions: taking Lucid shares private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The report also claims AlixPartners told the Lucid board to “concentrate on Gravity production while improving its quality, and to temporarily hold back the Lucid Air, the sedan that has defined the company since its launch.”

Twork said:

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Shares rebounded after the response to the report, halving its losses as the trading day neared 3 p.m. Eastern.

Lucid has struggled to get its sales off the ground and into more respectable numbers, but the company is in its early years, when things are hard to begin with. It is also backed by several notable investors, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has nearly limitless money and likely would not ditch an investment of this size so soon.

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Lucid shares were down just 14 percent at the time of publication, a far cry from the 55 percent its losses topped out at during the day.

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