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Tesla short-seller goes long on TSLA: “The story has become too compelling to ignore”

[Credit: DarkSoldier 360/YouTube]

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is up more than 5% on Tuesday’s intraday amidst news that prominent activist short-seller Andrew Left of Citron Research, who currently has a lawsuit against Elon Musk over his “funding secured” tweet last August, has gone long on the electric car maker. In a recent note published on Tuesday, Citron noted that it is reversing its opinion on Tesla because the company’s story has “become too compelling to ignore.”

Citron Research states that while mainstream media had been largely focused on Elon Musk’s “eccentric, outlandish and at times offensive behavior,” it has failed to notice that the auto industry is currently being disrupted by Tesla, particularly the Model 3. Left notes that simply speaking, “Tesla is destroying the competition,” as shown by the dominance of the Model 3 in the United States’ midsize luxury car market and the Model S’ reign in the large luxury car segment.

“It is in that spirit, and with a great deal of analysis and due diligence that we can say for the first time, Citron is long Tesla as the Model 3 is a proven hit, and many of the TSLA warning signs have proven not to be significant.”

A key driver of Citron’s turnaround for Tesla is the lack of legitimate competitors in the premium electric car segment. In his classic bold fashion, Left noted that when it comes to electric vehicle sales in the United States, “it looks like it is the competition that is taking the Ambien.” Citron further stated that a deep dive into vehicle sales data reveals that the Model 3’s demand is new this year, and that it’s pulling directly from Tesla’s competitors. Left also pointed out that the declining sales figures of Tesla’s competitors at a time when the Model 3 is being ramped show that consumers seem to be moving away from legacy brands.

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The decline of the Tesla Model 3’s competitors. [Credit: Citron Research]

“People who are making their current car choices are moving away from other brands. – It is not just pent-up demand from people on the reservation list. If it were pent-up demand, those car classes wouldn’t be exhibiting such sharp declines year over year. TSLA is not just pulling customers from BMW and Mercedes but also from Toyota and Honda. Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry.”

Ultimately, Citron Research notes that it would not wish to be short TSLA at this point in the company’s history. Even if Tesla does not meet its profitability goals this Q3, Citron states that the company’s Gigafactory 3 project in Shanghai, the impending entrance of the Model 3 to the European market, Gigafactory 4 in Europe, the upcoming Tesla Semi and Model Y, and the rollout of the company’s first autonomous features with later iterations of Software V9, could allow the electric car maker to be added to the S&P 500 sometime next year.

Apart from the dominance of Tesla’s electric cars in their respective segments, Left also states that recent moves by the company’s largest shareholders suggest confidence in TSLA’s future. Among these are T Rowe Price, Baillie Gifford, and Fidelity — all of which are sticking with the company despite the controversies surrounding Elon Musk. T Rowe Price even increased its stake on Tesla in Q3, buying 5.5 million shares last quarter.

“Tesla is dominating the industry with no advertising, no unions, no dealer network. Tesla has the most miles driven data by several orders of magnitude. No tequila, flamethrowers, or short shorts- just a revolution in the transportation industry.”

Citron Research points out that it is still pushing through with its case against Elon Musk over his “funding secured” tweet last August. Nevertheless, Left admitted that while he is not a fan of Tesla’s “overconfident CEO, (Citron) cannot dismiss what we are seeing in the marketplace.”

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Tesla has been showing signs that it is hitting its stride with the Model 3 production ramp — an endeavor that has cost the company and its CEO greatly. The company’s struggle to bring the Model 3 to market — aptly dubbed by the CEO as “manufacturing hell” — has been described by Elon Musk as one of the most painful and difficult experiences he’s ever had in his career. Tesla appears to have hit its stride in Q3, though, producing a total of 80,142 electric cars including 53,239 Model 3, as well as delivering a total of 83,500 vehicles, comprised of 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X.

Since then, Tesla has been exhibiting signs that its production ramp for the Model 3 is going smoothly. This October has seen multiple large batches of VIN registrations this month so far, and the company has also unveiled a new variant of the Model 3 aimed at more budget-conscious reservation holders. Tesla has also announced that its Q3 2018 earnings call will be held this Wednesday, October 24, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time). As noted by Citron in its note, the last time Tesla held an earnings call on an October, “revenue beat the consensus by 21%.”

As of writing, Tesla stock is up 5.85% at $276.22 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete

Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.

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Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites

It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.

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Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.

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Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.

SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.

The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.

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SpaceX makes $20 billion move to optimize its balance sheet

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX announced today that it commenced its first-ever public bond offering, marking a significant step in the newly public company’s capital markets strategy.

The company announced an offering of senior unsecured notes expected to raise at least $20 billion.

