Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings: Wall Street’s reactions
Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 results delivered the highest quarterly revenue in company history, and Wall Street analysts are taking notice.
Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 results delivered record quarterly revenues, and Wall Street is taking notice.
The automaker reported $28.1 billion in revenue, topping estimates of $26.4 billion, while non-GAAP EPS landed at $0.50 versus $0.54 expected. Despite the slight earnings miss, Tesla’s free cash flow surged to nearly $4.0 billion and total cash on hand jumped to $41.6 billion, a new high.
The following are some of Wall Street’s reactions to Tesla’s third-quarter results.
Mizuho
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh maintained an “Outperform” rating on Tesla and raised the firm’s price target to $485 from $460 per share, pointing to Tesla’s next-generation autonomy roadmap. “We see 2026E better with stronger FSD traction and deliveries. TSLA is focusing on AI5/HW5 with ~40x gains gen/gen, while ramping Robotaxis and FSD into 2026E–27E.”
Rakesh also highlighted that Mizuho sees Tesla as “well-positioned” to lead “physical AI with Cybercab/FSD traction, humanoid longer term, offset by near-term demand headwinds.”
Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated his “Outperform” rating and $600 price target on Tesla. As per the analyst, “Tesla reported its FY3Q25 results featuring beats on the top-line while missing bottom-line expectations as the company benefitted from a pull-forward in its delivery segment with greater strength across EMEA and APAC while making gradual progress with its autonomous and energy businesses.”
He also pointed to Musk’s upcoming compensation vote as a key inflection point: “We believe it will be approved by a wide margin despite some opposition,” Ives noted. “That will be incremental to keeping Musk as a war-time CEO as the company enters a critical AI expansion phase.”
Baird
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated his “Outperform” rating and $548 per share price target for Tesla following the company’s Q3 2025 earnings results. He praised Tesla’s energy segment for delivering record results.
“Energy demand is particularly high given grid constraints in several regions and a rapid build-out of infrastructure. We expect this piece of the business to capture more attention in the remainder of 2025 and moving into 2026 with the tipping points for longer-term initiatives (Optimus, robotaxi, etc.) more opaque,” Kallo noted.
Deepwater
Meanwhile, Deepwater’s Gene Munster struck a more measured tone. “The September numbers and earnings call were largely uneventful,” Munster said, adding that Tesla’s decision to move cautiously with robotaxis in Austin is the right one.
“Shares of TSLA traded down following Elon’s comment that he remains paranoid about the safety of Robotaxi given any accidents would represent a significant step back in terms of the public’s confidence in the fleet,” he wrote. Munster, however, emphasized that Tesla’s cash position is a major strength: “They have enough cash to will Elon’s vision into reality. It may take a lot longer than many expect, but they’ve got the cash to get there.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
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For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
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When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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