Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) second-quarter for 2021 saw the electric car maker post $11.958 billion in revenue. The results, which were discussed in the Q2 2021 Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Monday, July 26.
Tesla’s second-quarter was impressive, with the electric car maker producing a total of 206,421 vehicles, an astounding number considering that Q2 was beset by a number of headwinds. The company also delivered 201,250 vehicles comprised of 199,360 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 1,890 Model S.
Tesla’s strong Q2 results were due in part to the Model Y’s accelerating ramp in the United States and the all-electric crossover’s momentum in China. Tesla also finally started deliveries of the new Model S Plaid and Model S Long Range, which are high-margin vehicles.
The following are the key points in Tesla’s Q2 2021 Update Letter.
Revenue
Tesla beat expectations in Q2 2021, reporting a revenue of $11.958 billion for the second quarter, representing total revenue growth of 98% year-over-year. In comparison, Wall Street expected Tesla’s Q2 2021 revenue to be at $11.299 billion, with the highest estimates pointing to revenue of $12.827 billion and the lowest estimates pointing to $9.5 billion of revenue.
Earnings
Tesla also beat expectations for earnings, with the company posting earnings per share of $1.45 in the first quarter. Wall Street, on the other hand, expected Tesla to report a gain of $0.98 per share.
-->Profitability
Tesla posted a GAAP operating income of $1.3 billion in the second quarter, with an 11.0% operating margin in Q2 2021. The company also posted $1.1 billion of GAAP net income and $1.6 billion of non-GAAP net income. GAAP automotive gross margin also stood at an impressive 28.4%. This was the first time that Tesla exceeded $1 billion of GAAP net income in its history.
Cash
Tesla had an operating cash flow less CapEx (free cash flow) of $619 million in the second quarter. The company also saw a decrease of $912 million in its cash and cash equivalents, resulting in its war chest now standing at $16.2 billion as of Q2 2021.
Gigafactories
Tesla has provided some updates on the company’s multiple Gigafactories that are under construction. According to Tesla, commissioning has already started in some areas of Gigafactory Texas. Gigafactory Shanghai has completed its transition as Tesla’s primary vehicle export hub as well. Over in Europe, Tesla is focusing on growing import volumes to the region as Giga Berlin continues its equipment tests.
4680 Cells
Tesla’s Q2 2021 Update has provided a number of key updates about the development of the company’s 4680 cells. For one, the company has successfully validated performance and lifetime of its 4680 cells. Manufacturing validation of the 4680 cell production lines at the Kato Road facility are nearing their end as well. Last but not least, internal crash tests of 4680 structural battery packs have so far been successful.
Tesla Energy
Tesla Energy hit its stride in the second quarter, with battery storage deployments tripling in Q2 2021. This increase was primarily due to several Megapack projects. The company noted, however, that while Powerwall demand is exceptional, supply chain challenges have kept the home battery system backlogged. As for the Solar Roof, deployments reached 85 MW in the second quarter, more than tripling year-over-year.
Tesla’s Q2 2021 Update Letter could be accessed below.
-->Tesla q2 2021 Results by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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