The move comes just a short time after SpaceX completed one of the largest initial public offerings in history. In mid-June, the company priced shares at $135 and raised more than $85 billion, propelling founder Elon Musk’s net worth past the trillion-dollar mark and giving the firm substantial liquidity.

According to the company’s SEC filing, the net proceeds from the notes will be used primarily to repay in full the outstanding borrowings under its existing bridge loan facility, cover related fees and expenses, and fund general corporate purposes. The offering is being conducted under Rule 144A, as well as Regulation S, targeting qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors. Notes will be unsecured obligations ranking equally with other unsubordinated debt.

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The $20 billion bridge loan was used to refinance approximately $17.5 billion in higher-cost “junk” debt tied to X and xAI. SpaceX had merged with xAI in February 2026 in an all-stock deal. The bridge facility, which matures in September 2027, had represented the bulk of SpaceX’s long-term debt.

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In connection with the bond launch, SpaceX disclosed it held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19. Investor calls began on the announcement date, with pricing and launch expected shortly thereafter. Rating agencies have assigned investment-grade ratings to the proposed bonds, reflecting confidence in SpaceX’s dominant position in commercial launches and the growth trajectory of its Starlink internet offering.

The debt raise also allows SpaceX to optimize its balance sheet by replacing short-term, higher-cost bridge financing with longer-date, lower-cost fixed-income securities. This provides greater financial flexibility to support capital-intensive initiatives, including the development of Starship, the expansion of the Starlink constellation, and the integration of AI capabilities following the xAI combination.

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SpaceX shares (NASDAQ: SPCX) fell sharply on the news, dropping over 16 percent overall on the market on Monday. The stock had surged initially after debuting but pulled back amid profit-taking and broader market dynamics.

Overall, the bond offering underscores SpaceX’s transition to a mature public company with access to diverse funding sources. It positions the firm to pursue its long-term vision of multiplanetary expansion and AI infrastructure, while maintaining a disciplined approach to its capital structure in a high-growth but capital-heavy industry.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX is launching a secret spacecraft that could change how things are made in space

SpaceX’s secret disk-shaped Starfall capsule is targeting a market no reentry vehicle has cracked.

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SpaceX is targeting Tuesday, June 23 for the first flight of Starfall, a reentry capsule the company has developed almost entirely in private. The Falcon 9 launch window opens at 6:43 a.m. ET from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, with a backup window available the same time on June 24. SpaceX has made no public announcement about the vehicle, only providing launch details. Everything known about it has come through FAA and FCC regulatory filings.

What makes Starfall different starts with its shape. Rather than the traditional cone used by Dragon and every other cargo return capsule in operation, Starfall is a flat disk that measures roughly  10.2 feet (3.1 meters) wide and just 2.5 feet (0.75 meters) tall, and weighing 4,630 pounds (2,100 kg) and capable of returning up to 2,200 pounds (1,000 kilograms) of payload from orbit. The disk geometry maximizes structural efficiency and payload volume relative to mass, and the heat shield mechanically jettisons just before splashdown, allowing recovery teams to retrieve both the capsule and the shield separately from the Pacific Ocean.

The difference with Starfall from existing competitors, such as Varda Space Industries, which has largely built the orbital manufacturing market and returns heavy payloads per flight is that Starfall’s specification is roughly 30 times more per mission, and is designed to be mass-produced and launched on either Falcon 9 or Starship. That combination of volume and launch access is something no standalone startup can replicate, and it puts SpaceX in direct competition with the companies that currently pay it to reach orbit.

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The intended market is orbital manufacturing: pharmaceuticals, protein crystals, semiconductors, and advanced optical fiber that physically cannot be produced in the presence of gravity. FAA documents describe Starfall’s long-term purpose as building a “self-sustaining commercial in-space manufacturing market” and as a potential successor to the industrial capabilities of the International Space Station, which is set to retire in the late 2020s. Military rapid global cargo delivery is a parallel application under active discussion with the Pentagon.

The reason some industries seek manufacturing in space comes down to gravity. On Earth, gravity causes materials to settle, separate, and deform during production. In microgravity, those constraints disappear.

SpaceX’s already controls launch access, which means it currently functions as the landlord for every competitor in the orbital manufacturing return space. Starfall converts that landlord position into vertical ownership, and it would no longer just carry other companies’ capsules to orbit, but rather operate the capsule, own the return logistics, and capture the service revenue directly. Viewed alongside Starlink, Colossus, and the xAI merger, Starfall fits a consistent pattern: SpaceX identifying infrastructure layers that others depend on and moving to own them outright. Orbital manufacturing return is the next layer on that list.

If Tuesday’s reentry, parachute sequence, and recovery demonstration goes as planned, the second FAA-approved test flight follows. A successful pair of demos would position SpaceX to begin offering Starfall as a commercial service, likely first to pharmaceutical and materials science customers before scaling toward the military and broader manufacturing segments.

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