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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2021 earnings soundly beats Wall St’s estimates

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) second-quarter for 2021 saw the electric car maker post $11.958 billion in revenue. The results, which were discussed in the Q2 2021 Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Monday, July 26.

Tesla’s second-quarter was impressive, with the electric car maker producing a total of 206,421 vehicles, an astounding number considering that Q2 was beset by a number of headwinds. The company also delivered 201,250 vehicles comprised of 199,360 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 1,890 Model S.

Tesla’s strong Q2 results were due in part to the Model Y’s accelerating ramp in the United States and the all-electric crossover’s momentum in China. Tesla also finally started deliveries of the new Model S Plaid and Model S Long Range, which are high-margin vehicles. 

Tesla Model Y body shop in Gigafactory Texas. (Credit: Tesla)

The following are the key points in Tesla’s Q2 2021 Update Letter.

Revenue

Tesla beat expectations in Q2 2021, reporting a revenue of $11.958 billion for the second quarter, representing total revenue growth of 98% year-over-year. In comparison, Wall Street expected Tesla’s Q2 2021 revenue to be at $11.299 billion, with the highest estimates pointing to revenue of $12.827 billion and the lowest estimates pointing to $9.5 billion of revenue. 

Earnings

Tesla also beat expectations for earnings, with the company posting earnings per share of $1.45 in the first quarter. Wall Street, on the other hand, expected Tesla to report a gain of $0.98 per share. 

Profitability

Tesla posted a GAAP operating income of $1.3 billion in the second quarter, with an 11.0% operating margin in Q2 2021. The company also posted $1.1 billion of GAAP net income and $1.6 billion of non-GAAP net income. GAAP automotive gross margin also stood at an impressive 28.4%. This was the first time that Tesla exceeded $1 billion of GAAP net income in its history.

Cash

Tesla had an operating cash flow less CapEx (free cash flow) of $619 million in the second quarter.  The company also saw a decrease of $912 million in its cash and cash equivalents, resulting in its war chest now standing at $16.2 billion as of Q2 2021.

Tesla Model Y paint shop in Gigafactory Berlin. (Credit: Tesla)

Gigafactories

Tesla has provided some updates on the company’s multiple Gigafactories that are under construction. According to Tesla, commissioning has already started in some areas of Gigafactory Texas. Gigafactory Shanghai has completed its transition as Tesla’s primary vehicle export hub as well. Over in Europe, Tesla is focusing on growing import volumes to the region as Giga Berlin continues its equipment tests. 

4680 Cells

Tesla’s Q2 2021 Update has provided a number of key updates about the development of the company’s 4680 cells. For one, the company has successfully validated performance and lifetime of its 4680 cells. Manufacturing validation of the 4680 cell production lines at the Kato Road facility are nearing their end as well. Last but not least, internal crash tests of 4680 structural battery packs have so far been successful.

Tesla Energy 

Tesla Energy hit its stride in the second quarter, with battery storage deployments tripling in Q2 2021. This increase was primarily due to several Megapack projects. The company noted, however, that while Powerwall demand is exceptional, supply chain challenges have kept the home battery system backlogged. As for the Solar Roof, deployments reached 85 MW in the second quarter, more than tripling year-over-year. 

Tesla’s Q2 2021 Update Letter could be accessed below.

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Tesla q2 2021 Results by Simon Alvarez on Scribd

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Robotaxi gets a massive upgrade in Nevada

Nevada regulators just approved a massive expansion of Tesla’s robotaxi fleet across the entire county.

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Concept art of a Tesla Cybercab in Las Vegas Strip as rendered via Grok

Tesla’s robotaxi footprint in Nevada just grew by roughly 500 times in a single regulatory vote.

The Nevada Transportation Authority approved Tesla’s full Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit on Thursday, clearing the way for the company to deploy up to 5,000 driverless vehicles across Clark County over the next 12 months. The decision came during a four hour general session meeting that Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt watched live and reported on X, noting the vote replaces the interim order that had limited Tesla to just 10 robotaxis on a narrow stretch of the Las Vegas Strip.

That earlier cap, covered here after it surfaced on August 13, came with restrictions that looked stricter than what Tesla runs in Austin: a 45 mph speed ceiling, no airport pickups, and a geofence confined to the Strip corridor. The new approval extends Tesla’s operating authority to all of Clark County, with room to request an even wider geofence across the state.

Tesla representatives at the meeting said they have no intention of putting 5,000 cars on the road right away. Commercial rides are expected to start within 30 days, pending vehicle inspections, insurance filings, and fare approval, the standard steps every robotaxi operator in Nevada has had to clear.

Tesla’s own Robotaxi account replied to the news with a short line, The golden future is upon us.

The timing lines up with Tesla’s broader robotaxi push this month. The company is preparing to open Cybercab rides to the public in Austin as soon as this month, and it opened a sweepstakes for riders to win a seat at the launch event. Tesla filed its original application for a 5,000 vehicle Nevada fleet back in June, a request regulators trimmed to 10 vehicles when they issued the interim order in July. Thursday’s vote effectively grants the number Tesla asked for from the start.

Zoox, the Amazon owned robotaxi operator, has run in Nevada since 2025 and was capped at 100 vehicles before Thursday’s decision. Tesla’s new ceiling puts it well ahead of that comparison on paper, though the company has said its actual fleet size will depend on how quickly FSD v15 rolls out, the software update executives have called the gateway to scaling unsupervised robotaxi operations nationwide.

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SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff

Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.

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Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.

The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.

Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.

Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry

None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.

The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.

Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley

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Credit: Tesla

In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.

Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.

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Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.

The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”

Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”

Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”

Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.

Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.

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