Investor's Corner
Tesla shares (TSLA) recover despite China’s new import tariffs
After showing recovery on Tuesday, Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) tumbled during pre-market trading on Wednesday amid China’s imposition of new tariffs over US-made products, including electric vehicles like Tesla. Before the opening bell on Tuesday, $TSLA shares were trading down 5.38% at $253.13. The company’s stocks began rebounding later during the day, however, bouncing back from its pre-market dive, up 1.55% and trading at $271.82 per share as of writing.
China’s announcement of its tariffs on US goods comes on the heels of the Trump’s administration’s plans to impose duties on $50 billion worth of Chinese products, including industrial, transport, and medical materials. According to a Reuters report, China Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang claimed that China had been open to resolving the trade dispute through negotiations, but the US had not been responsive so far.
“The best opportunities for resolving the issues through dialogue and negotiations have been repeatedly missed by the U.S. side,” Shuang said.
It only took China 11 hours to respond to Washington’s tariffs in kind, releasing a list of duties on key American imports. Among these are US-made products such as Tesla’s electric cars, Ford’s vehicles from its Lincoln brand, General Dynamics Corp’s Gulfstream jets, and Brown-Forman Corp’s Jack Daniels’ whiskey.
While the two countries’ tariffs on crucial imports appear alarming, Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said that it would not be surprising if negotiations between America and China would happen soon. According to the economist, it is worth noting that only announcements of the tariffs have been made so far. Neither country has called for enforcement of the duties yet.
“The assumption was China would not respond too aggressively and avoid escalating tensions. China’s response is a surprise for some people. It’s more of a game of brinkmanship, making it clear what the cost would be, in the hopes that both sides can come to agreement and none of these tariffs will come into force,” Evans-Pritchard said.
China’s tariffs, if ever they do get enforced, would likely affect Tesla’s operations in the country. Tesla, after all, is currently in intense competition with local electric car makers in China. As we noted in a previous report, Elon Musk brought up the issue of import taxes that American cars face on the country. Tesla is also engaged in negotiation with officials from Shanghai for the construction of a facility speculated to be the Model Y’s future factory.
J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated his Underweight rating on Tesla’s stocks, citing the ongoing production difficulties that the company is facing with the Model 3. Brinkman also lowered his estimates and stock price target to $185 from $190. RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak kept his Neutral rating on $TSLA, though he dropped his stock price target from $380 to $305, according to a MarketWatch report.
While Tesla’s shares took a dive during pre-market trading, IHS Markit Managing Director for Asia Pacific James Chao noted in a statement to Bloomberg that Tesla’s woes are relatively minor. Chao further stated the current challenges that Tesla’s shares are facing are manageable, especially since Elon Musk seems to work best when he is driven into a corner.
“(Elon Musk) is really at the edge here. I think this is the environment that works best in, under a lot of pressure. With the tweet on April Fools, you can see that he thrives in the moment. I think that you can see that he is performing, to a certain extent, 2,020 vehicles in the last week of April, was far beyond what analysts, in general, were looking for.
“The overall story just for Tesla is still intact, which is, while large automakers produce vehicles in every single segment of the market, including segments of the market where they can’t make money; Tesla focuses on one segment — this electric vehicle market — which is highly valued. And I think that story still continues despite short-term cycles.”
As we noted in a previous report, Tesla’s first quarter production and delivery report listed a 40% increase in production from Q4 2017. Tesla was also able to manufacture 2,020 Model 3 during the last week of March. Delivery figures were also strong, with the company delivering 29,980 vehicles in total during the first three months of the year. Among this number, 8.180 were Model 3.
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst: ‘near zero chance’ Elon Musk’s $1T comp package is rejected
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
A Tesla analyst says there is “zero chance” that CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package is rejected, a testament to the loyalty and belief many shareholders and investors have in the frontman.
Tesla investors will vote on November 6 at the annual Shareholder Meeting to approve a new compensation package for Musk, revealed by the company’s Board of Directors earlier this month.
The package, if approved, would give Musk the opportunity to earn $1 trillion in stock, an ownership concentration of over 27 percent (a major request of Musk’s), and a solidified future at the company.
The Tesla Community on X, the social media platform Musk bought in 2023, is overwhelmingly in favor of the pay package, though a handful of skeptics remain.
Nevertheless, the big pulls of this vote are held by proxy firms and other large-scale investors. Two of them, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis, said they would be voting against Musk’s proposed compensation plan.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
Today, the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) said it would vote in favor of Musk’s newly-proposed pay day, making it the first large-scale shareholder to announce it would support the CEO’s pay.
One analyst said that Musk’s payday is inevitable. Gary Black of the Future Fund said today there is a “near-zero chance” that shareholders will allow Musk’s pay package to be rejected:
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
He added an alternative perspective from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who said that he had a better chance of starting for the New York Yankees than the comp package not being approved.
There is a near zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting. As Wedbush analyst Dan Ives (@divestech) colorfully put it in a Yahoo Finance interview on October 23rd: “I have a better chance of starting for…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 27, 2025
Black’s the Future Fund sold its Tesla holdings earlier this year. He explained that the firm believed the company’s valuation was too disconnected from fundamentals, citing the P/E ratio of 188x and declining earnings estimates.
