Investor's Corner
Tesla’s (TSLA) Q2 2019 earnings call: Here are Wall Street’s estimates
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to hold its second-quarter earnings call after the markets close on Wednesday. With the electric car maker exceeding expectations on its vehicle production and deliveries, all eyes are now on the company as it tries to return to profitability, which it was able to achieve in the third and fourth quarter of 2018.
Bill Selesky, an analyst with Argus Research, stated that the story of Tesla’s second-quarter immediately changed when it reported its production and delivery figures, which exceeded expectations. “We are still hearing that demand trends bode well for Tesla. What remains to be seen is whether Tesla will rein in its costs and expenses and improve its margins,” he said.
Garrett Nelson, an analyst with CFRA Research, noted that investors would likely be focused on whether the company will keep its initial forecast of selling 360,000-400,000 vehicles in 2019. “The ability of the stock to move higher will really depend on the (sales) guidance. We are still skeptical that they will hit that goal,” the CFRA analyst stated.
Overall, analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted quarterly loss of $0.39 per share, a notable improvement over the $3.06 loss the company reported in Q2 2018. Wall Street also expects Tesla to return to non-GAAP profitability by the fourth quarter.
Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that aggregates estimates from Wall Street analysts, buy-side analysts, company executives, fund managers, academics and others, has noted that it expects Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $0.25 per share.
-->As for revenue, FactSet expects Tesla to report sales of $6.5 billion in the second quarter, an improvement over the $4 billion the company reported in Q2 2018 and the $4.5 billion in the first quarter. Estimize, for its part, expects Tesla to report sales of $6.6 billion.
Tesla has been on what appears to be a path towards recovery in July. TSLA shares have recovered 14% this month, following a 21% recovery in June. Due to the steep drop in the electric car maker’s shares following the first quarter, Tesla remains down 23% for 2019. This compares unfavorably with the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which have gained 19% and 17%, respectively.
Selesky’s statement about the Tesla story changing with the results of the second-quarter vehicle production and delivery report mirrors the sentiments of some of the company’s supporters in Wall Street. In a recent note, for example, Baird analyst Ben Kallo stated that Tesla’s further execution, starting with its second-quarter earnings report, will “help restore credibility and create a challenging short environment” despite the “overly negative” narrative surrounding the company.
Even Barclays analyst Brian Johnson, a Tesla bear, has issued a note stating that he sees the electric car maker heading to a nearly profitable Q2 earnings report. “Increasing 2Q estimates as TSLA did indeed ‘move the metal,’” Johnson wrote.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +0.84% at $260.36 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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