Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) stock is starting to resemble Netflix before its massive rally in 2011
The past few months have challenging for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors, but if recent signs are any indication, it appears that the electric car maker might show some recovery in the stock market soon. According to an advisory firm founder, Tesla stock has all but reached a point that is incredibly similar to that of Netflix back in 2011, right before it experienced an eight-year stretch of growth that propelled the company to its current place at the top of the on-demand streaming market.
Tesla currently trades at or near the $180 level, which corresponds to roughly half of the company’s peak of $385 last year. While this might feel alarming, it should be noted that Netflix’s investors experienced something far more harrowing back in 2011, when the company’s shares saw a full 80% stock decline. After a price increase and CEO Reed Hastings’ announcement that Netflix will be separating its streaming and DVD-by-mail business, the company saw a loss of 800,000 subscribers in a single quarter. That was a time when the company only had 24 million subscribers as well.
At the core of Netflix’s decision then was its sincere belief that online streaming services are the future of on-demand entertainment. They also believed in their pricing power. Eddie Yoon, a think tank and advisory firm founder, noted that Netflix’s high-stakes bets paid off. Since that 80% decline back in 2011, the company has increased its user base to 60 million in the US and 150 million worldwide. Netflix stock had also increased 39 times than its low point back in 2011.
Tesla is in a similar boat. Just like Netflix in 2011, the electric car maker is dealing with the fallout of a quarter that rendered lower-than-expected numbers, which, together with several factors, has caused the company to post a loss after two profitable quarters. Nevertheless, Tesla is making a big bet on its belief that the demand for electric vehicles will grow exponentially over the next few years. So far, the company seems to be right on the money in this sense, as EV sales across the globe are increasing. In 2018 alone, electric car sales accounted for 2% of total new vehicles sold in the US. A study by AAA also noted that 20% of Americans want to own an electric car.
Yoon notes that if there is anything that Tesla could learn from Netflix, it would be to improve its communication. During Netflix’s steep drop in 2011, the company performed subpar when it came to communicating with its user base. This was true during times when Netflix would change its pricing, or if it would change aspects of its business. Tesla is quite around the same boat. Its pricing power is strong, and contrary to Bernstein’s recent note, Tesla’s brand holds a lot of value for an increasing number of customers. Despite this, the electric car maker still has notable areas of improvement when it comes to communication, partly evidenced by the misinformation surrounding the company today. If Tesla can refine this, then the company’s potential recovery would likely be smoother than expected.
The recent comparisons of Tesla to Netflix in 2011 appear to have been triggered by rumors that an investor who took a particular interest in the streaming giant at its lowest point. These rumors were recently related by Will Meade, a former PM at Goldman Sachs and a former editor at Forbes. “Rumor swirling that a big activist has taken a stake in Tesla $TSLA and he/she said it reminds them of $NFLX in 2011. Explains the almost $3 million of $TSLA Aug $250 calls swept right at the open. Could it be Icahn!” he wrote, referring to billionaire investor Carl Celian Icahn.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading at 5.20% at $188.42 per share.
Investor's Corner
Tesla crushes Wall Street expectations, beats delivery estimates by over 15 percent
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat Wall Street expectations of 406,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 by reporting 480,126 deliveries for the three months ending in June.
Tesla reported it delivered 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y units, while 12,364 Model S, Model X, and Cybertrucks switched hands during the quarter. The Model S and Model X were officially sunset this past quarter and will no longer be part of the company’s Production & Delivery reports moving forward.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, ANNIHILATING Wall Street expectations of 406,000. Production was reported at 451,758.
Deliveries:
Model 3/Y: 467,762
Other Models: 12,364Production:
Model 3/Y: 442,936
Other Models: 8,822 https://t.co/TTHwQAsKt8 pic.twitter.com/7qI4Zj6FE5— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 2, 2026
The quarter is a pleasant surprise and a good rebound from Q1, when Tesla slightly missed the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 cars by reporting 358,023 deliveries for the first three motnhs of the year.
Energy storage deployments also provided some strength in Tesla’s delivery report, hitting 13.5 GWh for Q2. This is a particular division of Tesla’s business that has been overwhelmingly robust over the past few years, truly being a strong point of the company’s overall model.
For the year, Tesla analysts still predict deliveries to trend in the 1.69 million unit region, a modest 3 to 5 percent increase from the 1.64 million cars the company delivered last year. Tesla will likely return to more sequential and noticeable year-over-year growth as the Cybercab project starts to ramp up considerably in the next few years.
Tesla has some other potential catalysts to spur vehicle deliveries, too. Not only is it expecting Cybercab to truly start making a change in the next few years, but other vehicles could be entering the company’s lineup.
Tesla sends production Cybercab with no steering wheel, pedals to on-road testing
The slightly longer Model Y L has been a highly speculated release candidate in the U.S. It has already done incredibly well in China, and U.S. buyers have been wanting slightly more interior space than the Model Y. Now that the Model X is gone, it is more needed than ever.
Q2 highlights a pretty stable automotive division within Tesla, and no true concerns arise from these figures, especially considering it managed to beat expectations convincingly.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
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