The firm maintained its $310 price target, and shares were trading at $356.90 that day.
Shares closed at $452.42 today.
The latest predictions from betting platform Kalshi have shown Musk’s comp package has a 94 percent chance of being approved:
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 20, 2025
Tesla analysts are expecting big things from the stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) after many firms made price target adjustments following the Q3 Earnings Call.
Last Wednesday, Tesla reported earnings with record revenue but missed EPS estimates.
It blew delivery expectations out of the water with its strongest quarter in company history, but Tesla’s future relies on the development of autonomous vehicles, robotics, and AI, which many bullish firms highlight as major strengths.
The earnings call reiterated those points, along with the belief that Tesla CEO Elon Musk should be rewarded with a newly proposed pay package that would enable him to gain $1 trillion in wealth if he comes through on a lengthy list of performance tranches.
Nine Wall Street firms made adjustments to their outlook on Tesla shares in the form of price target increases since last Wednesday’s call, all of which are indications of big expectations for the stock moving forward.
Here are the nine firms that made moves:
- Truist – $280 to $406, reiterated Hold rating
- Roth MKM – $395 to $404, reiterated Buy rating
- Cantor Fitzgerald – $355 to $510, reiterated Overweight rating
- Deutsche Bank – $435 to $440, reiterated Buy rating
- Mizhuo – $450 to $485, reiterated Outperform rating
- New Street Research – $465 to $520, reiterated Buy rating
- Evercore ISI – $235 to $300, reiterated In Line rating
- Freedom Capital Markets – $338 to $406, upgraded to Hold rating
- China Renaissance – $349 to $380, reiterated Hold rating
The boosts in price target are largely due to Tesla’s future projects, as Roth MKM, Cantor Fitzgerald, Mizuho, New Street Research, and Evercore ISI all explicitly mention Tesla’s autonomy, robotics, and AI potential as the main factors for its price target boosts.
Cantor Fitzgerald raises Tesla PT To $510, citing Cybercab, Semi, and AI momentum
It is no surprise that many firms are adjusting their outlook on Tesla shares considerably in an effort to prepare for the company’s transition to even more of a tech company than a car company.
The issue with many analysts is that they treat the company’s vehicle deliveries as the main indicator of value.
However, Tesla has a robust energy division, which was a major contributor to the company’s strong margins and gross profit in Q3, as well as its prowess in robotics and AI.
Additionally, the company is seen as a key player in the autonomy field, especially after launching driverless rides on a Robotaxi platform in Austin and expanding a similar program in the Bay Area.
Tesla shares were up over 5 percent at 12:18 p.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla warns Elon Musk could step down if shareholders reject pay plan
Denholm’s letter emphasized Tesla is at a “critical inflection point” as it scales AI-driven projects such as Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus.
Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm has urged shareholders to approve CEO Elon Musk’s new 2025 Performance Award ahead of the November 6 Annual Meeting, warning that rejecting it could risk losing his leadership.
In a letter posted on Tesla’s official handle on X, Denholm stated that the company must “foster an environment that motivates Elon to achieve great things,” or risk losing “his time, talent, and vision,” which she described as essential to Tesla’s success.
Retaining Musk amid Tesla’s critical transition
Denholm’s letter emphasized Tesla is at a “critical inflection point” as it scales AI-driven projects such as Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus. She argued that Musk’s leadership remains vital as Tesla pushes toward becoming “the leading provider of autonomous solutions and the most valuable company in the world.” Without a new performance-based plan, Denholm warned, Musk could step away, potentially costing Tesla significant long-term value.
“If we fail to foster an environment that motivates Elon to achieve great things through an equitable pay-for-performance plan, we run the risk that he gives up his executive position, and Tesla may lose his time, talent, and vision, which have been essential to delivering extraordinary shareholder returns,” the Tesla Board Chair stated.
The board’s proposed 2025 Performance Award aligns Musk’s compensation with ambitious targets while extending his commitment for at least 7.5 more years. Denholm stated that the vote is a defining moment for Tesla’s future direction, adding that the plan was designed to keep Musk focused on innovation while maintaining governance discipline. “A vote here is both an endorsement of Elon’s vision and a vote for Tesla’s carefully tailored strategy,” she said.
Musk’s pay history is rooted in performance
Elon Musk’s pay history with Tesla has long been unconventional. For years, he has declined a regular salary, instead directly tying his earnings to Tesla’s ability to meet ambitious production and market-value goals. His 2018 performance award, approved by shareholders at a time when Tesla had a market cap of just about $59 billion, granted him stock options only when Tesla reached aggressive growth milestones, such as growing the company’s market cap to $650 billion.
At the time, the milestones included $50 billion additions to Tesla’s market cap, which were considered by many to be unrealistic. Those goals were ultimately met by the electric vehicle maker, but a Delaware court later rescinded the plan in January 2024, calling it an “unfathomable sum.”
Tesla shareholders reaffirmed support for Musk’s pay in 2024, even as legal disputes continued. The board then issued an interim equity package valued around $29 billion while developing a new long-term plan earlier this year. Since then, Tesla’s Board has proposed Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, which could be worth nearly $1 trillion, but only if Musk were to grow Tesla into the world’s most valuable company with a market cap of $8.5 trillion, among other aggressive and ambitious targets.
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